Gold and Silver Log First Weekly Gain in Five as Weak US Jobs Data Cools Rate Hike Fears

Mumbai, July 4: Gold and silver prices staged a dramatic recovery in the final trading week of June and early July, with both precious metals recording their first weekly gain in five weeks. The rally was primarily driven by weaker-than-expected US employment data, which significantly reduced expectations of further aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.

Spot gold gained 1.4% to USD 4,179.42 per ounce by the end of the week, while COMEX gold surged nearly 2% to USD 4,202.80 per ounce, touching an intraday high of USD 4,206.70. Silver outperformed, with COMEX silver jumping 2.82% to USD 62.785 per ounce.

Domestically, MCX gold futures for August delivery jumped by ₹1,952, or 1.34%, to ₹1.47 lakh per 10 grams, while silver futures for July delivery climbed by ₹4,096, or 1.76%, to ₹2.37 lakh per kilogram.

Gold and Silver Extend Losing Streak in Opening Week as Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Hike Bets Intensify

Gold prices continued their downward trajectory on Monday, June 29, as rising tensions between the United States and Iran lifted crude oil prices, raising inflation concerns and reducing the appeal of the non-yielding precious metal. Persistent expectations that the Federal Reserve could continue with interest rate hikes also added pressure, as gold does not generate interest income.

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As of 0602 GMT, spot gold slipped 0.8% to USD 4,057.77 per ounce, while US gold futures for August delivery fell 0.6% to USD 4,072.20. Silver also remained under pressure. Meanwhile, both Tehran and Washington agreed to suspend recent hostilities in the Gulf and resume discussions over their dispute involving the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Axios report.

Gold Fell Below USD 4,000 on Tuesday While Silver Slid 21% Ahead of Its Worst Quarter Since 2013

Tuesday, June 30, witnessed intensified selling pressure as gold fell below the psychologically crucial level of USD 4,000 per ounce. The metal was heading for its sharpest quarterly decline in more than a decade. Spot gold inched up 0.4% to USD 4,031.29 per ounce as of 1150 GMT but remained on track for its worst quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2013.

Gold fell to USD 3,955, nearing a 12% monthly decline, while silver dropped 21% in June. Domestic prices reflected the global weakness, with 24 carat gold falling by ₹1,800 per 10 grams to ₹1,40,130, while 22 carat declined by ₹1,650 to ₹1,28,450.

According to MCX, domestic spot gold prices fell by ₹15,100, or nearly 10%, in June to ₹1,40,864 per 10 grams, while silver rates dropped by ₹38,250, or almost 15%, to ₹2,25,125 per kg on June 30. The increasing interest rate bets pushed the dollar index higher above 101, weighing on bullion as dollar-priced metals became expensive for holders of other currencies.

According to MCX, domestic spot gold prices fell by ₹15,100, or nearly 10%, in June to ₹1,40,864 per 10 grams, while silver rates dropped by ₹38,250, or almost 15%, to ₹2,25,125 per kg on June 30.

Gold Edged Higher on Wednesday as Markets Awaited Crucial US Jobs Report

Wednesday, July 1, saw gold and silver prices edge higher as investors narrowed short positions ahead of the US release of the June non-farm payrolls report. Spot gold prices rose 0.54% to approximately USD 4,028.2 per ounce, while spot silver prices increased 0.29% to USD 58.63 per ounce.

Gold fluctuated between USD 3,959.4 and USD 4,036.4 per ounce, remaining above the support level from late June but still failing to break the key resistance level of USD 4,100 per ounce. Silver traded between USD 57.05 and USD 59.24 per ounce.

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However, MCX gold for August delivery was trading 0.86% lower at ₹1,41,300 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September futures were down 2.06% at ₹2,23,850 per kg around 9:10 am. Gold and silver prices declined sharply in the domestic futures market tracking weakness in global bullion prices amid rising US Treasury yields and firm expectations of higher interest rates.

Gold and Silver Advanced on Thursday Amid Weaker Dollar and Softer Fed Outlook

Thursday, July 2, marked the beginning of a significant rally as gold prices rebounded by ₹3,000 to ₹1.47 lakh per 10 grams in the national capital, halting a two-day slide. Silver continued its upward trajectory for the third consecutive session, rising ₹5,000 to ₹2,40,000 per kilogram.

Globally, spot gold gained USD 38.75, or 1%, to USD 4,070.04 per ounce, and silver rose 1.3% to USD 59.89 per ounce. Traders attributed the recovery to a rally in overseas markets, while silver continued to gain on sustained industrial and investment demand. “Gold prices edged higher on Thursday after US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh struck a less hawkish tone than markets had anticipated, easing concerns over an imminent interest rate hike,” said Analysts. Spot gold traded nearly 1% higher to trade at USD 4,072 per ounce as the US dollar index eased slightly.

