Vikram Samvat 2082 – What are the prospects of SBI stock?

State Bank of India’s (SBI) shares have gained 12.08% year-to-date (YTD) in 2025, as on 15^th October. In the same period, Nifty 50 index has gained 7.46%. Nifty Bank Index has gained 12.34% YTD in 2025. So SBI’s stock has marginally underperformed the benchmark Nifty Bank index in 2025. It has however outperformed the Nifty 50 index by more than 4% this year.

SBI’s shares have gained 353.69% in the past 5 years

In the past 5 years, SBI’s shares have gained 353.69%. In the same period, Nifty Bank index gained 143.80%. Nifty 50 index gained 116.91% in the past 5 years. So SBI’s shares have outperformed the Nifty Bank index by more than 210% in the past 5 years. It has outperformed the Nifty 50 index by more than 230% in this period.

Prospects of SBI shares in the next one year

What are the likely prospects of SBI’s shares in the next one year? The Hindu year, Vikram Samvat 2082, is going on. And SBI stock may have scope to gain more in the next one year. The stock is currently trading near its 52-week high price. On 16^th October, 2025, 2:15 p.m. the share price is up by 0.56%, trading at Rs 891.10.

Lower interest rate scenario may benefit SBI

US Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell has indicated that US central bank will go for another interest rate cut before the end of this year. There is the likelihood that US central bank will cut interest rate by 25 basis points (0.25%) in its next monetary policy meeting on October 28^th – 29^th.  If this happens, then there is the probability that RBI too may go for another interest rate cut.

A lower interest rate scenario is beneficial for SBI in the way that it will increase demand for loans from customers. Cost of loan for borrowers goes down with lower interest rate. This in turn increases demand for loans. Any adverse impact on net interest margin because of lowering of interest rate can be offset by lowering the interest rate that the bank offers to its depositors. Net interest margin of a bank is the difference between the interest rate that it charges from its borrowers and the interest rate that it pays to its depositors.

Lower interest rates will also give a boost to Indian economy. Lower interest rates lower the cost of interest-sensitive investment and consumption. This in turn increases general demand in the economy. With overall demand increasing, demand for loans will also go up.

Another advantage of lower interest scenario for SBI is that it may have a positive impact on its non-performing assets (NPAs). NPAs are loans given by a bank on which borrowers have defaulted. When interest rates are higher, default rates on loans tend to go up. When interest rates are lower, default rates on loans also tend to go down. Gross non-performing assets (GNPA) ratio of SBI at the end of June quarter stood at 1.83%. GNPA ratio is the percentage of total loans given by a bank on which defaults have happened and payments are overdue.

SBI’s stock has a positive correlation with the state of Indian economy

The price movement in the shares of SBI have a strong positive correlation with the state of Indian economy. So the big risks before SBI in the next 1 year come from the headwinds that the Indian economy is facing.

If a trade deal with US does not happen and the present 50% tariff on Indian goods remain in US, then Indian economy will see considerable slowdown. This in turn will have an adverse impact on the stock of SBI. On the other hand, if a trade deal happens, and the Indian economy sustains its current growth trajectory then SBI’s share price may touch higher 52-week highs in the next one year.

Disclaimer : This content is only for informational purpose. It does not make any recommendation to act or invest.

Source: NSE