Brent Heads for 20% Monthly Gain; MCX Crude Ends at ₹7,811 

Mumbai, August 1: The global oil markets experienced one of their most volatile weeks in recent memory during the period ended 31 July 2026, as the escalating US-Iran conflict and disruptions to key shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz kept traders on edge. Despite a sharp pullback at the start of the week following a temporary pause in hostilities, oil prices rebounded aggressively by mid-week as the conflict expanded beyond the Gulf, threatening other critical maritime chokepoints.  

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was on track for a monthly jump of about 20% , while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were set for a similar monthly gain. In the domestic market, MCX crude futures for August delivery ended the week at ₹7,811 per barrel , depreciating ₹226, or 2.81% , on Friday alone amid signs of improving tanker movements through West Asian shipping routes.  

Retail petrol and diesel prices across India, however, remained largely unchanged throughout the week, with the last major revision having taken place on 25 May. 

Oil Plunges 8.7% to $88.36 as US Suspends Bombing Campaign, Raising Hopes of De-escalation 

The trading week began with a dramatic plunge in crude prices as Washington abruptly suspended its bombing campaign against Iranian targets over the weekend, raising hopes of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict.  

Brent crude settled 8.7% lower at $88.36 a barrel on Monday , its weakest level since 17 July, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 7.5% to close at $82.61. During the session, Brent dropped to a low of $87.60 per barrel — a 9% decline from the previous day — before levelling out around $90.80 per barrel. 

The sharp sell-off was driven by easing geopolitical tensions following the pause in US-Iran hostilities, which alleviated immediate concerns over supply disruptions from the Gulf region. “Brent crude had topped $100 a barrel the previous week as the conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and spilled into the Red Sea,” analysts noted. The temporary ceasefire also weighed on oil prices as traders priced in a lower geopolitical risk premium. 

Oil Extends Losses to Two-Week Low as Cautious Optimism Builds Over US-Iran Talks 

The bearish sentiment continued into Tuesday as oil prices fell to a two-week low on cautious hopes for a resolution to the Iran war. Brent futures fell $4.27, or 4.8%, to settle at $84.09 a barrel , while WTI crude dropped $3.35, or 4.1%, to close at $79.26. During intraday trading, Brent briefly slipped below $83 per barrel for the first time since 17 July. 

The decline was attributed to continued optimism over US-Iran negotiations and the absence of fresh military strikes for several days. However, the geopolitical risk premium remained elevated as the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints — continued to see sharply reduced oil flows. According to Kpler shipping data, average weekly crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 2.57 million barrels a day in the week beginning 20 July, about 61% below the 6.60 million barrels a day recorded two weeks earlier.  

The disruption to crude flows was increasingly spilling over into refined fuel markets, with Russia extending a temporary ban on diesel exports by one month until 1 September. At the same time, US crude inventories dropped by 7.2 million barrels in the latest week to their lowest level in nearly eight years , adding to concerns over tightening supply. 

Oil Rebounds 7.9% as Iran Fires Missiles at US Base; Brent Surges to $90.74 

The brief calm ended on Wednesday as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard launched ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan, prompting the United States to resume strikes on Iran-backed groups in Iraq alongside Saudi Arabia. The escalation sent Brent crude up 7.9% to settle at $90.74 a barrel, while WTI gained 6.6% to $84.46. The renewed conflict sharply increased geopolitical risk, with markets pricing in concerns over potential supply disruptions.  

The conflict also expanded beyond the Gulf, as some vessels avoided the Red Sea’s Bab al-Mandeb Strait and diverted via Egypt’s Mediterranean ports and the Suez Canal. A drone attack on Egypt’s Damietta port further heightened concerns over the security of regional energy infrastructure. 

Oil Steadies Near $90 as Tanker Traffic Improves; Qatar Sends First LNG Shipment Through Hormuz 

Thursday saw oil prices stabilise as traders assessed the evolving geopolitical situation and improving energy shipments. Brent crude initially fell 0.9% to $87.30 a barrel before recovering to trade around $91, while WTI also pared early losses. Improved tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, including Qatar’s first LNG shipment via Hormuz and the resumption of Saudi tanker traffic, helped ease immediate supply concerns.  

However, geopolitical risks remained elevated after fresh strikes disrupted crude loadings at Kazakhstan’s Black Sea export terminal. Saudi Arabia also proposed an international maritime coalition involving 43 countries to enhance security in the Red Sea following recent Houthi threats to commercial shipping. 

