Sensex, Nifty Expected To Open Lower as Israel-Iran Tensions Escalate

Friday, June 13th: Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, are expected to open significantly lower on June 13, due to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The GIFT Nifty currently indicates a start near 24,600, suggesting a substantial drop of over 370 points from its previous close. This anticipated downturn follows reports of an Israeli airstrike on Tehran, which has triggered a widespread global risk-off sentiment.

Crude Oil Surges, FIIs Exit, DIIs Provide Cushion:

The escalating conflict has sent shockwaves through the crude oil markets. Crude prices surged by as much as 8 per cent on Friday, with a 12 per cent weekly gain, marking the sharpest rally since 2022. Analysts are warning of a potential price increase to $130 per barrel in a worst-case scenario, which could significantly impact global and domestic inflationary pressures.

On the domestic front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued their selling spree on June 12, offloading equities worth ₹3,831 crore. This aligns with an ongoing market trend in 2025, where FIIs have been net sellers, pulling out over ₹1.24 lakh crore so far this year. However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have acted as a crucial cushion, remaining net buyers and absorbing the selling pressure with net purchases exceeding ₹3.16 lakh crore.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

Nifty 50

• Resistance: 25,100
• Support: 24,800

The Nifty 50 faced strong resistance near 25,200 and has now dropped below its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). While it still holds above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern and a dip in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) from 60 to 55 points indicates weakening momentum. A break below 24,800 could lead to sharper declines.

Nifty Bank

• Immediate Support: 56,000–56,200 zone
• Critical Support: 55,300
• Resistance: 56,700

The Nifty Bank index experienced mild profit booking and is currently hovering near its previous breakout level. A breach below its critical support of 55,300 would signal further downside and a potential shift in the short-term trend to negative.

Market Sentiment Indicators

• India VIX: Rose 2.54 per cent to 14.02, still below the critical 15 mark, which favours bulls.
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Fell to 0.92 from 0.97, indicating a decline in bullish sentiment. A PCR above 0.7 usually implies strengthening bullishness, but the decline now hints at caution.

What’s Ahead?

Markets may see some continued weakness if tensions between Israel and Iran remain elevated, especially with rising crude oil prices adding pressure. Sectors such as oil and gas, aviation, and transportation could be impacted the most. While FII outflows may keep sentiment cautious, steady DII buying could help limit sharp falls. Technically, a break below 24,800 on the Nifty might lead to further downside. The opening session on June 13 will be closely watched for cues on near-term direction.

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