Sensex, Nifty Poised for Firm Open as Israel-Iran Truce Calms Geopolitical Jitters

Mumbai, June 25: Indian benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, are expected to open on a positive note today, Wednesday, June 25, driven by the stabilisation of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as supportive global market cues.

At 8:40 a.m., Gift Nifty was trading at 25,190, up 36.50 points or 0.15%, signalling a firm start. The index opened at 25,171.50, touched an early high of 25,188.00, and recorded a low of 25,152.00, indicating a steady upward momentum after closing the previous session at 25,153.50. This comes after a volatile Tuesday, during which markets erased significant early gains due to renewed fears of conflict.

FIIs Register Sharpest Single-Day Selloff in June, DIIs Provide Support

On June 24, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) net sold equities worth ₹5,266 crore, marking their largest single-day outflow in June. This was largely attributed to the brief resurfacing of tensions following reported ceasefire violations between Israel and Iran.

However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided a counterbalancing force, net buying equities worth ₹5,209.60 crore on June 24, absorbing a significant portion of the FII selling pressure.

Key Technical Levels to Track

Nifty 50

• Resistance: 25,200–25,250. A close above this could unlock further upside to 25,500.
• Support: 24,700–24,750. This zone continues to act as a strong base.
• Trend: The index remains above its 10-day and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing a bullish structure.
• Caution: A bearish candlestick with an upper shadow signals resistance at higher levels, keeping the index range-bound until a breakout.

Bank Nifty

• Support Zone: 56,000–55,500. The index shows steady accumulation here.
• Upside Trigger: A close above 57,000 could drive gains toward 57,500–57,700.
• Short-Term Bias: Backed by short-term EMAs, the outlook remains positive unless 55,500 is breached.

Market Indicators

• India VIX: Fell 2.88% to 13.64, remaining below the 15-mark, signalling stable sentiment.
• Put-Call Ratio: Dropped to 0.80 from 1.01, indicating higher call writing and a mildly bearish undertone.
• Max Pain Point: Positioned at 24,800, possibly anchoring prices near this level as expiry approaches.

Global Sentiment and Crude Movement

U.S. equities closed higher overnight, reflecting improved global sentiment. Crucially, Brent crude prices tumbled a significant 6% to a two-week low on Tuesday, and currently, on Wednesday, crude oil prices are slightly up at around $65.34/Bbl for WTI and $67.89/Bbl for Brent, recovering some ground after Tuesday’s sharp decline, but remain significantly lower than recent highs. The easing of geopolitical risks is reducing fears of major oil supply disruptions from the Middle East, which is expected to provide tailwinds for Indian markets and help temper inflationary concerns.

What’s Ahead?

Markets are likely to open on a firm note supported by easing geopolitical tensions, softer crude prices, and strong global cues. However, caution may persist due to recent FII outflows and expiry-related volatility. Watch for Nifty’s ability to hold above 25,200 for bullish momentum and monitor Bank Nifty’s behaviour around 56,000–57,000. Sector rotation and stock-specific action may dominate as the expiry nears, with a focus on auto, infrastructure, and banking names.

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