Gift Nifty Signals Lower Opening for Sensex, Nifty as Asia Slips, Oil Rises Ahead of RBI Decision

Mumbai, Oct 7: Indian markets are set to open modestly lower on Wednesday, with Gift Nifty down 0.51 per cent. Asian stocks are falling, oil is rising and investors are cautious before the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announces the repo rate at 10 am today. The strong US market close on Tuesday is the only silver lining. 

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its decision at 10 am, followed by Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s press conference at noon. The repo rate has stayed at 5.25 per cent for four straight reviews after 125 basis points of cuts in 2025. A 25 basis point hike which is expected would be the first since February 2023.

Gift Nifty futures for October 27 were quoted at 22,682.50 at 8:21 am, down 116.50 points, or 0.51 per cent, from the previous close of 22,799. The contract trades 93.60 points, or 0.41 per cent, below the Nifty 50’s Tuesday close of 22,776.10. That points to a lower open after two straight sessions of gains. 

Economists lean towards a hike. A Reuters poll of 61 economists found 35 expecting an increase of 25 basis points.  

Global tightening adds pressure. The US Federal Reserve raised rates in September, the Bank of Japan lifted its rate to 1.25 per cent, and the rupee has weakened about 6 per cent this year. The Nifty is up 354.15 points, or 1.58 per cent, in two sessions, so the Governor’s guidance on further hikes matters. 

Asian Markets 

Most Asian markets were lower on Wednesday morning. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.86 per cent to 70,074.13, South Korea’s Kospi 0.97 per cent to 6,874.33, Singapore’s Straits Times 0.93 per cent to 5,648.52 and Malaysia 0.99 per cent to 1,617.19. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.62 per cent to 24,129.83 and Taiwan’s index 0.08 per cent to 49,783.26. Australia’s ASX 200 was the lone gainer, up 0.07 per cent at 8,741.8, while mainland Chinese markets remain shut until October 8. 

US Markets 

US stocks ended higher on Tuesday. The S&P 500 gained 0.58 per cent to 7,818.93, the Dow Jones rose 0.49 per cent to 51,521.28 and the Nasdaq added 0.45 per cent to 27,599.886. The VIX fell 3.29 per cent to 15.01, though the US 10-year yield edged up to 5.311 per cent. 

Oil Prices 

Oil prices rose in early trade, with Brent crude up 0.83 per cent at USD 101.41 per barrel, back above USD 100 after slipping below it on Tuesday. WTI crude gained 0.78 per cent to USD 90.16, while Murban fell 2.66 per cent to USD 106.19. Gasoline rose 1.83 per cent to USD 3.333 and heating oil 1.23 per cent to USD 4.625. 

Iran War 

US Vice President JD Vance told Reuters that Iran must make a “meaningful” cut in its nuclear enrichment capacity to end the seven-month war. The two sides have exchanged proposals aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but President Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s latest offer and warned that military operations could intensify after the midterm elections. Vance said Washington is unsure how decisions are made in Tehran, while Iran blamed contradictory messaging from US officials. Vance added that Iranian forces can strike ships in the Strait of Hormuz but are largely unable to stop energy exports. 

Market Wrap-Up 

The Sensex and Nifty closed higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, with the Sensex up 685.34 points, or 0.95 per cent, at 73,067.81 and the Nifty up 220.35 points, or 0.98 per cent, at 22,776.10, helped by easing crude and strong business updates. Breadth was firmly positive, with 2,685 shares advancing against 1,495 declining. Trent (TRENT) surged 12.6 per cent after reporting 23 per cent revenue growth, Kotak Mahindra Bank (KOTAKBANK) gained 3.8 per cent, Reliance Industries (RELIANCE) 2.7 per cent and Axis Bank (AXISBANK) 2.1 per cent. Most sectoral indices ended higher, led by gains of 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent in banks, consumer durables, energy, FMCG, metals, pharma and telecom, while Realty fell 0.7 per cent, IT 0.6 per cent and PSU Bank 0.3 per cent. 

Sources

• NSE
• BSE
• https://www.reuters.com/world/interview-us-vice-president-vance-says-iran-must-cut-enrichment-end-war-2026-10-06/
• www.cnbc.com
• www.oilprice.com