The Prime Daily: 09 July 2026

Authored By Prime Research | Last Modified: Jul 9, 2026 10:24 AM IST

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Geopolitical concerns trigger volatility

U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday after President Trump declared at the NATO summit in Ankara that the interim ceasefire with Iran was “over,” following U.S. strikes on more than 80 Iranian targets and Iranian retaliation against U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.

The Dow Jones fell more than 560 points, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, while the Nasdaq pared early losses to close slightly higher. Equity markets across Europe and Asia sold off in sympathy yesterday.

Oil surged on fears of disruption through the Strait of Hormuz: Brent crude jumped more than 6% to near $79 a barrel, and WTI climbed above $74, both marking their sharpest single-day gains in five weeks.

A U.S. decision to revoke Iran’s oil-export waiver added to supply concerns, even as the EIA reported an unexpected build in domestic crude stockpiles. Treasury yields rose alongside oil on renewed inflation worries.

Minutes from the Fed’s June meeting showed policymakers unanimously voting to hold rates steady while flagging elevated upside inflation risks. Several participants warned that AI-related capital spending, higher tariffs, and Middle East tensions could keep price pressures elevated — though the minutes also revealed divided

Views on the path ahead: some officials expect inflation to fade, while others favour further hikes later this year.

The Indian rupee fell the most among the Asian currencies, depreciating by 59 paise to close at 95.56, its lowest level since June 11, 2026. The currency was weighed down by a sharp rise in crude oil prices and a risk-off sentiment triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks on ending the ceasefire with Iran. Escalating geopolitical tensions have increased the risk premium, contributing to heightened market volatility.

TCS, the bellwether of Indian IT, will set the tone with its results — a beat or miss that could reshape sector sentiment and foreign flows. Expect its guidance to decide whether the IT pack rides a renewed rally or faces a prolonged de-rating.

Today’s Sensex weekly expiry could spike intraday volatility as traders roll positions and adjust exposures.

The decisive breach of key Nifty support levels at 24,200 and 24,000 weakens the short-term trend. The next support zone is located in the 23,817-23,645 band, derived from the upward gap formed on 15 June 2026. On the upside, 24,000 has now turned into immediate resistance.

Indian markets are set to open on a mildly positive note amid encouraging Asian cues.

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