Bharat Barometer Nov'25: GST Contracts YoY, CPI Edges Up; Exports Rebound as Domestic Demand Remains Supportive

India’s economy in November 2025 reflected a mixed but stabilising macro picture. While GST collections declined YoY and manufacturing momentum softened, easing inflation, improving labour market conditions, and a rebound in exports supported overall activity. Domestic demand stayed resilient, aided by steady credit growth, strong rural indicators, and improving capital market participation.

Macroeconomic Indicators (Score: 2/5)

• GST Collection: GST collections contracted by 4% YoY in November 2025, indicating moderation in formal economic activity.
• CPI & WPI: CPI inflation edged up to 0.7% from 0.3% in October, while WPI remained flat at 0%, staying near deflationary territory.
• Unemployment: Urban unemployment declined to 6.98%, while rural unemployment improved to 6.21%, reflecting easing labour market stress.
• PMI Trends: Manufacturing PMI declined to 56.6, Services PMI improved to 59.8, and Composite PMI moderated to 59.7, remaining in expansion.

External Sector Trends (Score: 3/5)

• Trade Performance: Goods exports rebounded strongly at 19% YoY, while services exports grew 12%. Goods imports declined by 2%, easing trade pressures.
• Capital Flows: Net FII flows remained marginally negative at USD -425 million, reflecting persistent global risk aversion. Net FDI data remains awaited.

Central Government Finances (Score: 2/5)

• Direct Taxes: Cumulative gross direct tax collections growth stayed in mid-single digits, indicating gradual improvement.
• Expenditure Trends: Revenue expenditure decline softened further, while capital expenditure degrew in October but achieved 54.4% of FY26BE on an FYTD basis.
• Subsidies: Subsidy payout growth moderated sequentially but remained elevated.

Industrial Activity (Score: 3/5)

• E-Way Bills: Growth surged to 28% YoY in November, signalling a rebound in goods movement.
• Energy & Core Sectors: Power generation decline eased to -5%, while coal offtake contracted by -9%.
• Steel Consumption: Finished steel consumption growth improved to 6%, indicating steady construction demand.

Demand & Consumption (Score: 4/5)

• Automobiles: Overall vehicle registrations slowed to 3% YoY, while passenger vehicle sales rose sharply by 22%.
• Insurance: Life insurance first-year premium growth accelerated to 23%, and non-life premium growth rebounded to 24%.
• Consumer Sentiment: Rural sentiment remained stable at 117.9, while urban sentiment improved sharply to 113.3.
• Travel: Airport passenger traffic data for November remains awaited.

Banking & Money Flow (Score: 4/5)

• Liquidity: M3 money supply growth remained stable at 10%.
• Credit & Deposits: Credit growth strengthened to 12%, while deposit growth improved to 11%.
• Digital Payments: UPI transaction growth rose to 32%, while IMPS transaction decline moderated to -10%.
• Fastag: Value growth recovered to 16%, though volume growth remained muted at 3%.

Rural Indicators (Score: 4/5)

• Reservoir Levels: Reservoir storage rose 8% YoY, supporting rabi crop prospects.
• Employment: Rural employment growth held steady at 4%.
• Farm & Mobility: Tractor sales surged 30%, while two-wheeler sales rose 23%, indicating healthy rural cash flows.

Capital Markets (Score: 4/5)

• Mutual Funds: Equity mutual fund net inflows remained negative but improved to -17% YoY.
• Market Activity: NSE trading volumes surged 32% YoY, extending the recovery trend.
• Retail Participation: SIP contribution growth stayed stable at 16%, while net new SIP registrations remained positive at 1.40 million.
• Volatility: India VIX eased to 11.6, indicating a calmer market environment.