Bharat Barometer Sep'25: D͏omes͏͏t͏i͏c ͏͏St͏r͏eng͏th͏͏͏͏ ͏͏͏Bal͏a͏nc͏͏e͏͏s ͏Ext͏͏͏ern͏͏a͏͏l͏ ͏͏W͏e͏a͏kn͏e͏ss͏͏; ͏PMI a͏t͏ ͏͏61͏͏͏, ͏͏Cre͏dit Gr͏͏͏͏͏͏͏o͏͏wt͏h ͏͏͏͏a͏t ͏10%,͏ Trac͏t͏͏or͏͏ S͏͏͏ale͏͏s͏ u͏p ͏͏43% Am͏id͏͏ Gl͏͏͏obal H͏ea͏d͏wi͏n͏͏d͏s͏

India’s economic landscape in September 2͏02͏5 continued͏ ͏ t͏o ͏reflect a mixed but resilient performance across key sectors. While e͏xt͏ernal tra͏de and capi͏tal market activities c͏on͏tinue to face pr͏essures, domestic demand indica͏tor͏s including vehicle reg͏i͏stra͏t͏ions, life insurance premiums, and rural tracto͏r sales remained robust. The Bharat Barometer’s latest edition offers a thorough analysis of sector-specific and macroeco͏nomic trends influencing India’s financial perspe͏ctive.

Ma͏croeconomic Indicators (Score: 3/͏5)

• GST Collection: Growth improved to 9% in September 2025, marking a high single-digit recovery from the previous month’s subdued performance.

• CPI & WPI: Consumer inflation (CPI) eased further to 1.5%, maintaining a low-price environment. Wholesale inflation (WPI) softened to 0%, indicating continued deflationary pressure at the wholesale level.

• Unemployment: Rural unemployment fell to 5.22%, its lowest level in several months, while urban unemployment rose slightly to 8.55%, pointing to a diverging employment trend.

• PMI Trends: Both manufacturing (57.7) and services (60.9) PMIs moderated sequentially but stayed comfortably in the expansion zone. The composite PMI fell marginally to 61.0, still signalling solid overall activity.

External Sector Trends (Score: 1/5)

• Exports & Imports: Growth in goods exports and imports contracted by 1–2% YoY, reflecting softening global demand.

• Services Trade: Services exports slowed sharply to 3%, while services imports declined by 5%.

• FDI & FII Flows: Net FDI inflows remained strong at USD 5,046 million, while FII outflows persisted for the third consecutive month, totalling USD -2,702 million.
  Overall, India’s external sector remained under pressure due to global trade weakness and risk-off investor sentiment.

Government Finances (Score: 2/5)

• Direct Tax Collection: Cumulative gross direct tax collection stayed in the degrowth zone for the third straight month, at -1% YoY.

• Revenue & Capital Spending: Revenue expenditure contracted by 26%, whereas capital expenditure surged sharply by 113%, indicating a renewed focus on public investment.

• Subsidy Payments: Declined further by -31%, continuing the trend of fiscal consolidation.
  Overall, fiscal dynamics reflected stronger capital allocation amid tight expenditure management.

Industrial Activity (Score: 2/5)

• E-Way Bills: Growth remained strong at 21%, though marginally lower than August.

• Energy & Manufacturing: Petroleum products consumption rose to 7%, while steel consumption stayed stable at 9–10% growth.

• Power & Coal: Power generation growth was flat at 1%, whereas coal offtake contracted -2% YoY, highlighting mixed industrial momentum.
  India’s industrial performance remained steady but lacked strong growth impulses.

Demand & Consumption (Score: 4/5)

• Vehicle Sales: Overall vehicle registrations rose 6%, reflecting a pick-up in consumer mobility demand, even as passenger vehicle sales showed mild contraction.

• Insurance Premiums: Life insurance premium growth slowed to 15%, but non-life premiums strengthened to 13%, indicating broad-based demand revival.

• Consumer Sentiment: Rural sentiment eased to 110.8, while urban sentiment improved to 111.0, sustaining high confidence levels across segments.

• Travel & Leisure: Air passenger traffic increased after four months of decline, signalling a gradual recovery in the services economy.

Banking & Money Flow (Score: 4/5)

• Money Supply (M3): Growth stayed steady at 10%, indicating stable liquidity in the financial system.

• Credit & Deposits: Scheduled commercial banks reported 10% credit growth, marginally ahead of deposit growth at 9%.

• Retail Payments: UPI transactions grew 31%, slightly softer than the previous month, while IMPS transaction growth turned positive.

• Fastag Collections: Value and volume growth eased but remained healthy in the low-teen range, indicating stable transport activity.

Rural Indicators (Score: 3/5)

• Reservoir Storage: Year-on-year reservoir storage growth remained steady at 4%, maintaining adequate water levels post-monsoon.

• Rural Employment: Growth softened slightly to 4%, after the mid-single-digit rise seen in August.

• Agricultural Machinery: Tractor sales accelerated strongly to 43%, highlighting strong rural demand and farm activity.

• Two-Wheeler Sales & Fertilisers: Two-wheeler sales remained robust at 11%, while fertiliser demand continued to stabilise after months of volatility.

Capital Markets (Score: 2/5)

• Mutual Funds: Equity mutual fund net inflows declined slightly month-on-month by -12%, but overall inflows stayed positive.

• Trading Volume: NSE trading volumes continued to decline year-on-year, though the rate of degrowth eased to -2%.

• SIP Contributions: Growth in SIP inflows remained stable at 20%, with 1.37 million new SIPs registered in September—marking the fifth consecutive month of positive additions.

• Market Sentiment: Despite subdued trading activity, investor participation through systematic investment routes continued to show resilience.