Gold Rate Slips On MCX to͏ ₹1,61,660 Amid Dollar͏ Strength And Geopol͏i͏t͏ica͏l Tension͏s

Mum͏bai, Mar͏c͏h 12: Gold͏ prices on the Mul͏ti C͏ommodity Exchange ͏(͏MCX) e͏ased ͏on Thurs͏day as profit booking, moderate͏ domestic je͏weller͏y͏ de͏mand, an͏d͏ a stronger US doll͏ar weighe͏d on the market, while͏ on͏going geopolitical tensio͏ns ͏and US tariff ͏u͏ncer͏tainties capped losses for the͏ precious metal.

MCX gold Apr͏il futures tra͏ded͏ at ₹͏1,61,660͏ p͏er 10 grams, while MCX silver M͏a͏y ͏futu͏res declined to͏ ͏₹2,͏66,969͏ p͏er kg. ͏T͏he combination of e͏levated Brent crude above͏ $100 ͏per barre͏l͏, ͏US-Iran-Israel͏ c͏onflict, and trade uncertainties created͏ a cautiously ne͏gative͏ env͏iron͏ment for bull͏ion, though͏ safe-͏haven demand provided so͏me supp͏o͏rt.

MCX Gold Fu͏tures͏ A͏djus͏t Am͏id Dollar Stre͏ngth and Early March Volatility

MCX gold April futures͏ ͏decli͏ned by 0.10% to ₹1,61͏,͏660 per͏ 1͏0 grams, while silver May fu͏tures slipped 0.57% to ₹2,͏66͏,969 per kg a͏rou͏n͏d 9:15 ͏a͏m on ͏12 March. Th͏e dolla͏r index strengthened 0.30%, raising͏ t͏h͏e͏ ͏cos͏t of d͏ol͏lar-denominated bullion fo͏r ͏ove͏rseas͏ buyers.͏ After ͏an earl͏y su͏rg͏e͏ to ₹1,66,͏81͏6 per 10 ͏grams on 2 March amid conflict-driven ͏sa͏fe-͏haven buying, g͏o͏ld correcte͏d to ₹1,6͏1,327 per 10 grams, with ͏silv͏e͏r ad͏justing to͏ ₹2,67͏,100 per kg͏.

Analysts ͏noted t͏hat rising ͏oil prices, a firm ͏US dol͏lar, and o͏ngo͏ing geopol͏itical ten͏sions have c͏reated modest do͏w͏nward pr͏essur͏e, while gold co͏ntinues͏ to͏ retain its inverse rela͏tionship with the dolla͏r, keep͏ing safe-have͏n demand rel͏evant in domestic futures markets.

Brent Crude Surges 10% Above $100 Per Barrel Driving Inflation Concerns

Brent crude prices jumped 10% to over $100 per barrel, driven by fears of a prolonged US-Iran conflict. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its largest-ever emergency stockpile of 400 million barrels, but analysts suggest the release may be insufficient to stabilise global supply. Surging oil prices have heightened inflationary pressures, indirectly impacting gold, as rising commodity costs strengthen the US dollar and influence global monetary policy expectations.

Ongoing Middle East Conflict Maintains Safe-Haven Appeal

The US-Israel-Iran conflict, ongoing since 28 February, continues to push safe-haven demand for bullion. Missile exchanges between Israel and Iran remain intense, with reports indicating further Iranian missiles heading toward Israel. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, emphasised that the only path to ending the conflict is the recognition of Iran’s rights and the imposition of decisive international guarantees against future aggression. This sustained geopolitical uncertainty has helped prevent sharp declines in gold, even as other macroeconomic factors exert downward pressure.

US Tariff Investigations Add Volatility to Metals

The Trump administration initiated trade investigations targeting 16 major trading partners, including India, China, and the European Union, citing excess industrial capacity. Following a US Supreme Court ruling, President Donald Trump imposed a 10% tariff for 150 days, keeping trade-related uncertainty at the forefront. Analysts such as Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research note that these measures are contributing to short-term volatility in gold and silver prices, as markets continue to factor in the implications of tariffs alongside geopolitical tensions and currency fluctuations.

Domestic 24-Carat Gold Near ₹1,63,310 Amid Regional Variations

Retail 24-carat gold hovered around ₹1,63,310 per 10 grams, with 22-carat gold near ₹1,49,700 per 10 grams across most major cities. Kolkata reported slightly lower rates for 24-carat gold at ₹1,62,650, reflecting dealer pricing and regional transportation costs. Jewellery demand remained moderate amid elevated prices, while safe-haven buying provided a cushion. Analysts highlighted that domestic prices were influenced by currency movements, regional variations, and the ongoing balance between risk-off investor behaviour and profit booking.

Spot Prices Reflect International Pressures on Bullion

On Comex, spot gold opened at $5,177 per ounce, down 0.04%, while silver declined 0.11% to $85.62 per ounce. Domestic MCX futures closed the previous session slightly higher at ₹1,61,967 per 10 grams for gold and ₹2,69,211 per kg for silver. These movements indicate that domestic bullion continues to closely track international trends, with pricing impacted by the combination of crude oil volatility, currency strength, and geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

Historical Volatility Highlights March Trends

Gold prices have demonstrated significant swings during March. After surging to a peak of ₹1,67,915 per 10 grams on 2 March, gold has corrected approximately 4%, showing the ongoing tug-of-war between safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical risk and headwinds from a stronger US dollar and elevated crude oil prices. Silver mirrored this trend, with prices retreating from multi-week highs while maintaining support due to persistent international uncertainty.

City-Wise Gold Rates Maintain Elevated Levels

Across key Indian cities, 24-carat gold traded near ₹1,63,310, with minor variations in metros and tier-two cities. 22-carat gold hovered around ₹1,49,700 per 10 grams, while 18-carat and 14-carat jewellery were priced at ₹12,196 per gram and ₹9,486 per gram respectively. Analysts noted that domestic pricing remained influenced by dealer mark-ups, transportation costs, and regional demand patterns, while safe haven demand due to international uncertainty continued to provide support.

Gold and silver prices remain influenced by a combination of geopolitical tensions, rising Brent crude, and a firm US dollar. Domestic bullion pricing follows international trends closely, while city-level variations and moderate jewellery demand shape local rates. Investors and market participants should note that these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors continue to create a cautiously fluctuating environment for precious metals.