Gift Nifty Points to Green Open for Sensex, Nifty as Iran Sanctions Standoff Persists

Mumbai, Aug 25: Indian equity benchmarks are set for a muted-to-positive open on Tuesday, with Gift Nifty signalling a modest recovery attempt after Monday’s late reversal on Iran sanctions jitters. The setup comes even as the geopolitical overhang refuses to lift, with Washington warning countries against doing business with Iran even as it held off on imposing fresh penalties, and Tehran vowing retaliation in response. The mixed global cues, a firm Dow but a weaker Nasdaq overnight, suggest markets are still parsing whether the sanctions escalation changes the fundamental risk calculus around Gulf oil supply. For Indian investors, the key question remains whether this pattern of early strength fading into late selling, seen repeatedly through the past two sessions, breaks or repeats on Tuesday. 

Bessent’s decision to stop short of naming specific countries or a firm sanctions timeline has been read by some as buying time rather than de-escalating, since the Treasury did sanction 60 individuals, entities and vessels without touching Chinese financial institutions central to Iran’s oil trade. That calibrated approach, aggressive rhetoric paired with a deliberately incomplete rollout, has left markets without full clarity on the scale of disruption ahead, a dynamic that could keep volatility elevated through the week. 

Crude oil’s reaction has been telling: prices eased over 1 per cent on Monday as traders booked profits after last week’s rally, only to edge back higher again in early Tuesday trade. That choppiness underscores how closely oil, and by extension Indian equities, remains tethered to headline risk out of Washington and Tehran rather than to any resolved fundamental picture. 

Against this backdrop, a Gift Nifty print in the green offers only tentative comfort. With the Sensex and Nifty having now fallen around 1.3 per cent over the past two weeks, Tuesday’s session will likely test whether Monday’s IT and metals-led resilience can broaden out, or whether financials continue to bear the brunt of risk-off flows tied to the Iran standoff. 

Gift Nifty 

Gift Nifty futures for the September 29 series were trading at 24,232.00, up 8.50 points, or 0.04 per cent, as of 8:03 am IST on Tuesday. The mild uptick points to a cautiously positive start for Indian benchmarks, though the modest scale of the gain suggests investors remain watchful rather than convinced. 

Iran War Update 

The Iran conflict took another turn on Monday after the US unveiled expanded sanctions targeting Iran’s economic lifeline, while stopping short of the most punishing measures and declining to name the countries that could face secondary penalties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said nations continuing to trade with Iran risked being pushed out of the dollar-based financial system, framing the move as an “economic onslaught” rather than an immediate cutoff. Iran’s Economy Minister, Ali Madanizadeh, said the country was “fully prepared” for the sanctions and warned that Tehran’s defence was “no longer so defensive,” while a spokesperson for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed heavy blows to US interests if Iranian infrastructure came under threat. Neither side has launched major strikes in weeks, but with no diplomatic breakthrough in sight nearly six months into the conflict, the risk of renewed escalation remains firmly on markets’ radar. 

Asian Markets on Tuesday 

Asian markets were mixed on Tuesday morning, with Australia’s S&P ASX All Ordinaries up 0.46 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.11 per cent, while Vietnam’s HNX 30 also advanced. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.08 per cent and Indonesia’s JSX Composite fell 0.37 per cent, with Thailand’s SET Index the region’s weakest performer, down 0.79 per cent. Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa KLCI and Pakistan’s KSE 100 posted marginal declines, while Shanghai’s SE Composite was little changed. The mixed regional tone reflected lingering caution over the Iran sanctions rollout even as some markets found support from firmer US cues. 

Wall Street 

Wall Street ended mixed on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 140.15 points, or 0.26 per cent, to 53,417.16. The Nasdaq Composite fell 200.26 points, or 0.76 per cent, to 25,980.19, while the S&P 500 slipped 21.51 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 7,652.86, as investors weighed the Iran sanctions announcement against broader risk sentiment. 

Oil Prices 

Oil prices firmed in early Tuesday trade after easing more than 1 per cent on Monday, with WTI crude up 0.81 per cent at $85.70 a barrel and Brent crude gaining 0.62 per cent to $92.74 a barrel. The Opec basket rose 2.23 per cent to $94.91, while Murban crude bucked the trend, falling 1.98 per cent. The choppy price action reflected traders booking profits after last week’s rally even as the unresolved Iran sanctions standoff kept underlying supply risk in focus. 

Indian Markets on Monday Close 

Indian benchmarks reversed early gains to end lower on Monday, with the Sensex falling 171.72 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 77,369.11 and the Nifty 50 declining 32.95 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 24,219.05. Selling was broad-based, with 11 of 16 sectoral indices ending lower, as financial stocks led the drag even as IT and metal counters provided some offsetting support. 

Source

• nseindia.com