HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report: 28 September 2026

Global Market Round Up

Precious metals ended the week lower, with gold and silver pressured by a combination of higher energy prices, a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields. Elevated oil prices reinforced concerns over persistent inflation, while stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to keep monetary policy tighter for longer or raise interest rates further to contain inflation.

The pressure intensified during the latter part of the week, as the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to their highest levels since 2007 and 2004, respectively. At the same time, the dollar index strengthened to around 101, recording its second consecutive weekly gain. The combination of higher yields and a firmer dollar reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets and kept precious metals under pressure. Hawkish commentary from several Federal Reserve officials further reinforced expectations of another rate hike before year-end. As markets reassessed the path of U.S. monetary policy, the dollar and Treasury yields moved to multi-month and multi-year highs, respectively, adding to the headwinds facing gold and silver.

Despite the near-term pressure, gold’s longer-term fundamentals remain constructive, supported by continued central-bank purchases, elevated geopolitical uncertainty, and concerns over fiscal sustainability and currency debasement. The recent correction may attract renewed buying interest from long-term investors, although volatility is likely to remain elevated in the short term as markets reassess the Fed’s policy path.

Crude oil futures settled lower on Friday as markets continued to assess diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route disrupted by the Middle East conflict. While Brent crude managed to gain around 0.4% over the week, U.S. benchmark WTI declined 3.8%, reflecting a divergence between international supply concerns and a softer U.S. domestic market. WTI came under pressure from a weekly build in U.S. commercial crude inventories and lower refinery utilization, raising concerns over near-term domestic demand. By contrast, Brent remained relatively supported by the risk of disruptions to international supplies, widening the spread between the two benchmarks to more than $10 a barrel. The market is also assessing the possibility of restrictions on U.S. diesel exports. Although no decision has been made, such a move could reduce refiners’ incentive to increase operating rates and crude purchases, potentially adding further pressure to WTI. Looking ahead, developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of diplomatic efforts will remain key drivers for crude prices. Brent is likely to remain more sensitive to geopolitical supply risks, while WTI could continue to face pressure from rising U.S. inventories, lower refinery runs and softer domestic fundamentals.

Looking ahead, markets will focus on U.S. GDP, PCE inflation, consumer confidence, non-farm payrolls, Fed commentary and manufacturing PMIs, which are likely to influence commodity markets this week.