Also Read: How To Invest In Crude Oil

Oil Falls Over 1% to $88 as More Supplies Flow Through Hormuz; Monthly Gain Remains at 20% 

Oil prices fell on Friday but remained on track for a monthly rise of about a fifth, as more supplies flowed through crucial maritime chokepoints despite a lack of major breakthroughs in US-Iran talks. Brent futures fell $1.03, or 1.2%, to $88 a barrel by 0215 GMT, while WTI crude slipped $1.50, or 1.8%, to $82.09 a barrel. In the international markets, Brent oil futures for September delivery declined $1.81, or 2.03%, to $87.22 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange, while WTI for the September contract slipped $1.80, or 2.15%, to $81.79 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. 

Crude oil prices edged lower as improving tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz offset concerns over escalating Middle East tensions. However, continued threats to Red Sea shipping by Iran-backed Houthi militants and higher freight and insurance costs kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. Despite the recent pullback, crude prices remained supported by persistent supply disruption concerns. 

Domestic Market: MCX Crude Futures Fall 2.81% to ₹7,811 as Shipping Activity Improves 

In the domestic market, crude oil futures mirrored the weakness in global benchmarks. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), crude futures for August delivery depreciated ₹226, or 2.81%, to ₹7,811 per barrel on Friday. Similarly, the September contract dipped by ₹190, or 2.43%, to ₹7,616 per barrel on the commodities bourse. 

Traders attributed the decline to signs of improving oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which reduced the geopolitical risk premium in crude and prompted selling in domestic futures. “MCX Crude oil prices declined on Friday, tracking weakness in the energy market as crude shipments through key West Asia maritime routes improved despite limited progress in US-Iran negotiations,” said Pinky Yadav, Commodity Fundamental Analyst at Choice Broking. 

Retail Fuel Prices: Petrol and Diesel Remain Unchanged Across Major Cities Despite Crude Volatility 

Despite the sharp volatility in global crude prices, retail petrol and diesel prices across India remained largely unchanged throughout the week. State-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) left retail rates unchanged, with the last major nationwide revision having taken place on 25 May. The current prices continue to reflect the revision announced on 25 May, even as the global crude price moved higher amid uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. 

On Friday, 31 July, petrol and diesel prices remained steady across major Indian cities. In New Delhi, petrol was priced at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20 per litre. Mumbai recorded the highest petrol price among major metros at ₹111.21 per litre, while diesel was at ₹97.83 per litre. In Kolkata, petrol was at ₹113.51 per litre and diesel at ₹99.82 per litre. Chennai had petrol at ₹107.78 per litre and diesel at ₹99.56 per litre.  

Bengaluru recorded petrol at ₹110.93 per litre and diesel at ₹98.80 per litre. Hyderabad continued to report the highest petrol price among major cities at ₹115.73 per litre, with diesel at ₹103.82 per litre. Other cities including Gurugram (₹102.75 petrol, ₹95.42 diesel), Noida (₹101.96 petrol, ₹95.44 diesel), Jaipur (₹113.97 petrol, ₹98.96 diesel), Lucknow (₹102.68 petrol, ₹96.10 diesel), Patna (₹113.37 petrol, ₹99.36 diesel), and Thiruvananthapuram (₹115.26 petrol, ₹104.02 diesel) also saw no change in retail fuel prices. 

Fuel prices continued to vary across states because of local taxes, freight charges and dealer commissions. On a monthly basis, petrol and diesel prices had become more expensive by about ₹7.50 to ₹8 per litre due to the impact of the Iran war and rising crude prices. 

OPEC+ to Meet Sunday; Expected to Approve Another 188,000 bpd Output Hike 

Looking ahead, key members of the OPEC+ group are set to meet virtually on Sunday to discuss production quotas. According to most market watchers, producers will likely agree to another output hike of 188,000 barrels a day. However, analysts noted that “the group’s decisions on oil production remain moot at present given that the conflict in the Middle East is disrupting actual supply far more than any quota adjustment can offset”. The group had previously agreed to increase production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, following similar increases in June and July. The voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million bpd were first announced in April 2023 and were later extended through the end of 2026. 

The oil market witnessed sharp volatility during the week as escalating Middle East tensions and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude towards a 20% monthly gain. Despite fluctuating global prices, Indian retail fuel rates remained unchanged. Going forward, investors will closely monitor the OPEC+ meeting, developments in the US-Iran conflict, shipping activity through key oil transit routes, and US crude inventory data, all of which are expected to influence the near-term direction of oil prices.  

Source 

• https://ppac.gov.in/prices/international-prices-of-crude-oil 
• https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm