India VIX Falls 3.86% to 14.21 as Global Cues and Softer Crude Ease Opening Volatility

Mumbai, Oct 6: India VIX started Tuesday on a calmer note, falling 0.57 points, or 3.86%, to 14.21 by 10:09 IST. The index opened at 14.77, almost unchanged from Monday’s close of 14.78, before slipping to an early low of 14.09. 

The softer reading suggests that traders were expecting less volatility at the start of the session. A positive mood across global markets, firm signals from GIFT Nifty and a decline in crude oil prices helped improve sentiment. Gains across several key domestic sectors also added to the positive tone. 

However, the mood remained cautious. Higher US Treasury yields, weakness in the rupee and uncertainty ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming policy decision continued to weigh on investor sentiment. 

India VIX Slips from 14.77 Opening to 14.09 Low 

India VIX opened at 14.77 on Tuesday, but the index soon began to move lower as the session got underway. By around 9:20 IST, it had eased to 14.48, before falling further to about 14.35 at 9:33 IST, marking a decline of nearly 2.91% at that point. 

The early fall in the volatility index points to a relatively more comfortable start for investors, although market participants continued to watch global bond yields, currency movements and crude prices for signs of a change in sentiment. The index later touched an early session low of 14.09. 

The move comes after India VIX gained 2.21% on Monday to close at 14.78. Despite the rise in volatility, the Nifty ended Monday 0.60% higher, while the Sensex gained 0.66%. Tuesday’s decline in VIX therefore suggests that some of the risk premium built up in the previous session was easing. 

At 10:09 IST, India VIX was at 14.21. The index has traded between 8.72 and 28.90 over the past 52 weeks, while its year-to-date return stood at 48.84%. Its daily technical rating was Neutral. 

Wall Street Gains and Asian Markets Give Indian Equities a Supportive Start 

Global markets offered a positive backdrop for Indian equities on Tuesday. US stocks ended higher overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 1.05% to 27,477.31 and closing at a record level. The S&P 500 gained 0.66%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.18%. 

Technology and artificial intelligence stocks were among the main drivers of the US rally. Nvidia gained around 2.1% and touched another record high, while Microsoft and Meta also ended higher. 

The positive mood carried into Asian markets. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index excluding Japan was up around 0.2%, while Japan’s Nikkei gained about 0.7%. Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures were also trading higher. 

The stronger global risk appetite helped create a more favourable opening for Indian equities and contributed to the early decline in India VIX. At the same time, softer crude prices offered some relief to a market that remains sensitive to imported inflation and currency movements. 

GIFT Nifty Signals Firm Start as Nifty Opens Higher 

GIFT Nifty was around 22,637, up approximately 61 points, or 0.27%, at about 7:55 IST, with other pre-market readings placing it around 22,644–22,650. The signal pointed towards a firm start for Indian equities rather than a sharp gap-down opening. 

At 9:18 IST, the Nifty 50 stood at 22,581.25, up 0.11%, while the Sensex also gained 0.10%. The relatively modest positive opening was accompanied by the decline in India VIX, keeping the volatility index below Monday’s closing level. 

The Nifty’s October futures were around 22,623.70, representing a premium of approximately 68 points. Options positioning included significant call open interest around 23,000 and put open interest around 21,500. 

Crude Falls 1.9% But Remains Near $100 A Barrel 

Crude oil provided some relief to Indian markets after Brent declined approximately 1.9% on Monday. Increased Middle East exports and supply-related developments helped ease immediate supply concerns, while Brent traded around $100 a barrel during Tuesday’s Asian session. 

Brent was reported around $100.51, while other pre-market readings placed it near $100.34. The decline from the previous session reduced some immediate pressure associated with India’s oil import bill, inflation and the rupee. 

However, crude remaining close to $100 a barrel meant that oil continued to be an important macroeconomic factor ahead of the RBI’s policy decision. The softer price movement therefore reduced, rather than removed, the oil-related risk surrounding the market. 

US Treasury Yields Above 5.3% Keep Currency Risks Elevated 

The positive equity-market backdrop was offset by continued pressure in global bond markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield was around 5.3%, while the 30-year yield moved above 5.7%. Both yields reached levels not seen for roughly 24 years, with the 10-year yield touching approximately 5.3493% before easing slightly. 

Higher US yields remained a source of pressure for emerging markets by increasing the relative attraction of US fixed-income assets and supporting the dollar. The US Dollar Index moved above 102, while the euro weakened amid renewed European fiscal and political concerns involving France and Spain. 

The combination of elevated US yields and dollar strength continued to influence the currency and broader risk backdrop for Indian markets. 

Rupee Nears 96.3 as Dollar and Oil Pressure Persists 

The rupee closed Monday at 96.2925 per US dollar and was expected to open around 96.32–96.34 on Tuesday. The currency remained close to its previous record-low area of 96.96, keeping foreign-exchange movements relevant to the Indian market. 

Pressure on the rupee came from elevated crude prices, high US Treasury yields, foreign equity outflows, dollar strength and euro weakness. The RBI was also reported to be intervening in the currency market to moderate the rupee’s decline. 

Despite the currency pressure, the movement was controlled rather than disorderly during the opening period, while India VIX moved lower alongside the broader equity-market recovery. 

FII Selling Meets Strong DII Buying Support 

Foreign institutional investors sold approximately ₹4,699.10 crore of Indian equities on Monday, while domestic institutional investors purchased around ₹5,181.60 crore. 

The contrasting flows provided an important backdrop to Tuesday’s opening. Foreign selling remained a source of market pressure, while domestic institutional purchases provided an offset. This flow combination coincided with the firm opening in equities and the decline in India VIX during the early session. 

RBI Decision Keeps Event Risk Elevated Ahead of 7 October 

The RBI’s monetary-policy decision due on 7 October remained one of the key domestic events surrounding Tuesday’s session. Market attention was focused on the repo-rate decision, inflation assessment, growth outlook, liquidity stance, guidance concerning the rupee and the implications of elevated crude prices. 

India VIX remained above 14 despite its early decline, with the upcoming policy decision keeping a degree of event-related uncertainty in the market. The index’s move therefore reflected lower immediate volatility while the policy event remained one day away. 

Bank Updates and Trent Rally Strengthen Domestic Market 

Domestic corporate developments also supported the opening session. Axis Bank gained about 1.4%, while Kotak Mahindra Bank rose approximately 2.6% after quarterly business updates showed strong growth in advances and deposits. 

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s net advances grew around 24.7% year-on-year, while deposits increased approximately 23.2%. Trent also gained roughly 10% after reporting or indicating around 23% year-on-year growth in standalone September-quarter revenue. 

At 9:18 IST, 10 of 16 major sectors were gaining. The Nifty Small-cap 100 rose 0.6%, the Nifty Mid-cap 100 advanced 0.2%, while financials and banks each gained around 0.5%. 

Technical Levels Keep India VIX Above 14 

India VIX’s daily pivot point stood at 14.54, with classic resistance levels at 15.59, 16.40 and 17.45, while support levels were 13.73, 12.68 and 11.87. Fibonacci resistance levels stood at 15.25, 15.69 and 16.40, with support at 13.83, 13.39 and 12.68. 

Camarilla levels placed resistance at 14.95, 15.12 and 15.29, with support at 14.61, 14.44 and 14.27. The technical rating remained Neutral, while moving averages and technical indicators were not available. 

European Stress and Fed Expectations Shape Global Risk 

European fiscal and political developments added to the global risk backdrop. French government bonds faced renewed pressure, while the euro touched approximately $1.116, its weakest level since May 2025. Spain also faced political uncertainty following Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s call for a snap election. 

At the same time, weaker US employment data had reduced expectations of an aggressive Federal Reserve rate move in October. Market pricing for a Fed hike had fallen to around 23% from 71% a week earlier. The shift supported global equity markets, even as elevated Treasury yields continued to create a counterweight. 

India VIX’s opening-session decline to 14.21 reflected a combination of positive global equities, softer crude, a firm domestic opening and strength in banks and other sectors. However, elevated US yields, rupee pressure, crude near $100, foreign outflows and the 7 October RBI policy decision continued to define the broader volatility backdrop. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix