Brent Rises 1.4% to $105.40 while WTI Drops 3.3% to $92.90 on Houthi Attacks and the US-Iran Talks

Mumbai, Sept 26: Crude oil markets experienced a week of intense volatility between 21 and 25 September 2026, due to the Houthi attacks on facilities of Saudi Aramco and the reports that the United States and Iran were negotiating in phases to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

The price of Brent crude for November delivery reached $105.40 per barrel at the end of the week, which was an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous week, and WTI for November settlement closed at $92.90 per barrel, representing a decrease of 3.3% over the same period. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the crude oil futures for October delivery ended at ₹8,934 per barrel, having fallen by 2.54% on Friday. 

Even though there was a sharp increase in the price of crude oil from abroad, the prices of petrol and diesel in the major Indian cities did not change during the week, with petrol in Delhi staying at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20 per litre; the state-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) took on the effect. 

Brent Rises 1.4% to $105.40 on Houthi Strikes as WTI Falls 3.3% 

Brent crude opened the week near $104 per barrel on 21 September and traded in a wide range of $98.16 to $105.85 before settling at $105.40 per barrel on Friday, up 1.4% from the previous week’s close. The contract surged 3.86% on Thursday, 24 September, to $103.08 per barrel after Houthi rebels claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco’s facilities in Yanbu and a sensitive target in Riyadh. 

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WTI crude moved in the opposite direction, falling from a weekly open of approximately $96 per barrel to close at $92.90 per barrel, a decline of 3.3%. The divergence reflected the different sensitivities of the two benchmarks to Middle Eastern supply disruptions, with Brent more directly exposed to geopolitical risk premiums in the North Sea and Asian markets. 

Houthi Attacks on Aramco Facilities Lift Brent 3.86% on 24 September 

Yemen’s Houthi group announced on 19 September that it had launched large-scale missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh and Aramco facilities in the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea. The attacks, which Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said targeted a “sensitive target” in Riyadh and Aramco’s fuel tanks in Yanbu, revived supply-disruption fears that had been receding in prior sessions. 

Brent crude surged 3.86% on 24 September in response, with WTI rising 1.81% to $92.16 per barrel. The Houthis also declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb strait, raising concerns about oil tanker traffic through one of the world’s most critical chokepoints. 

US-Iran Phased Deal Reports Cap Gains as Hormuz Reopening Discussed 

Reports emerged during the week that US and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift an economic blockade on Tehran. The talks, which were being held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, raised expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough that could restore normal oil flows through the strategic waterway. 

Iran had indicated it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if the US reduced military pressure and lifted its blockade on Iranian ports, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters. US President Donald Trump said talks between Washington and Tehran were continuing and expressed optimism that a settlement could eventually be reached. However, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that it was up to the United States to decide when the war would end, underscoring the fragile nature of the negotiations. 

OPEC+ Keeps October Output Unchanged at September Levels 

The OPEC+ alliance, comprising Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, decided at its 6 September meeting to maintain September production levels for October. Under the October schedule, Saudi Arabia’s required production remained at 10,478 thousand barrels per day (kbd), while Russia’s stood at 9,949 kbd. Iraq was allocated 4,431 kbd, Kuwait 2,676 kbd, Kazakhstan 1,628 kbd, Algeria 1,007 kbd and Oman 805 kbd. 

The decision to pause output increases marked the first time since April 2026 that the group chose not to raise production, reaffirming its commitment to supporting global market stability. The next policy review was scheduled for 4 October 2026. The production freeze provided a floor under crude prices during the week, as markets had anticipated potential supply increases that did not materialise. 

US Crude Inventories Rise by 3 Million Barrels to 426.4 Million 

Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on 23 September showed that US crude oil inventories rose by 3 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels in the week ended 18 September, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 641,000-barrel draw. The American Petroleum Institute (API) had earlier estimated a build of 1.786 million barrels for the same period. 

Gasoline and distillate inventories declined by approximately 2.2 million barrels each during the week, reflecting continued strong refining demand. Crude inventories were at a surplus of 11.60 million barrels (2.8%) to last year and a surplus of 7.90 million barrels (1.9%) to the five-year average. The unexpected build in crude stocks provided a bearish counterweight to the geopolitical risk premium that had driven prices higher earlier in the week. 

MCX Crude Oil October Settles at ₹8,934 Down 2.54% on Friday 

On the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude oil futures for October delivery opened the week at approximately ₹9,098 per barrel on 21 September, against the previous close of ₹9,152. The contract declined through the week, touching an intraday low near ₹8,858 on Friday before settling at ₹8,934 per barrel, down ₹233 or 2.54% on the day. MCX Crude Oil had staged a recovery from recent lows earlier in the week, trading above both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, with immediate resistance placed at ₹9,076 and major support at ₹8,478. 

