India's April Barometer: Soft Inflation, Strong Demand (+13% GST) & Mixed Jobs, Exports Up, SIPs Down (-ve Net).

India’s economic landscape in April 2025 presented a picture of sustained growth momentum alongside emerging shifts in key indicators. Building on the trends from February, GST collections saw a robust increase, while inflation remained benign. The manufacturing and services sectors continued their expansion. However, the employment scenario showed a divergence between urban and rural areas. This Bharat Barometer offers an analysis of the macroeconomic and sectoral trends shaping India’s economic trajectory.

Macroeconomic Indicators (Score: 4/5)

• GST Collection: Growth accelerated to 13% in April-25, up from 9% in Feb-25.
• CPI & Core CPI: CPI remained low at 3.2% (vs. 3.6% in Feb-25); Core CPI edged up to 4.2% (vs. 4.0% in Feb-25).
• WPI: Softened further to 1% in April-25 (vs. 2% in Jan-25).
• Unemployment: Urban unemployment improved to 8.12% (vs. 7.81% in Feb-25), while rural unemployment increased to 7.52% (vs. 8.78% in Feb-25).
• PMI Trends: Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.2 (vs. 56.3 in Feb-25), and Services PMI increased to 58.7 (vs. 59.0 in Feb-25); Composite PMI stood at 59.7 (vs. 58.8 in Feb-25).

External Sector Trends (Score: 3/5)

• Exports & Imports: Goods exports turned positive at 1% (vs. -1% in Feb-25), while imports grew at 11% (same as Feb-25).
• Services Trade: Export growth picked up to 19% (vs. 12% in Feb-25), while import growth softened to 5% (vs. 12% in Feb-25).
• FDI Inflows: Turned negative again after being positive in the previous month; exact figures unavailable for April.

Government Finances (Score: 2/5)

• Direct Tax Collection: Growth slightly improved to 12% (vs. 11% in Feb-25).
• Revenue & Capital Expenditure: Revenue expenditure growth declined to -13% (vs. 5% in Feb-25), while capital expenditure contracted significantly by -35% (vs. MoM decline in Feb-25).
• Subsidy Payouts: Continued to decline sharply for the third consecutive month at -44%.

Industrial Activity (Score: 3/5)

• E-Way Bills & Freight: E-Way bill growth remained strong at 23% (up from 15% in Feb-25).
• Cargo Movement: Port cargo showed strong improvement at 13% growth (vs. slight improvement in Feb-25), while airport cargo growth turned negative at -5% (vs. stable trends in Feb-25).
• Industrial Production: Power generation turned negative at -2% (vs. marginal rise in Feb-25), while steel consumption remained strong at 14% (vs. moderated growth of 10% in Feb-25).
• Energy & Materials: Coal offtake growth turned negative at -1% (vs. declined growth in Feb-25), and petroleum consumption growth remained muted at 0% (vs. further moderated growth in Feb-25).

Demand & Consumption (Score: 3/5)

• Vehicle Sales: Overall auto registrations showed muted growth at 3% (vs. growth in Feb-25), and passenger vehicle sales data is not available for April.
• Insurance Premiums: Life insurance premium growth turned positive at 2% (vs. pressure in Feb-25), and non-life insurance saw strong growth at 14% (vs. marginal gains in Feb-25).
• Consumer Sentiment: Rural sentiment softened to 111.9 (vs. muted in Feb-25), while urban sentiment improved to 108.8 (vs. firm in Feb-25).

Banking & Money Flow (Score: 3/5)

• M3 Money Supply: Growth remained stable at 10% (same as Feb-25).
• Retail Payments: UPI transactions growth remained strong but softened to 34% (vs. softened MoM in Feb-25), while IMPS transactions continued to decline at -13% (same as Feb-25).
• SCB Credit & Deposits: Growth remained flattish at low double-digit levels of 10% for both (same as Feb-25).

Rural Indicators (Score: 3/5)

• Reservoir Storage: Continued strong YoY growth at 21% (vs. declining from peak in Feb-25 commentary, but actual YoY growth not provided for Feb).
• Agricultural Machinery: Tractor sales growth remained strong at 7% (vs. softened in Feb-25), and two-wheeler sales improved significantly to 11% (vs. slight improvement in Feb-25).
• Rural Employment: Growth accelerated to 5% (vs. muted post increase in Feb-25 commentary, but actual YoY growth not provided for Feb).

Capital Markets (Score: 1/5)

• Mutual Funds: Equity MF net inflows continued to decline to 28% YoY growth (vs. declined MoM in Feb-25 commentary, but actual YoY growth not provided for Feb).
• Stock Market: NSE trading volume saw a significant contraction of -28% YoY (vs. rapid contraction in Feb-25 commentary, but actual YoY growth not provided for Feb).
• FII Inflows: Turned positive at USD 510 million after persistent outflows (vs. outflows persisted in Feb-25 commentary, but actual figures unavailable).
• SIP Contributions: Growth continued to moderate to 31% YoY (vs. declining MoM growth in Feb-25 commentary, but actual YoY growth not provided for Feb), with net new registrations remaining negative.