Gift Nifty Points to Muted-to-Positive Start for Sensex, Nifty on Monday

Mumbai, Oct 5: Indian markets are likely to see a flat-to-positive opening on Monday, as Asian stocks traded in positive territory and US Wall Street closed in the green. Crude oil prices also declined but remain elevated. 

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the RBI is scheduled to take place from October 5 to 7. Investors will have to wait for the outcome of the meeting, which will be announced tomorrow morning. 

The US Fed in New York stated that there is no urgency to raise rates after the September hike. As a result, traders have reduced their expectations of a rate hike in October to 25% from around 70% a few days ago.  

GIFT Nifty is trading at a premium of 209.05 points, indicating the possibility of a gap-up opening. However, GIFT Nifty itself has not gained much from its previous close. 

Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until it fulfils its seven demands. This could prolong the war. 

The Indian benchmark index has been falling for eight consecutive weeks, marking a record over the past 25 years. So far, the Nifty has fallen 8.7% during this period. 

GIFT Nifty Signals Gap-Up Opening 

GIFT Nifty near-month futures (October expiry) were trading at 22,631 levels as of 7:50 AM (IST) on Monday. It was up by 20 points, or 0.09%, from its previous close. This means it was trading 209.05 points, or 0.93%, higher than Thursday’s closing level of the Nifty index, which stood at 22,421.95. 

Since GIFT Nifty has not gained much from its previous day’s close, we might see limited movement ahead of the RBI’s decision on Wednesday. 

Asian Stocks Rise on Monday Morning 

Asian markets traded mostly higher on Monday morning, led by Japan’s Nikkei, up 1,721.76 points, or 2.52 per cent, at 70,031.22, and Taiwan’s benchmark, up 2.49 per cent at 49,683.79. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.46 per cent to 7,003.74 and Australia’s ASX 200 rose 0.32 per cent to 8,709.9. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.21 per cent to 23,921.53, while Singapore’s Straits Times rose 19.48 points to 5,654.3. Shanghai and Shenzhen showed unchanged readings as mainland markets remain shut for the National Day holiday. 

Wall Street Ends in the Green 

US markets ended higher on Friday, led by the Nasdaq 100, which gained 306.37 points, or about 1 per cent, to 30,807.93. The transport index jumped 2.07 per cent to 20,009.75 and the Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.94 per cent to 2,832.9. The NYSE Composite added 0.54 per cent to 23,654.31 and the utilities index gained 0.49 per cent to 1,018.02. 

Brent Eases but Stays Above 100 Dollars 

Crude oil eased in delayed trade on Monday, with Brent crude down 0.75 dollars, or 0.73 per cent, at 101.50 dollars a barrel and West Texas Intermediate down 1.05 dollars, or 1.15 per cent, at 90.06 dollars. Abu Dhabi’s Murban crude bucked the trend, rising 1.42 dollars, or 1.30 per cent, to 110.82 dollars. Iran’s stand on Hormuz, the conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas before the war, keeps supply risks alive. 

Iran Holds Firm on Hormuz 

Iran’s parliament speaker and top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen until seven Iranian conditions based on the June interim agreement with the US are met. Iran’s proposal would restore normal passage within seven days if those conditions are met, and an official briefed on the talks said the dispute centres on sequencing, not components. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the US response matched its earlier positions on the nuclear issue and denied that Tehran had offered inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran hopes Washington chooses diplomacy but will respond to renewed military action, while the army said it would upgrade its missile range. 

Sensex, Nifty End Eighth Weekly Loss 

Markets were shut on Friday for Gandhi Jayanti, so Thursday’s session was the last of the week, when the Sensex fell 570.59 points, or 0.79 per cent, to 71,909.70 and the Nifty declined 198.50 points, or 0.88 per cent, to 22,421.95. The Nifty lost 3.1 per cent for the week and the Sensex 2.7 per cent, their steepest weekly declines in more than six and four months respectively, with the eight-week losses at 8.7 per cent and 8.4 per cent. Breadth was firmly negative, with 2,916 stocks falling against 1,306 rising, as auto, media, FMCG, infrastructure, metal, consumer durables and realty indices lost 2 to 3 per cent. Bajaj Auto fell 7.62 per cent to Rs 10,045, while the Nifty IT index gained 2.2 per cent. 

Source

•  nseix.com