HSL Prime Research Commodity Daily Report 14 August 2026

GLOBAL MARKET ROUND UP

following the recent rally and reassessed the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Gold struggled to extend its rebound even after softer-than-expected U.S. producer-price data, suggesting that the path toward further gains may remain uneven.

U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in July, following Wednesday’s subdued consumer inflation data, providing further evidence that price pressures are not broadly intensifying. The softer inflation readings have reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider near-term rate increases, with markets now pricing in around a 35% probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September, down from roughly 55% a week earlier. While the shift in rate expectations remains supportive for precious metals, investors appear reluctant to add fresh positions after the recent advance.

Geopolitical developments are also keeping traders cautious. Diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked, leaving the risk of renewed escalation and higher energy prices in focus. Any disruption to regional oil supplies could revive inflation concerns and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, potentially limiting the upside in non-yielding assets despite softer U.S. inflation data.

Crude oil prices traded near $81 per barrel on Friday after declining in the previous session, as investors adopted a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While negotiations remain unresolved, oil shipments continue to move through the Persian Gulf, although some tankers have reportedly switched off their transponders to avoid detection, highlighting the persistent risks facing vessels navigating the strategic waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz remains a key focus for the global oil market, with the U.S. estimating that as much as 9 million barrels of crude per day is currently moving through the waterway. The expanding capacity of U.S. forces to escort tankers could help support the continuity of shipments, but any renewed attack or disruption could quickly tighten the global supply outlook and push prices higher.

Natural gas prices continued to consolidate within a broader range as mixed fundamentals kept the market balanced. Earlier hotter U.S. weather provided some support by raising expectations for stronger cooling demand, while yesterday’s EIA storage report weighed on prices after inventories increased by 36 Bcf, above market expectations of a 31 Bcf build.