Stock Prices of BPCL, HPCL Up by More Than 1% Today

July 08 2025: The shares of two of the major OMC (Oil Marketing Companies): Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are up today. The stocks have rallied up to 57% from their low points in March 2025. The surge is also supported by expectations of strong first-quarter earnings announcements and favourable sectoral dynamics, such as a decline in the Brent crude price, which results in lower input costs.

At 01:30 PM, BPCL traded at 356.70 (up by 1.77%) and HPCL at 453.95 (up by 1.35%).

Stock Performance Highlights

On Tuesday, BPCL was trading at ₹357.55, and HPCL was trading at ₹ 452.40 on the BSE. HPCL’s stock has jumped 57% from its 52-week low of ₹287.55, reached on March 3, 2025, and is now near its record high of ₹457.20, hit on September 5, 2024. BPCL has similarly risen 53% from its March low of ₹234.15 and is close to its all-time high of ₹376, last seen on September 30, 2024.

Strong Q1FY26 Outlook for OMCs

Oil marketing companies (OMCs) are expected to deliver strong earnings for Q1FY26, driven by:

• Lower crude prices, which dropped 12% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 18% year-on-year (YoY)
• Stable retail fuel prices
• Rise in domestic LPG prices, partially offsetting the ₹2/litre hike in excise duty

Brokerages project robust EBITDA growth for the quarter:

• BPCL: 53% QoQ and over 2x YoY
• HPCL: 49% QoQ and over 4x YoY
• IOC: 31% QoQ and over 2x YoY

JM Financial expects BPCL and HPCL’s EBITDA to rise by 52% to 69% QoQ, mainly driven by a sharp improvement in auto fuel marketing margins. IOC, however, may see a 24% QoQ EBITDA increase due to inventory-related losses.

Strategic Viewpoints and Capex Plans

While some brokerages remain cautious due to high valuations and aggressive capex plans, Elara Capital has maintained a positive view on OMCs. The firm expects:

• Government support in allowing above-historical integrated margins
• A required ₹3,250 per tonne margin for BPCL to fund its energy transition investments and double its profits over five years

HPCL is optimistic about the continuation of favourable crude prices through 2025. The company is also focusing on:

• Retail network expansion
• Improved outlet throughput
• Enhanced marketing efforts to gain market share, aiding long-term growth

Outlook

The rally in BPCL and HPCL reflects investor confidence in the near-term earnings trajectory and potential policy support for integrated margins. With oil prices remaining supportive and companies aligning for energy transition, the stocks may continue to attract market interest.

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