Key Events Around the Globe That Investors Must Know: Jan 21

Analysts See BoE Rate Cuts Ahead As U.K. Wages Cool, Unemployment Stays High

The UK unemployment rate remained steady at 5.1% in the three months to November, while wage growth retreated, suggesting the Bank of England will likely continue cutting interest rates in 2026.

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, the jobless rate stayed at its highest level since early 2021. Meanwhile, pay growth across the whole economy, excluding bonuses, fell to an annual 4.5% rate, down from 4.6% the previous month.

China’s 2025 Trade With North Korea Rebounds to Pre-COVID Levels

China’s trade with North Korea in 2025 rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, customs data showed, as ties between the two countries improved after Kim Jong Un’s visit to Beijing.

Two-way trade value in 2025 rose 25% from a year earlier to $2.73 billion, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs.

That was close to the $2.79 billion that was recorded in 2019, before a two-year slump caused by pandemic-related border restrictions.

Bilateral trade dropped 5% in 2024 from a year earlier to $2.18 billion.

U.K. Unemployment Rate Remained at 5.1% in November

The U.K. unemployment rate remained at an elevated rate in November while wage growth retreated, data showed, suggesting further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England are likely as the new yearprogresses.

According to the Office for National Statistics, the jobless rate remained at 5.1% in the three months to November, thesame level as the prior month,and the highest level since early 2021.

The Bank of England has indicated that unemployment may remain around the 5% level for the next two years, while economists in a recent survey by the Times newspaper predicted unemployment could rise to between 5% and 5.5% by the end of 2026, which would be the highest level in over a decade, excluding the pandemic.

Source – HDFC Commodity Daily, 21 Jan 2026

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