Brent Tops $105 on Hormuz Attacks, Then Retreats to $102.93 as Trump Rules Out Iran Strike

Mumbai, Oct 10: Global crude oil prices swung violently through the week of 5–9 October 2026, with Brent crude surging above $105 per barrel on Thursday, 8 October, before retreating to $102.93 by Friday morning after US President Donald Trump said the United States would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections.

The Indian Crude Basket, the landed cost of crude for Indian refiners, climbed to $121.1–$122.0 per barrel during the week, significantly above international benchmarks. Despite the volatility in global markets, retail petrol and diesel prices in India remained frozen at their June levels across all major cities, as state-owned oil marketing companies absorbed the impact of higher crude costs and a weaker rupee.

Brent Surges 4% on Thursday to $104.28, Weekly Gain of 1% Despite Friday Pullback

Brent crude futures for December delivery opened the week at approximately $101.56 per barrel on Monday, 5 October, after the previous week’s close of $102.25 per barrel on Friday, 2 October. The contract swung between an intraday high above $103 and a low near $97 during Monday’s session as traders weighed a stalled West Asia war against fresh fighting in Yemen. By Wednesday, Brent had recovered above $101 per barrel as attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf intensified.

The week’s sharpest move came on Thursday, 8 October, when Brent futures surged $4.08, or 4.07%, to settle at $104.28 per barrel — the highest level since mid-September — after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered supply-disruption fears. Confirmed total oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply to 2.72 million barrels per day on 7 October from 12.26 million barrels per day on 4 October, according to Kpler data.

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Friday brought a dramatic reversal. Brent crude fell 1.29% to $102.93 by 9:29 AM IST on 9 October after Trump’s Truth Social post stating: “We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.” For the full week, Brent recorded a gain of approximately 1% from the previous Friday’s close.

WTI Retreats to $90.43 as Trump Signals Talks; Weekly High of $91.49 on Thursday

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for November delivery opened the week at approximately $91.07 per barrel on Monday, down 21 cents from the previous settlement of $91.26, and fell to a weekly low of $87.97 during intraday trading. The contract touched a weekly high of $91.49 on Thursday, closing up $3.21 or 3.6% for the session, before declining 1.16% to $90.43 by Friday morning.

The divergence between Brent and WTI during the week reflected the specific supply risks in the Middle East and the Gulf of Mexico. While Brent was buoyed by Strait of Hormuz disruptions, WTI faced additional pressure from Hurricane Isaias, which forced oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico to shut in approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, or 62.9% of current oil production.

OPEC+ Holds November Quotas at 31.01 Million bpd; Saudi Arabia at 10.478 Million bpd

The OPEC+ alliance’s seven key producers — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — held an online meeting on Sunday, 4 October 2026, and decided to maintain November production quotas at the September levels. Saudi Arabia’s quota was held at 10.478 million barrels per day, Russia’s at 9.949 million, Iraq’s at 4.431 million, Kuwait’s at 2.676 million, Kazakhstan’s at 1.628 million, Algeria’s at 1.007 million, and Oman’s at 841,000.

The combined quota of 31.01 million barrels per day represented the second consecutive month of frozen production targets, as the alliance weighed supply disruptions against the need to support prices. OPEC also lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, its fifth consecutive downward revision.

MCX Crude Tumbles to ₹8,669 on Monday, Then Surges to ₹8,876 on Thursday; Ends at ₹8,771

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, the October crude oil futures contract opened the week at approximately ₹8,916 per barrel on Monday, then fell sharply by 2.77% to settle at ₹8,669 as signs of increasing global supply outweighed Middle East risk fears. The contract declined further to ₹8,444 by Tuesday’s close, registering a drop of ₹225 or 2.60%. By Wednesday, prices had stabilised near ₹8,552 as traders positioned ahead of Thursday’s anticipated supply-disruption news.

Thursday brought a sharp rebound. MCX crude oil futures for October delivery rose ₹324, or 3.79%, to ₹8,876 per barrel in a business turnover of 11,803 lots, tracking positive global trends. The November contract traded at ₹8,657 against the previous close of ₹8,506, up 1.78%. On Friday, the October contract opened lower at ₹8,755 against the previous close of ₹8,864, down 1.23%, and settled at ₹8,771, declining 1.05% for the session. The weekly range on MCX spanned from a low of ₹8,444 on Tuesday to a high of ₹8,876 on Thursday.

Indian Crude Basket Climbs to $121.1–$122.0, a 6-Year Discount to Brent

The Indian Crude Basket, published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, rose to $122.0 per barrel on 7 October 2026, up 1.01% from the previous assessment, and climbed further to $121.1 by 9 October, advancing 2.95%.

The ICB represents the weighted average of Oman and Dubai sour crude and Dated Brent sweet crude, reflecting the actual landed cost for Indian refiners. The basket has averaged approximately $120 per barrel in October 2026, significantly above the $82 average in July and $90 in August. Despite trading at a six-year discount to Brent, the ICB remains above international futures due to India’s specific import configurations, freight costs, and insurance premiums.

Petrol, Diesel Prices Frozen for 18th Straight Week; Nayara Energy Raises Rates by ₹5

Retail petrol and diesel prices in India remained unchanged across all major cities on 9 October 2026, continuing a freeze that has held since June. Petrol in Delhi was priced at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20, while Mumbai recorded ₹111.21 for petrol and ₹97.83 for diesel. Kolkata had petrol at ₹113.51 and diesel at ₹99.82, while Chennai recorded ₹107.77 and ₹99.55 respectively. Hyderabad had the highest petrol price at ₹116.15 per litre, while Thiruvananthapuram had the highest diesel price at ₹104.40 per litre.

The freeze persisted despite Nayara Energy, India’s largest private fuel retailer, raising petrol prices by ₹5 per litre and diesel by ₹3 per litre on Saturday, 3 October. State-owned oil marketing companies — Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum — have kept rates steady since June, absorbing the impact of higher international crude prices and a weaker rupee in their marketing margins. The pump prices include central excise duty, state VAT, dealer commissions, and freight charges, which collectively constitute approximately 50–55% of the retail price.

Petrol at ₹111.21 in Mumbai, ₹102.12 in Delhi; Diesel at ₹97.83 and ₹95.20

Beginning-of-week prices on Monday, 5 October, were identical to end-of-week levels, with no city recording a revision during the week. Petrol in Mumbai stood at ₹111.21 per litre on both Monday and Friday, while diesel held at ₹97.83. In Delhi, petrol was ₹102.12 and diesel ₹95.20 throughout the week. Bengaluru recorded petrol at ₹111.68 and diesel at ₹99.56, while Hyderabad had petrol at ₹116.15 and diesel at ₹104.23. Jaipur recorded petrol at ₹112.66 and diesel at ₹98.25, while Lucknow had petrol at ₹101.86 and diesel at ₹95.36.

Crude-to-Pump Transmission: Why ₹100 Brent Does Not Raise Petrol Prices Immediately

The transmission mechanism from global crude to Indian pump prices operates through multiple stages, each absorbing or amplifying price movements. Global crude prices first influence the Indian Crude Basket, which reflects India’s actual import mix and landed costs. The ICB averaged $120 per barrel during the week, significantly above Brent’s $102.93, due to freight, insurance, and the specific sour crude composition that Indian refiners prefer.

The rupee-dollar exchange rate is the next critical link. A weaker rupee — which fell to 96.78 during the week — makes dollar-denominated crude imports more expensive in local currency terms. With the rupee depreciating approximately 0.5% during the week, the landed cost of crude in rupee terms rose even when dollar prices fell.

Refining costs, including crude processing, transportation to depots, and marketing expenses, are added to the landed crude cost. Taxes then constitute the largest single component of retail prices: central excise duty of ₹19.90 per litre on petrol and ₹15.80 per litre on diesel, plus state VAT ranging from ₹15 to ₹25 per litre depending on the state. Dealer commissions, typically ₹3.50–₹4.00 per litre, are added at the final stage.

The key reason pump prices have remained frozen despite crude volatility is the pricing discretion exercised by state-owned OMCs. While private retailers like Nayara Energy adjust prices to reflect input costs, state-owned companies have kept rates steady to shield consumers from geopolitical shocks. This has compressed their marketing margins, but with refining margins remaining healthy, the OMCs have been able to absorb the impact without altering retail prices.

The week’s crude oil market was defined by the tug-of-war between Middle East supply disruptions and diplomatic signals from Washington. Brent’s surge above $105 on Thursday, 8 October, followed by Friday’s retreat to $102.93, reflected the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments. The Indian Crude Basket’s rise to $121.1–$122.0 and the rupee’s depreciation to 96.78 have increased the landed cost for Indian refiners, yet retail petrol and diesel prices remained frozen at June levels.

The divergence between international crude movements and domestic pump prices reflects the pricing discretion of state-owned OMCs and the tax-heavy structure of retail fuel pricing. Key variables to monitor include Strait of Hormuz shipping flows, Hurricane Isaias impact on Gulf of Mexico production, and the rupee’s trajectory against the dollar.