GIFT Nifty Indicates Flat Start; Wall Street Drops, Asia Mixed Amid Fed Watch and Iran Conflict

Mumbai, June 18: Domestic equities are likely to start today’s market session on a muted note as the Gift Nifty closed marginally higher by 30.50 points at 24,833.00, reflecting limited momentum as geopolitical tensions and global rate expectations weigh on sentiment. The index opened at 24,790.50, slightly lower than its previous close of 24,802.50, suggesting a cautious tone in early trade.

Global Markets Brace for Fed Decision as Oil Jumps on Middle East Tensions

Wall Street ended lower overnight as investors eagerly awaited the US Federal Reserve’s policy outcome later today. While the Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady, the market’s focus is on the updated “dot plot,” which will offer crucial insights into policymakers’ future rate hike projections.

Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Middle East added to market jitters. Reports suggest President Donald Trump is considering a military strike on Iran, significantly heightening risk perceptions. Brent crude spiked $3.22 to $76.45, and WTI rose $3.07 to $74.84, both marking a 4% surge, even without immediate disruptions to oil supply chains. This jump highlights market sensitivity to geopolitical events.

Asia Mixed, US Futures Soft

Asian markets performed in a mixed tone. Japanese and South Korean indices posted modest gains, while Chinese stocks continued to remain under pressure. US equity futures trended lower, reflecting overnight losses across the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Concerns around a potential recession, persistent inflation, and the deepening Middle East conflict continue to dominate investor sentiment.

India VIX Cools, But Nifty’s Rebound Lacks Strength

Volatility in India eased slightly, with the India VIX slipping below the 15 mark to close at 14.4, down 2.93%. While this offers some short-term relief, technical indicators suggest the market’s rebound lacks significant underlying strength:

• RSI has dipped to 53, indicating weakening momentum.
• Key support levels are located at 24,700 and 24,650, while resistance remains in the 25,000–25,170 range.

Bank Nifty remains range-bound near its 20-day EMA. RSI and MACD reflect consolidation, with immediate support at 55,350 and resistance around 56,100–56,200.

Indian Market Recap (June 17)

Indian equities declined on Monday, reversing part of the gains made in the previous session. The Sensex fell 212.85 points to 81,583.30, while the Nifty 50 dropped 93.10 points to 24,853.40.

The broader market underperformed, with BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices down 0.5% each.

Top Nifty Gainers and Losers

Sectoral Snapshot

The Nifty Pharma index tumbled 2%, following remarks by Donald Trump suggesting upcoming pharma tariffs. Most other indices were in the red, except IT, which closed with gains.

Market View

While GIFT Nifty reflects a modestly positive bias, Indian equities are factoring in global macroeconomic cues, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and geopolitical headlines. The upcoming Federal Reserve decision and developments in the Iran-Israel conflict remain key factors in shaping near-term sentiment. Market participants may continue to monitor these evolving dynamics while managing risk.

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