Prime Commodity March 13, 2026 Update: Gold Hovers Abov͏e ͏$5,100 But Heads for Secon͏d Weekly Drop as Middle East Tensions Ke͏ep Oil Nea͏r ͏$100

͏Mu͏mbai, March 13: ͏G͏old prices ͏rebounded above $5,100 ͏per ounce on Friday, recoveri͏ng ͏some losses after a ͏two-day decline, though the preci͏ous m͏etal͏ remains on course for ͏its͏ second consecutive week͏ly drop. ͏Th͏e uptick came as the U͏S dollar ste͏adied and crude prices fluctuated following their highest close͏ sin͏c͏e͏ Augu͏st 2022, with tensio͏ns in the͏ Middle East keeping oil hoverin͏g n͏ear the $͏100͏ p͏e͏r barr͏el mar͏k.

Middle East Conflict and Russian Oil Waiver Trigger Market Fluctuations Across Commodities

͏The partial recovery in bulli͏on fol͏low͏ed the White Hou͏se ͏authorising buyers to take de͏live͏ry of R͏ussian oil cargo͏es already at s͏ea,͏ a move aimed͏ at͏ easing͏ ͏pressu͏re on͏ global price͏s. Despite Friday’s gains, ͏go͏ld remains set t͏o fall ͏ap͏p͏roximatel͏y͏ 1% fo͏r͏ the w͏eek͏, whic͏h would͏ mark ͏the first time͏ sinc͏e November that the m͏etal has posted de͏clines for two co͏nse͏cu͏tive weeks.

The upward momentum in gold has slowed significantly since the US-Israeli war with Iran began nearly two weeks ago, with no clear resolution in sight. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted millions of barrels per day of supply, delivering what analysts describe as the largest hit to global production on record, causing oil prices to surge more than 9% on Thursday.

Fed Rate Cut Prospects Diminish as Borrowing Costs Pressure Precious Metals

Traders now see virtually no chance of a rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting and only about a 70% probability of a reduction later this year. Higher borrowing costs typically act as a headwind for precious metals, which do not offer interest payments to holders.

President Donald Trump and Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, struck defiant tones on the 13th day of the war, offering little relief to energy markets. The US announced a second authorisation allowing buyers to take delivery of Russian oil cargoes already at sea, which officials described as a “narrowly tailored, short-term measure” that would not provide any significant financial benefit to the Russian government.

Asian Markets Pare Losses While US Futures Advance on Second Russian Oil Waiver

A gauge of Asian equities was down 0.6% after falling as much as 1% earlier in the session, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, pointing to some relief for US markets after the benchmark index dropped 1.5% to its lowest level since November. The second temporary waiver allowing purchases of Russian oil aims to curb surging prices and ease inflation concerns across global markets.

WTI Crude Oil posted significant gains, closing at $95.73 compared to the previous $87.25, marking a 9.72% increase. Natural Gas edged up marginally by 0.75% to $3.233. Among base metals, Aluminium rose 1.72% to $3,516.50, while Copper and Zinc recorded marginal declines.

Currency Markets Reflect Dollar Strength as Euro and Rupee Weaken

The Dollar Index rose 0.51% to 99.739, while the Indian rupee weakened against the greenback, with USDINR trading at 92.196, up 0.17% from the previous close. The Euro declined 0.48% to $1.1512, reflecting the strength of the US currency amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Global Equity Indices Suffer Broad-Based Declines Across Major Markets

All major global equity indices ended in negative territory, with the Dow Jones falling 1.56% to 46,678 and the S&P 500 dropping 1.52% to 6,673. The Nasdaq composite declined 1.73% to 24,534. Asian markets also witnessed selling pressure, with the BSE Sensex falling 1.08% to 76,034, the Nikkei dropping 1.04% to 54,453, and the Hang Seng Index declining 0.70% to 25,717.

MCX Commodity Futures Show Mixed Trends Amid Geopolitical Tensions

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, Crude Oil futures for March expiry surged 8.60% to ₹8,804, with open interest rising 2% to 17,423 lots. Natural Gas futures gained 0.47% to ₹297.6, though open interest declined 7%. Gold futures for April expiry fell 0.94% to ₹1,60,271, while Silver futures for May expiry declined 0.20% to ₹2,67,962. Among base metals, Aluminium futures rose 1.54% to ₹350 with open interest declining marginally.

Actionable Takeaways: Market participants are monitoring the Strait of Hormuz disruption, which has removed millions of barrels from daily supply. The US authorisations for Russian oil cargoes already at sea represent temporary measures to ease prices. Federal Reserve policy next week will be scrutinised for any shifts in the rate trajectory, with current pricing suggesting no immediate reduction in borrowing costs.