Prime Research Commodity: Gol͏d and Silver Edge͏ Low͏er b͏y 0͏.3͏0% and 2.93% as ͏US CP͏I͏ Data Fue͏l͏s͏ Dollar Strength and Rate͏ C͏u͏t Uncertainty 

͏Mu͏mbai, March 12: Pre͏cious metals ͏witnesse͏d a sharp decline in We͏d͏nesday’s tradin͏g͏ session ͏as t͏he lates͏t U͏nited States consumer͏ price index (CPI) data failed to a͏l͏l͏eviate market concerns ove͏r es͏calati͏ng geopolitical tensions in the Mi͏ddle ͏East. The February i͏nflati͏on fi͏gure͏s, coupled with r͏ising ͏ener͏gy c͏osts, have pus͏hed͏ US Treasury yields highe͏r and strengthened the dollar ͏index, whic͏h ros͏e͏ 0.͏41% to 99.231, cre͏ating sign͏ificant h͏ead͏win͏ds ͏f͏or bullion. ͏Comex g͏old set͏tled 0.30% lower at $5,176.46͏, while͏ silver bore th͏e͏ brunt of the selling pressure, plunging 2.93%͏ ͏to $85.7419.

Cr͏ude Oil Surg͏es͏ 4.͏55% to $8͏7.25 as͏ I͏ran C͏on͏flict Escalates and Tan͏ker Attacks Disru͏p͏t Midd͏le ͏E͏ast Energy͏ F͏lows

Crude oil p͏rices climbed sha͏rply in another volatile tra͏din͏g session as e͏s͏calati͏ng rheto͏ri͏c fro͏m glob͏al leader͏s o͏v͏er t͏he Iran co͏nflict outweighed the im͏pact of an emergency ͏crude r͏eserv͏e͏ release by major economies. W͏est͏ Texas In͏t͏e͏rmedia͏t͏e͏ (WTI) cru͏de jumped 4.55% ͏to settle at $87.25 on Wednesd͏ay, e͏xt͏en͏ding gain͏s dur͏ing Thursday’s Asian͏ session after Oman cleared sh͏ips from ͏a key oi͏l export terminal

͏Reports emerged that two tankers were attacked in Iraqi waters, highlighting widening risks to energy flows across the Middle East. Iran has reportedly told regional intermediaries that any ceasefire would require US guarantees that neither it nor Israel would strike the country again—terms that Washington is unlikely to accept, further dimming hopes for a near-term resolution.

Natural Gas Jumps 6.26% to $3.209 as Qatar LNG Terminal Outage and Strait of Hormuz Closure Disrupt Global Supplies

Natural gas extended its rally for a second consecutive session, climbing 6.26% to $3.209, as markets continued to focus on the escalating conflict in the Middle East. The war has severely disrupted global energy flows, with the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal at Ras Laffan in Qatar experiencing its longest outage since at least 2008, while the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The supply disruptions from the region, which accounts for a significant portion of global LNG trade, have intensified concerns over energy security and pushed prices higher despite broader market volatility.

Aluminium Hits Three-Year High, Surges 1.50% to $3,457 as Middle East Conflict Forces Output Cuts

Aluminium prices rose for a third consecutive day, climbing 1.50% to settle at $3,457, their highest level since April 2022, as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East raised concerns about deeper supply disruptions from regional producers. The war has forced output cuts at smelters in a region that accounts for roughly 9% of global production, tightening supply fundamentals. LME copper, however, bucked the trend, slipping 0.75% to $13,042, while zinc and lead also registered losses of 1.09% and 0.39% respectively, as mixed industrial demand signals emerged from key consuming regions.

Dollar Index Climbs 0.41% to 99.231 as Fed Rate Cut Expectations Diminish Following February CPI Data

The dollar index strengthened by 0.41% to 99.231 as markets scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve easing following the February CPI report. Forecasts now point to only one rate cut later this year, a significant shift from earlier expectations of multiple reductions. The euro weakened 0.38% against the dollar to 1.1567, while the Indian rupee depreciated 0.26% to 92.041 against the US dollar. The latest CPI report does not yet reflect the sharp increase in fuel costs since the Middle East conflict escalated nearly two weeks ago, suggesting that persistent price pressures could force major central banks to remain cautious on monetary easing in the coming months.

Global Equities Mixed: Nikkei Gains 1.43% While Sensex Plunges 1.72% on Geopolitical Worries

Global equity markets presented a mixed picture as geopolitical tensions weighed on investor sentiment. India’s BSE Sensex tumbled 1.72% to 76,864, while Japan’s Nikkei bucked the trend with a strong 1.43% gain to 55,025. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.24% to 25,899, and China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.25% to 4,133. In the United States, the S&P 500 fell 0.08% to 6,776, while the Dow Jones declined 0.61% to 47,417. European markets also ended in negative territory, with Germany’s DAX dropping 1.37% to 23,640 and France’s CAC index slipping 0.19% to 8,042.

MCX Trading Activity: Crude Oil Volumes Surge 138,333 Lots While Gold Open Interest Contracts 1%

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), trading activity remained robust across key commodities. Crude oil futures for March 2026 expiry saw substantial trading volumes of 138,333 lots, though open interest contracted by 2%. Gold futures for April expiry recorded volumes of 3,917 lots with open interest declining 1% to 7,552 contracts. Natural gas witnessed a 6% increase in open interest to 20,950 contracts with volumes of 93,752 lots, reflecting growing market participation amid the supply disruption concerns. Silver futures for May expiry saw open interest decline 3% to 5,848 contracts with volumes of 5,147 lots.

Technical Indicators Signal Mixed Momentum: Crude Oil RSI at 70.9 While Copper Remains Oversold at 43.5

Technical indicators across commodities revealed divergent momentum patterns. Crude oil’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 70.9, signalling overbought conditions, while natural gas registered a reading of 57.3. Gold’s RSI settled at a neutral 53.8, indicating balanced momentum, whereas silver showed relative weakness at 48.8. Among base metals, aluminium demonstrated strong bullish momentum with an RSI of 72.4, while copper remained in oversold territory at 43.5. The 5-day and 20-day moving averages for most commodities suggested continued volatility, with crude oil trading well above its 20-day moving average of 6,726, confirming the strong upward trend.

Actionable Takeaways: The interplay between Middle East geopolitical tensions and US monetary policy expectations continues to drive commodity price volatility. Investors should monitor crude oil’s reaction to potential diplomatic developments regarding the Iran conflict, while precious metals remain sensitive to upcoming Federal Reserve communications. Base metal traders face mixed signals from supply disruptions and demand concerns, warranting careful position sizing amid uncertain market conditions.