Gift Nifty Predicts Weak Opening for Indian Stocks on Wednesday

Mumbai, Sept 15: Gift Nifty indicated a weak open for Indian stocks on Wednesday, with Nifty near-month future trading at 23,202.50 as of the last available intraday price, down 309.50 points or 1.32 per cent. It had earlier opened at 23,524, hit an intraday high of 23,550.50 and fell through the session to an intraday low of 23,144 before recovering to trade around current levels. Separately, the October 27 contract was down 340.50 points or 1.44 per cent at 23,267 while the November 23 future fell 391.50 points or 1.64 per cent to 23,465, indicating a broad-based reset in expectations across contracts months. The choppy yet consistent slide through the session, rather than a dramatic one-off drop suggests markets are gradually repricing risk around both the Gulf conflict and this week’s US Federal Reserve rate decision, rather than reacting to one fresh trigger. Here’s what else moves markets:  

Oil 

Global crude benchmarks continued to trade higher on Wednesday, with Wall Street Journal’s WTI Crude oil up 2.54 per cent to trade at $103.97 a barrel and Brent crude up 2.03 per cent at $107.83, while Murban crude traded 0.69 per cent higher at $128.64. Gasoline added 2.07 per cent and heating oil gained 3.43 per cent. The OPEC basket price rallied 7.15 per cent to $123.11, its biggest one-session increase among the above benchmarks, while Mars crude declined 0.98 per cent and natural gas eased 0.35 per cent. WTI Midland rose 1.88 per cent to $105.50, highlighting that the up-move remains broad-based for now as worries about the conflict in the Gulf disrupting regional supply routes continue to mount. Meanwhile, Asian stocks ended mixed on Tuesday.  

Asian stocks ended mixed on Tuesday  

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.00 per cent to 24,667.24, Malaysia’s KLCI declined 1.11 per cent to 1,679.21, Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite dropped 1.13 per cent to 6,461.15 and Pakistan’s KSE 100 index fell 1.49 per cent to 167,970.66. Australia’s All Ordinaries slipped 0.84 per cent to 8,849.30 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.01 per cent to 63,484.10. However, Vietnam’s HNX 30 bucked the weak trend to trade 1.78 per cent higher at 448.20.  

Iran War Escalates Further  

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched a new barrage of missiles and drones towards Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, targeting a military airbase in Khamis Mushait, Saudi Arabia and injuring thirteen civilians. The group also dug into defences along Yemen’s Red Sea coast late Monday after days of relentless Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in the region. Gulf Arab states delayed planned talks with Iran after the escalation in Houthi attacks overnight, raising fears that the war could further widen beyond Yemen and disrupt global crude supplies. Washington has so far rebuffed Saudi calls for direct military intervention beyond providing intelligence support. US President Donald Trump said he had spoken with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday.  

Fed Rate Decision Looms  

Markets are also awaiting the outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s rate decision later this week. They are currently pricing in about a 90 per cent chance of a quarter percentage point rate hike. If delivered, it will be the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023 and would mark a dramatic reversal from the expected rate-cut path that many investors were expecting at the beginning of this year. Oil prices continue to surge while elevated geopolitical risk threaten to keep inflation pressures sticky, though broader growth cues are mixed ahead of the decision. An increase would tighten financial conditions further for emerging markets like India that are already grappling with high crude prices and struggling to stabilise risk appetite.

The Sensex fell 777.94 points, or 1.04%, to 74,003.82, while the Nifty declined 279.50 points, or 1.19%, to 23,118.60, its lowest ending in five months.
Heavyweight financial stocks fell 1.8%, while auto stocks declined 2%. The benchmarks had opened higher despite weak global cues, supported by a rally in technology stocks and gains in HDFC Bank. The gains failed to stay. 

The surge in oil prices is negative for India, which relies heavily on imports to meet its crude requirements. Higher oil prices can widen the current account deficit, pressure the rupee and add to inflation. 

Global Yields, Fed In Focus 

Investor caution was also driven by a sharp rise in global bond yields ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The US 10-year Treasury yield had moved briefly above 5% on Monday, raising concerns over tighter global financial conditions and the possibility of a more hawkish rate outlook. 

Source

•  NSEIX.com
• OilPrice.com
• Reuters