Global Crude Oil Prices Soar by 6% to $97 Following Iran-US Talks Breakdown, Pull Back to $95 by End of Week as Ceasefire Prospects Weaken 

Mumbai, June 6: A week of extreme price swings in global energy markets ended with both Brent and WTI benchmarks posting their first weekly gains in three weeks. Brent crude surged 6% to an intra-week high of $98.19 per barrel after Iran suspended talks with the US, before retreating to $95.24 by Friday.  

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed over 6% for the week to around $91 per barrel. In India, petrol crossed Rs 115 per litre in Hyderabad, and the RBI cut its FY27 GDP forecast to 6.6%, warning of 36 basis points of inflationary pressure from higher fuel costs. 

Brent Up by 6 Per cent to Reach $97.02 Following Iran’s Termination of US Negotiations  

According to reports from government-controlled Iranian media outlets on 1 June, Iran had cut off its talks with the US regarding ending the war, eliminating two weeks of decline in prices. On Monday, the price of Brent oil rose by 6 percent to reach $97.02 per barrel, while WTI rose by 7.5% to $93.93. The prices of US Crude ended higher by 5.5%, ending at $92.16. Also, Brent rose 4.5%, ending at $94.98. 

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The Tehran authorities halted “the exchange of texts via mediators” in protest against the Israeli expanding attacks in Lebanon, adding that the Iranians would be determined to consider shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. The US president, Donald Trump, declared that the Americans would continue to hold up their blockade on Iranian ports, although he posted later that negotiations were ongoing. 

Oil Dips 1% as Ceasefire Hopes Emerge, MCX Futures Slip To ₹8,697 

On 2 June, prices saw a slight dip after Trump indicated that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to halt hostilities. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the June contract slipped 0.45% to ₹8,697 per barrel. Globally, Brent futures fell 1% to $94.03 and WTI slipped 1.10% to $91.15. However, market participants remained cautious as attacks continued and officials cast doubt on the durability of the arrangement. 

Crude Climbs to $98.19 On Wednesday as Supply Risks Mount, Inventories Hit 2024 Lows 

On 3 June, Brent climbed 1.6% to $97.56, reaching an intra-week high of $98.19 , as renewed Middle East tensions and falling global inventories drove prices higher. Exxon Mobil senior vice president Neil Chapman warned that dated Brent could rise to $150‑$160 a barrel if inventory levels drop much further. US crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell to 791 million barrels – the lowest since February 2024 – down almost 64 million barrels since the start of the war. JPMorgan predicted rapid price appreciation unless Strait of Hormuz throughput normalises. 

Oil Pulls Back 2.8% on Thursday After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Agreed 

On 4 June, prices moved lower following a conditional ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. US crude fell 3.1% to settle at $93.04 , while Brent dropped 2.84% to $95.03. Trump signalled that negotiations with Iran were progressing, raising expectations that a broader agreement could ease energy flow disruptions. 

WTI Gains Over 6% for Week Despite Friday’s Slide as Hezbollah Rejects Ceasefire 

On 5 June, oil prices slipped slightly after Hezbollah rejected a US‑backed ceasefire proposal. Brent fell 0.22% to $95.24 , and WTI fell 0.11% to $92.94 , but both benchmarks recorded their first weekly gain in three weeks – WTI up over 6% . Iran’s oil exports fell to their lowest level in six years due to the US naval blockade, according to shipping data. 

India’s Petrol Crosses Rs 115 In Hyderabad On, OMCs Lose Rs 1,700 Crore Daily 

Domestic fuel prices remained elevated following four rounds of hikes since mid‑May. On 5 June, petrol was costliest in Hyderabad at Rs 115.73 per litre, followed by Kolkata (Rs 113.51), Mumbai (Rs 112.21), Bengaluru (Rs 110.89), and Chennai (Rs 108.01). Diesel in Hyderabad stood at Rs 103.82 per litre. Since 15 May, petrol and diesel rates have risen cumulatively by roughly Rs 7.5 per litre – petrol up 7.8% and diesel up 8.6% . State‑run oil marketing companies were still incurring combined daily losses of Rs 1,600‑1,700 crore , totalling over Rs 1 lakh crore in 10 weeks. 

RBI Warns of 36 Bps Inflation Impact, Cuts FY27 GDP Forecast to 6.6% On Oil Shock 

On 5 June, the RBI warned that recent petrol and diesel price hikes could directly add about 36 basis points to headline inflation. The central bank kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% but cut its FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6.6% from 6.9%, while raising the inflation outlook to 5.1% from 4.6%. Former IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath warned that elevated oil prices could slow India’s growth to around 6% , and if the conflict continues for another month, oil could reach $120‑$140 a barrel. 

OPEC+ Likely to Raise Production Quotas as Demand Forecast Holds at 1.2 Mmbpd 

The OPEC+ meeting scheduled for 7 June is expected to agree to further increase crude production quotas for July to stabilise prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA), IMF and World Bank have warned that if the conflict continues, global oil reserves could fall to historically low levels. Some experts warn of supply shortages in Europe and Asia that could push oil prices to $150‑$160 per barrel in a worst‑case scenario. OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026. 

Crude oil prices rose during the week of 1–5 June 2026 after the collapse of Iran–US talks and declining US inventories heightened supply concerns. Brent ended near $95 per barrel, while WTI gained over 6%. In India, rising fuel costs increased inflation concerns, and markets are now awaiting the OPEC+ meeting on 7 June for clues on future supply.