OPEC+ Keeps Output Steady as Member Turmoil Builds

Mumbai, 5 January 2026: OPEC+ maintained its oil output policy following an online meeting that took place on 4 January 2026. The group maintained the hold on scheduled output increments in January, February and March 2026.

Output Policy Held Through March 2026

The current plan on the volumes to be supplied during the first quarter was reaffirmed by eight members. The involved nations were Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE and Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman. The group did not change its fresh supply even in the face of new geopolitical pressure that involved a number of producer states. The ruling was an extension of the agreement that was achieved in November 2025 to maintain output targets at a constant level through March 2026.

Oversupply Concern After 2025 Price Slide

In 2025, oil prices dropped over 18 per cent, the largest annual drop since 2020. The fall was monitored over supply fears and a market that remained over-supplied till the end of the year. The ruling maintained stability in terms of policy following the decline in the previous year. The output goals were already increasing by 2025 to approximately 2.9 million barrels per day as a market-share push, and the present position paused the increases with the winter demand season.

Political Turmoil Spreads Across Key Producers

In a number of the producing countries, political uncertainty remained high. In December 2025, Saudi Arabia and the UAE experienced a more acute rift in society with regard to the conflict in Yemen.

Tighter sanctions on the war in Ukraine continued to put pressure on the crude exports of Russia. New U.S. warnings led to protests and high tensions in Iran. The combination of crises increased attention to the threat of supply disruption, yet the market had sufficient buffer supply to restrict an immediate price spike in early trade.

February 1 Meeting Set for Next Review

The eight-country group planned to hold its next policy meeting on 1 February 2026. The date serves as the second gateway to any modification of the first quarter plan. The market is also focused on winter demand and supply, as well as the risk of export interruptions in politically strained areas. The output settings remain the same unless the group makes another decision in the February meeting.

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