India-US Mini Trade Deal Likely Within 48 Hours as Deadline Nears

New Delhi, July 7, 2025 – India and the United States appear close to finalising a mini trade agreement within the next 48 hours, just ahead of a critical July 9 deadline. The development follows intense negotiations, with Indian officials emphasising the protection of domestic industries and fair access to the US market.

Setting non-negotiable boundaries, Indian officials refuse to negotiate on sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy. With the final offer submitted, India seeks a waiver of the additional 26% tariff on Indian goods, while the standard 10% tariff remains in place.

Deal Nearing Completion

Sources confirm that talks between the two nations are substantially complete, with both sides reportedly agreeing on key provisions. The focus of the pact is to boost trade in sectors like textiles and leather, which are crucial to employment generation in India.

India has already submitted its final offer, placing the next move squarely in the hands of Washington. If reached, the agreement could potentially represent a significant step forward in bilateral trade relations.

India Sets Non-Negotiable Boundaries

India has set non-negotiable boundaries, especially concerning sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy. Indian officials have refused US requests to lower import duties on American farm and dairy products, citing the need to safeguard domestic interests.

Reinforcing India’s firm stance on the same, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal stated that India will not rush into an agreement just to meet a deadline.

Background and Tariff Pressure

The urgency to reach an agreement stems from the USA’s announcement to impose an additional 26% tariff on Indian goods as of April 2, 2025. The tariff was temporarily suspended for 90 days; however, the suspension ends on July 9, 2025. While the standard 10% tariff remains, India is seeking full exemption from the added duties. Failure to reach an agreement could see these tariffs reinstated.

Sticking Points and Scope

Though the deal may be termed “interim,” unresolved issues remain. These include high US tariffs on Indian steel (50%) and automobiles (25%). Meanwhile, the US has urged India to lower tariffs on industrial goods, electric vehicles, wines, petrochemicals, and agricultural items such as apples and nuts.

India, in contrast, is offering limited tariff concessions on labour-intensive exports like garments, jewellery, plastics, fruits, vegetables, and shrimp.

What’s Next?

With the ball now in Washington’s court, the next 48 hours will be crucial. If the US administration signs off on the terms, the mini trade deal could be announced just in time to avert the return of stiff tariffs.

Both nations began discussions on a broader Bilateral Trade Agreement in February, targeting a phased approach. This mini deal would serve as a building block toward that long-term goal.

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