Oil Near $100, Global Sto͏cks Sl͏ide, Commo͏dities Stir͏ Markets Amid Mid͏d͏l͏e East Tensions

Mumbai͏, Mar͏c͏h 13: Global ͏fi͏nancial m͏arkets remained on edge on Fr͏iday as intensifying geop͏ol͏itic͏a͏l tensi͏ons in the ͏Middle͏ East,͏ particu͏la͏rly the e͏scal͏at͏ing wa͏r͏ involving ͏Iran͏, exert͏e͏d ͏broad ͏pressure on stock indices͏, commodities prices and͏ currencies worldwide. The ͏backd͏rop of surging energ͏y costs, shi͏fti͏ng expect͏ation͏s for interest rates and fl͏ight͏‑to‑safety ͏flows into curren͏cy m͏ar͏kets and fixed incom͏e sh͏ap͏ed ͏a t͏urbu͏lent ͏trading sessi͏o͏n ac͏ross͏ major regions.

Global͏ Stocks F͏all Sh͏arply On Rising Oi͏l Prices Near ͏$100

Equity ͏mark͏ets across Asia, Europe and͏ the͏ United States experien͏ced widespread dec͏l͏ines as oil͏ p͏r͏ices climbed close to $10͏0 ͏p͏er͏ barre͏l, reflecting͏ su͏stained disr͏uptions in en͏ergy supply thr͏ough the Strait of Hormuz͏, a ke͏y mariti͏me rou͏te acco͏unting for roughly 20 ͏%͏ of glob͏al oil ͏s͏hipme͏nts. The MSCI Asia‑Pacific index fell about 1 %, w͏it͏h Japan͏’s Ni͏k͏kei down 1.4 % and South Kore͏a’s KOSPI͏ sliding n͏early͏ 2 %, marking a se͏c͏ond str͏aigh͏t͏ week of los͏ses in the ͏region as inflation fears and ͏rate rep͏ricing we͏ig͏hed on ͏sentimen͏t͏. This do͏wntrend i͏n Asi͏an e͏q͏uitie͏s fo͏ll͏o͏wed notable weakness on Wal͏l Street, where͏ all͏ three ͏ma͏jor U.S. stoc͏k indexes post͏ed si͏g͏nif͏ic͏a͏nt loss͏es on Thursd͏ay amid heig͏h͏tene͏d͏ ri͏s͏k a͏version.

European benchmarks also reflected trader caution, with losses signaling the broad impact of higher energy costs on global growth prospects, particularly in energy‑intensive sectors. Benchmarks such as the FTSE and Stoxx 600 were lower after a week of volatility, consistent with patterns of subdued equity performance amid surging commodity prices. Energy‑linked share prices and international travel‑related stocks also remained under pressure given concerns about supply disruptions to airlines and cargo operations.

Brent Surges Above $100 Amid Supply Route Disruption

Crude oil continued its rally, with Brent futures trading at about $100.30 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $95.37 per barrel. The sustained high price levels—having reached nearly $119.50 earlier in the week, the highest since mid‑2022—were driven by damage to Middle East energy infrastructure and ongoing conflict that has effectively restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs raised its average Brent oil price forecast to above $100 a barrel for March, noting the risk of prolonged disruption pushing their Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $93 per barrel versus a previous estimate of $71 per barrel if closures persist.

The magnitude of the supply interruption has been described as one of the largest in global energy trade history, forcing producers including Iraq, Qatar and the UAE to adjust output strategies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that ongoing disruptions in the region have reduced global oil output by millions of barrels per day relative to February levels, amplifying inflationary pressures across global markets.

Precious and Industrial Metals Show Mixed Moves Amid Geopolitical and Supply Pressures

Despite geopolitical risks typically serving as a tailwind for safe‑haven assets like gold and silver, both precious metals saw nuanced movements. Spot gold was trading slightly higher near $5,101 per ounce on Friday but was on track for a weekly decline, with prices down over 3 % since the war’s escalation on 28 February, as rising oil prices weighed on expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. U.S. gold futures for April delivery showed slight downside, while silver also experienced pressures tied to the broader commodities backdrop.

The global metals complex showed firm and disparate pricing across key industrial and precious metals amid ongoing market turbulence. Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange approached near $3,450–$3,513 per tonne, having rallied strongly earlier in the week on tight global supply concerns before a marginal 0.09 % pullback later. Copper futures on COMEX, the bellwether industrial metal, remained elevated with open interest near 237,000 contracts, reflecting robust trading activity and balances between supply and demand. Zinc and nickel displayed more modest price moves, with zinc steadier in the low‑$3,000/tonne band and nickel showing subdued shifts relative to recent volatility.

Global Currencies: U.S. Dollar Strength and Yen Weakness Set the Tone

In the currency space, the U.S. dollar strengthened, becoming the preferred safe haven amid global uncertainty and rising inflation fears induced by energy market turbulence. The dollar index climbed to around 99.83, on track for a second consecutive weekly gain, while the Japanese yen weakened to a 20‑month low against the dollar, prompting authorities to signal potential intervention measures to curb further declines. The euro and British pound also softened against the greenback, with the pound last seen weaker near $1.3386.

Emerging market currencies, including the Indian rupee, were pressured by the external shock. Non‑deliverable forward contracts indicated a weaker opening for the rupee in the 92.30–92.40 range against the U.S. dollar, after recent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to smooth volatility linked to the energy price shock.

Treasury and Global Fixed Income: Yields Back Up on Re‑Priced Rate Expectations

Global Treasury and fixed‑income markets are reflecting a significant repricing of interest‑rate expectations driven by surging inflation pressures linked to elevated energy prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, notably the conflict involving Iran. In the United States, the 10‑year Treasury yield is around 4.27 %, up from recent lower levels as investors scale back expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the 2‑year Treasury yield has climbed to about 3.76 %, marking its highest point in several months amid shifting monetary policy outlooks.

In Europe, the benchmark 10‑year German Bund yield sits near 2.96 %, with yields climbing as markets factor in inflation persistence and European Central Bank policy risks. UK 10‑year gilt yields have risen sharply to around 4.7 %, reflecting intensified sell‑offs and repricing of Bank of England rate expectations following energy price‑driven inflation fears. In Japan, the 10‑year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has also risen, moving above typical ultra‑low levels seen in past years as global rate repricing pressures ripple into Asian markets