Sensex, Nifty Set for Positive Opening on July 18 Amid Global Tailwinds; Key Technical Levels in Focus

Mumbai, July 18, 2025: Indian equities are poised for a positive open today, buoyed by strong global sentiment and encouraging US economic data. This follows a subdued close on 17 July, which saw both benchmark indices lose ground ahead of the weekly expiry.

Previous Close Snapshot (July 17, 2025)

Market Cues: Global Sentiment Lifts Mood

A significant rally on Wall Street, fuelled by stronger-than-expected US retail sales figures and a decline in weekly jobless claims, propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs. US retail sales in June rose 0.6% after two consecutive months of declines, beating economists’ forecasts. This rebound, alongside initial jobless claims falling by 7,000 to 221,000 for the week ended 12 July (the lowest since mid-April), suggests a resilient US economy, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to delay interest rate cuts. This positive momentum has carried over into Asian markets, indicating a firm start for Indian equities on 18 July.

Institutional Activity

• FPIs: Net sellers worth ₹3,694 crore
• DIIs: Net buyers worth ₹2,820 crore

This institutional activity indicates that domestic institutions are actively stepping in to absorb foreign selling, which is crucial for supporting key market levels and preventing sharper declines.

Technical Picture: Rangebound, Awaiting Breakout

• Nifty 50
  • Support: The psychological level of 25,000 remains a critical support.
  • Resistance: Immediate resistance is seen at 25,350.
  • Moving Averages: The index is currently trading below both its 10-day and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are near 25,250, suggesting a bearish short-term trend.
  • RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at a neutral 50, indicating a lack of strong directional momentum.
  • Put-Call Ratio (PCR): The PCR has slipped from 0.80 to 0.69, suggesting an increase in bearish sentiment as more put options are being bought compared to call options.
• Sensex
  • Support: Key support for the Sensex is at 56,600.
  • Resistance: Resistance is identified at 57,350.

Market experts suggest that until the indices decisively break out of these consolidation zones, significant directional moves are likely to remain limited. The ongoing earnings season, particularly reports from major banking players, could provide the necessary catalyst for a sustained directional move.

Volatility Watch

• India VIX: The India VIX, often referred to as the ‘fear gauge’ of the Indian market, stands at 11.24. It remained virtually unchanged from its previous close and continues to stay below the critical 13 level. This indicates that while there’s consolidation, there’s no immediate panic in the market. A low VIX typically implies stable market conditions and reduced expected volatility.

Banking Sector Earnings in Focus

As the Q1 FY26 earnings season progresses, results from banking majors will be closely watched. Recent reports from IIFL Capital suggest a muted outlook for banks’ Q1 FY26 earnings, with an estimated decline in Profit After Tax (PAT) by 2% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter. This is primarily attributed to weak loan growth, Net Interest Margin (NIM) contraction, seasonally soft fee income, and potentially higher slippages. Despite these expectations, the outperformance of banking and financial stocks in a generally weak market has been noted, with dips potentially presenting buying opportunities. Jio Financial Services, for instance, reported a 3.8% YoY growth in Q1 FY26 consolidated net profit to ₹325 crore.

What’s Ahead for Today?

Markets are likely to open on a positive note, tracking strong global cues and a rebound in U.S. retail data. However, with Nifty still below key moving averages and PCR signalling cautious sentiment, gains may be limited unless fresh triggers emerge. Focus will be on Q1 earnings from banking majors, which could influence index direction. The Nifty needs to reclaim 25,250–25,350 for bullish momentum to resume, while 25,000 remains crucial support. Stable VIX suggests low volatility, but institutional flows and earnings will dictate intraday moves.

About the Indices

• Sensex: The Sensex is a benchmark index comprising 30 well-established, financially sound companies listed on the BSE (formerly Bombay Stock Exchange). It represents the broader market sentiment and economic health of India.
• Nifty 50: The Nifty 50 is a benchmark Indian stock market index that represents the weighted average of 50 of the largest Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). It is widely used to gauge the performance of the Indian equity market.

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