Technology earnings and Fed policy to shape a volatile week ahead

The coming week is set to be volatile, with markets focused on the US Fed meeting, advance GDP, PCE inflation, and Manufacturing PMI. While rate futures indicate a 99% probability of a Fed pause, investors remain alert to changes in guidance, especially amid speculation around Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell’s potential successor and persistent core inflation.

Mega-cap technology earnings will be a key driver of sentiment. Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta together representing nearly 25% of the S&P 500’s market cap—report results, with the “Magnificent Seven” expected to deliver 22.8% Q1 earnings growth, far outpacing the rest of the index.

Geopolitical risks linger as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, supporting oil prices above $100/bbl. This has pressured the Indian rupee beyond 94/USD, contributing to Moody’s lowering India’s FY27 GDP growth forecast to 6%.

Domestically, positives include the India–New Zealand FTA and Sun Pharma’s $11.75 bn acquisition of Organon, positioning it among the top 25 global pharma players. Indian markets are expected to open higher on supportive global cues despite recent weakness in the Nifty.

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