CII Projects FY26 GDP Growth at 6.4–6.7%, Cites Policy Support and Consumption

New Delhi, July 3 – The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) has predicted strong economic growth for the Indian economy for the current financial year. The newly appointed CII President, Rajiv Memani, has projected a growth range of 6.4-6.7% for the year. This is backed by a favourable monsoon and improved liquidity due to the RBI’s recent policy decisions and rate cut announcements.

In addition, strong domestic demand, healthy public expenditure, favourable demographic trends, and overall manageable downside risk also point towards robust economic growth in the current period.

RBI’s Policy Boosts Lending Capacity

Last month, the Reserve Bank of India announced a 100-basis-point cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), releasing ₹2.5 lakh crore into the banking system to encourage lending to productive sectors. Additionally, the benchmark interest rate was reduced by 50 basis points to 5.5%, making credit more accessible and affordable for businesses and consumers.

“These measures are expected to play a crucial role in fuelling growth,” Memani said, reinforcing CII’s GDP projection for FY26.

Risks Remain, But Domestic Strength Offers Cushion

While optimistic about the outlook, Memani cautioned that geopolitical uncertainties and external trade-related challenges could act as downside risks. However, he emphasised that many of these global headwinds have already been taken into account in forecasts.

“We expect [GDP growth] in a range of 6.4 to 6.7 percent,” Memani said. “From a CII standpoint, we believe the risks are balanced, with domestic demand providing a strong cushion against external shocks.”

CII’s economic outlook presentation reiterated that growth risks are evenly balanced, with domestic fundamentals remaining solid despite global volatility.

As India moves deeper into FY26, the combination of policy support, consumer confidence, and investment momentum is expected to keep the economy on a steady growth path, barring major global disruptions.

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