RBI projects GDP growth of 6.5% for India in FY26

For 2025-26, RBI has projected that India’s real GDP would grow by 6.5%. This is same as the growth rate posted by the economy in 2024-25.

The central bank projected that India’s GDP will grow by 6.5% in the first quarter of FY26; by 6.7% in the second quarter; by 6.6% in the third quarter; and by 6.3% in the fourth quarter.

Merchandize exports expected to be weighed down by trade uncertainty

RBI expects that merchandize exports will continue to be weighed down by trade uncertainty. Services sector will continue to maintain its momentum. Agricultural output is expected to be good because of good monsoon.

Higher tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump poses a challenge for the Indian economy. It may have a significant adverse impact on the exports of the country. Net exports is one of the four components that make up the GDP of a country. The other three components are private consumption, investment and government expenditure. Any significant decline in exports because of higher tariffs imposed by US will have an adverse impact on India’s GDP growth rate.

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