Indian Crude Basket Surges to $123.67 as September Average Hits $115.48 

India’s crude oil basket, which reflects the average price of crude grades imported by Indian refiners, surged to $123.67 per barrel on 24 September, according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data. The basket averaged $115.48 per barrel for September so far, up 28% from the August average of $90.19 per barrel. The Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran warned that India’s imported crude basket had risen nearly 30% in September from August, with prices reaching $115.27 per barrel on 22 September. 

The sharp rise in the Indian crude basket was driven by the combined impact of elevated Brent prices, strong Dubai crude premiums, and the depreciation of the Indian rupee, which traded within a range of 95.57–95.97 against the US dollar during the week. 

Petrol at ₹102.12 and Diesel at ₹95.20 in Delhi Remain Unchanged 

Petrol and diesel prices across major Indian cities remained unchanged throughout the week despite the sharp volatility in international crude markets. In Delhi, petrol continued to cost ₹102.12 per litre while diesel was priced at ₹95.20 per litre. In Mumbai, petrol remained at ₹111.21 per litre and diesel at ₹97.83 per litre. Kolkata quoted petrol at ₹113.51 and diesel at ₹99.82, while Chennai recorded ₹107.77 for petrol and ₹99.55 for diesel. 

State-run oil marketing companies maintained retail rates following their daily 6 am revision, absorbing the impact of higher crude prices. The OMCs were estimated to be losing approximately ₹530 crore per day amid the crude surge, with negative marketing margins of around ₹5 per litre on petrol and ₹23 per litre on diesel as crude moved above $100 per barrel, according to ICRA. 

City-Wise Petrol and Diesel Prices Remain Stable from 21 to 25 September 

Petrol and diesel prices across major Indian cities showed no change from the beginning of the week on 21 September to the end of the week on 25 September. Delhi recorded petrol at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20 per litre, while Mumbai quoted ₹111.21 and ₹97.83 respectively. Kolkata maintained petrol at ₹113.51 and diesel at ₹99.82, and Chennai recorded ₹107.77 for petrol and ₹99.55 for diesel. 

Other cities including Bengaluru at ₹111.68 for petrol and ₹99.56 for diesel, Hyderabad at ₹116.15 and ₹104.23, Gurgaon at ₹102.97 and ₹95.64, Noida at ₹101.96 and ₹95.44, and Jaipur at ₹112.66 and ₹98.25 also recorded no change during the week. The stability in retail prices reflected the government’s decision to not pass on the sharp increase in international crude prices to consumers ahead of the festive season. 

Rupee Holds at 95.80 Against Dollar Limiting Import Cost Pass-Through 

The Indian rupee traded within a narrow range of 95.57 to 95.97 against the US dollar during the week, ending largely flat at 95.80. The currency’s stability provided limited cushion to domestic fuel prices, as the rupee’s depreciation against the dollar in prior weeks had already increased the landed cost of crude imports. A weaker rupee makes dollar-denominated crude more expensive for Indian refiners, amplifying the impact of rising international prices on the domestic crude basket. 

Government Rules Out Petrol and Diesel Price Hike Despite Crude Surge 

The government indicated during the week that there was no proposal yet to increase petrol and diesel prices despite the sharp rise in crude oil prices. Reports suggested that the government may support oil marketing companies if crude prices remain elevated, with the option of providing financial assistance to OMCs to prevent a pass-through to consumers.  

The decision to hold retail prices steady was aimed at shielding consumers from the inflationary impact of higher fuel costs ahead of the festive season, even as OMCs absorbed significant losses on their marketing margins. 

Crude-to-Pump Transmission Remains Blocked by Taxes and OMC Margins 

The transmission of international crude price movements to Indian pump prices remained effectively blocked during the week. India’s crude oil basket rose nearly 30% in September from August, yet retail petrol and diesel prices showed zero movement. The Indian crude basket averaged $115.48 per barrel in September, translating to a landed cost of approximately ₹97 per litre for crude alone after accounting for import duties, refining costs, and taxes.  

Central and state taxes account for approximately 50-55% of the retail price of petrol and 45-50% of diesel, creating a buffer that absorbs international price shocks. OMC marketing margins, which turned negative during the week at -₹5 per litre on petrol and -₹23 per litre on diesel, further absorbed the impact of rising crude costs. 

Brent closed at $105.40, up 1.4% weekly, while WTI fell 3.3% to $92.90. MCX crude October settled at ₹8,934, down 2.54% on Friday. India’s crude basket averaged $115.48 in September, up 28% from August. Petrol and diesel prices remained unchanged across major Indian cities, with Delhi petrol at ₹102.12 and diesel at ₹95.20. OMCs absorbed negative marketing margins of ₹5 per litre on petrol and ₹23 per litre on diesel. 

Source 

• https://ppac.gov.in/prices/international-prices-of-crude-oil 
• https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm