Gift Nifty Signals Bullish Opening for Sensex and Nifty on Tuesday

Mumbai, Oct 5: Gift Nifty signals a positive opening for Indian shares on Tuesday. The front-month contract was last seen trading at 22,621.50, up 45.50 points, or 0.2 per cent. This is about 66 points above the Nifty 50’s Monday close of 22,555.75, indicating that the index may open in the green and extend the gains recorded after four consecutive sessions of losses. 

The front-month futures contract opened at 22,640 on Monday and climbed as high as 22,723 during the day. It dropped to 22,501 around noon but found support later and managed to remain near 22,600 towards the close. The next-month contract was last traded at 22,615.50, unchanged for the day. The contract witnessed a volatility of 222 points throughout Monday’s session. 

US Fed Might Not Raise Interest Rates 

Global cues have also improved. After the rate hike in September, New York Fed chief John Williams stated that there is “no rush” to hike rates again. Following his comments, the probability of a rate hike in October has declined to 25 per cent from 70 per cent earlier in the week. This puts the probability of the US Fed not hiking rates at around 75 per cent. Expectations were further supported by the subpar jobs report released in the US. Fed member Philip Jefferson had also said on Oct 1 that the central bank may hold off on taking action anytime soon. 

This would be positive news for Indian markets. Any increase in US interest rates has historically been negative for emerging markets, as foreign funds tend to move out of these countries. With markets having fallen for eight consecutive weeks, it is important that the US Fed does not hike rates this time. However, the 10-year US bond yield is currently trading at 5.277 per cent, so it will be interesting to see what the Fed has to say this month. 

Asian Markets 

Most Asian indices were in the green on Monday morning. Japan’s Nikkei index was up 2.4 per cent at 69,946.86, while Taiwan’s index was up 2.55 per cent at 49,712.04. South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.46 per cent to 7,003.74. China’s Shanghai index was up 0.31 per cent at 3,842.195, while Shenzhen fell 0.11 per cent to 12,887.62. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.28 per cent at 24,040.34. Australia’s ASX 200 closed almost flat at 8,686.4, up 0.05 per cent. 

US stock markets ended higher on Friday. The Nasdaq was up 1.19 per cent at 27,190.864, while the S&P 500 gained 0.73 per cent to 7,722.72. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 0.49 per cent at 51,176.96. 

Oil Prices 

Crude oil prices remained mixed on Monday following comments by Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude declined 1 per cent to USD 90.20 per barrel, while Brent crude was up 0.10 per cent at USD 102.35. Murban crude was down 1.05 per cent at USD 109.66, while the OPEC basket of crude was up 1.42 per cent at USD 108.82. 

The Speaker of Parliament in Iran said that the country would not reopen the strait until its seven conditions are fulfilled. These conditions are based on the Islamabad MoU signed in June. Before the war broke out at the end of February, the strait accounted for one-fifth of the world’s supply of oil and LNG. 

Qatar is passing on messages between the US and Iran, while Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran would retaliate if the US takes up arms once again. As most of India’s oil imports come from the Middle East, Brent crude trading above USD 100 is a cause for concern. 

Market Wrap-Up 

Indian indices rose on Monday after crude prices eased and concerns over a US Fed rate hike faded. The Sensex rose 0.66 per cent to 72,382.47. The Nifty 50 gained 0.60 per cent, or 133.80 points, to close at 22,555.75, reclaiming the 22,500 level. 

The index rose after falling for eight consecutive weeks, marking its longest losing streak in 25 years. Banking stocks performed well, with PNB up 2.5 per cent, BAJFINANCE up 2.3 per cent and BANKBARODA up 0.9 per cent following a good quarter update. 

HCLTECH, MAXHEALTH, ASIANPAINT and APOLLOHOSP were among the biggest losers on the Nifty. There were 1,991 stocks in the positive, while 2,297 stocks were in the red. 

Sources

• NSE
• BSE
• https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-may-take-time-make-next-interest-rate-move-jefferson-says-2026-10-01/
• www.cnbc.com
• www.oilprice.com