Bharat Barometer - September 2025

Macroeconomic indicators (Score:3/5*)

• CPI and WPI both softened and remained at subdued levels, while GST collection growth rose to high single-digit levels. Services and Manufacturing PMI both declined MoM but stayed in the expansionary zone; unemployment declined in rural areas but rose in urban areas.

External sector (Score:1/5*)

• Growth of goods exports as well as services both declined sharply to low single-digit levels, and imports of goods and services both contracted YoY. FDI net inflows rose MoM and remained strong, but FII flows continued their decline for the third consecutive month in September.

Central government finance (Score:2/5*)

• Subsidy payout degrowth continued in August’25, and cumulative direct tax collections remained in the degrowth zone for the third straight month. Capital expenditure growth surged in August, while Revenue expenditure experienced degrowth.

Industrial activity (Score:2/5*)

• Petroleum products consumption growth rose to high single-digit levels, and steel consumption growth remained stable at a high single-digit level. Coal offtake degrows while Power generation growth was muted, and E-way bill generation growth stayed strong despite moderating marginally MoM.

Demand & consumption (Score:4/5*)

• Air passenger traffic rose MoM in August’25 after four consecutive months of decline, and premium growth for both life insurance and non-life insurance rose to double-digit levels. Overall auto registrations growth rose to a mid-single-digit level, though PV sales degrows, and foreign tourists’ arrival in India rose in June’25.

Banking and money flow (Score:4/5*)

• Money supply growth remained stable at a low double-digit level, while credit growth rose marginally and deposits growth experienced a minor fall. UPI transactions growth softened marginally but stayed very strong, IMPS growth turned positive, and Fastag collections growth softened to low-teen levels.

Rural indicators (Score:3/5*)

• Fertilizer sales growth revived after three consecutive months of muted demand, and the reservoir level YoY growth remained stable at mid-single-digit levels for the second consecutive month. Tractor sales growth rose strongly, while 2W sales growth softened to lower double-digit levels; rural employment growth softened to mid-single-digit levels.

Capital market (Score:2/5*)

• Net new SIPs registered positive for the fifth consecutive month but declined MoM, while Equity MF net inflows declined MoM but remained strong. Growth in SIP contributions remained stable following three quarters of moderation, and trading volume continued to degrow YoY, though the extent of degrowth reduced.

Disclaimer : This content is only for informational purpose. It does not make any recommendation to act or invest.

Source : HDFC Securities Institutional Equities

To see full report and disclaimer, click at : https://www.hdfcsec.com/hsl.docs/Bharat%20Barometer%20-%20Sept25%20-%20HSIE-202510141614434427102.pdf?t=14102025162720625