The softer dollar was attributed to the strength of the Japanese Yen following reports of the Bank of Japan’s intervention. “A weak dollar makes gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, boosting global demand and supporting prices,” added analysts

Gold Surged Above ₹1.5 Lakh on Friday as Weak US Jobs Data Weighs on Dollar

Gold prices maintained their elevated levels in the national capital on Friday, following Thursday’s sharp rally triggered by weaker-than-expected US employment data. The yellow metal of 99.9% purity traded at ₹1,40,920 per 10 grams in Delhi and Chennai, while Mumbai, Kolkata, and Hyderabad recorded ₹1,40,770. Silver advanced for the fourth consecutive session, rising ₹5,000, or 2.08%, to ₹2,45,000 per kilogram.

In the international markets, spot gold extended gains to edge close to USD 4,200 per ounce, building on Thursday’s rally as the dollar held below 101. Bullion was on track for a weekly gain of 2.2%, its first since the week ended May 29. COMEX gold surged nearly 2% to USD 4,202.80 per ounce, touching an intraday high of USD 4,206.70, while COMEX silver jumped 2.82% to USD 62.785 per ounce. Spot silver gained 2.9% to USD 62.80 per ounce.

Also Read: How to Invest in Gold Online

The rally was driven by a weaker US dollar and diminished prospects for aggressive interest rate increases. Following the release of the US nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, which showed the economy added only 57,000 jobs in June against expectations of 110,000, traders reduced expectations of a September rate hike. The probability fell to around 54% from 66% before the data. The dollar was also headed for a weekly decline, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies.

India Gold Demand Eases as Prices Rebound from Three-Month Low

India gold prices rose to as much as ₹148,046 per 10 grams (USD 1,553) after having touched ₹140,450, the lowest level since March 27, on Tuesday. Prices fell about 8.4% in June, the first monthly drop since March, tracking volatility in international gold prices. “Many buyers were waiting for a price correction.

Once prices corrected, they began making small purchases at the beginning of the week,” said a Kolkata-based jeweller. Dealers quoted a premium of up to USD 5 an ounce and a discount of USD 7 over official domestic prices this week, inclusive of 15% import and 3% sales levies, compared to last week’s premium of up to USD 6. Jewellers were purchasing, but volatile prices made them cautious.

The lean demand season has now started, as there are no major festivals soon,” said bullion dealers. Gold prices in Delhi reached ₹1,44,700 per 10 grams, while Mumbai recorded ₹1,44,550.

Central Bank Buying and Easing Inflation Concerns Provide Additional Support

The World Gold Council reported that central banks returned to buying in May, with official gold reserves increasing by a net 41 tonnes during the month. Falling crude oil prices helped calm inflation concerns, while geopolitical developments, particularly renewed Iran-US discussions around the Strait of Hormuz, also increased safe-haven buying interest.

“Lower energy prices and softer job growth suggest inflationary pressures are likely to ease in the months ahead,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. The reduction in Fed hike expectations likely prompted traders to cover short-gold positions established earlier, along with reducing incentive to liquidate long positions.

City-Wise Domestic Gold and Silver Prices on July 3

Gold prices remained elevated across major Indian cities on July 3, trading around ₹1,41,000 per 10 grams nationwide. Delhi and Chennai recorded 24-carat gold at ₹1,40,920 per 10 grams, while Mumbai, Kolkata, and Hyderabad registered ₹1,40,770. For 22-carat gold, Delhi and Chennai priced at ₹1,29,190, while Mumbai, Kolkata, and Hyderabad quoted ₹1,29,040 per 10 grams.

Silver prices showed more variation, with Hyderabad recording the highest at ₹2,609 per 10 grams (₹2,60,900 per kg), followed by Chennai at ₹2,581 (₹2,58,100 per kg) and Delhi at ₹2,561 (₹2,56,100 per kg). The substantial variation in silver prices across cities reflects differences in local demand, transportation costs, and state-level taxation structures.

According to the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, the morning rate for 24-carat gold was set at ₹1,43,340 per 10 grams, with evening rates at ₹1,43,003. The price difference between Indian and Dubai gold stood at ₹15,330, or 11.58%, for 24K gold, indicating that domestic prices remained at a significant premium to international benchmarks after accounting for import duties and taxes.

Market participants should monitor the Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes scheduled for July 8, which will be scrutinised for indications of how divided officials are on the rate hike debate flagged in June’s dot plot. Upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials will be closely watched for further direction in bullion prices. Consumers planning to purchase gold jewellery or silver articles are advised to check the latest city-wise rates before buying, as bullion prices are revised frequently in line with international trends.

Source

• https://silverprice.org/silver-price-india.html

• https://goldprice.org/gold-price-india.html