HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report 03 july 2026

Global Market Round Up

Gold prices held above $4,100 an ounce on Friday after surging more than 2% in the previous session, supported by weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data that eased expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The softer labor market data weakened the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, boosting demand for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below market expectations, while a weaker private-sector payrolls report released earlier in the week reinforced signs of a cooling labor market. Following the data, traders scaled back expectations for additional Fed tightening, with futures markets now pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a September rate hike, down sharply from nearly 67% before the jobs report.

Additional support came from easing inflation concerns as crude oil prices remained under pressure amid improving shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and continued progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh also noted this week that inflation expectations had moderated while reiterating the central bank’s commitment to maintaining price stability.

Crude oil prices traded near $68.5 per barrel on Friday, hovering around pre-conflict levels as improving supply conditions in the Middle East continued to ease concerns over global oil availability. Progress in U.S.–Iran peace negotiations and the steady recovery in commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have largely removed the geopolitical risk premium from the market.

Supply conditions also continued to normalize, with Saudi Arabia’s crude exports recovering to nearly 90% of pre-war levels as more tankers safely transited the strategic waterway. The UAE has likewise restored exports to pre-conflict levels by utilizing both the Strait of Hormuz and alternative pipeline routes. The improving supply outlook has reinforced expectations of an oversupplied oil market, keeping crude prices under pressure despite ongoing geopolitical negotiations.

Natural gas futures settled modestly lower ahead of the long Independence Day weekend, with the market showing little reaction to a larger-than-expected storage build. The EIA reported an 87 Bcf injection for last week, exceeding both the 81 Bcf market forecast and the 64 Bcf five-year average. Despite the larger inventory build, prices remained relatively stable as traders continued to balance ample storage levels against seasonal cooling demand.

Commodities

Currencies

Global Equity Indices