We‌eken‌‌d Bullion Wrap: Gold Falls Bel‌‌ow $4,000/oz, Silver Slide‌‌s 45% from 2026 Pe‌‌a‌‌k Amid Hawkish Fed Signal‌‌s

Mumbai, June 27: The precious metals market faced one of the most turbulent trading weeks, as gold surged above the psychological $4,000 per ounce level for the first time since November 2025 while silver fell to below $60 per ounce amid a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve and a rebounding US dollar.

However, the sell-off, referred to as a “perfect storm,” has wiped nearly 29% from gold’s value since its record high in January 2026 above $5,000 per ounce, while silver has fallen more than 45% from its 2026 peak.

Gold Brea‌ches Below $4,000/oz Support Level; Silver Slumps Over 5% in Single Session on June 24

Wednesday, 24^th June was marked as the most crucial session of the week as spot gold fell below $4,000 per ounce for the first time in seven months to hit an intraday low of $3,987. The breakdown in price triggered automatic sell orders and algo trading, thereby accelerating the bearish momentum. Silver crashed by over 5% on Wednesday to fall below $60 per ounce for the first time since December 2025.

The crucial breakdown after Feder‌‌al Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s stern statement: “We have missed our inflation target for five consecutive years, and we are going to fix that.” Markets interpreted this statement as an indication of the Fed’s unequivocal commitment to raise rates further, overshadowing even Middle East supply concerns that previously had supported safe-haven demand.

Also Read: How to Invest in Gold ETFs – A Beginner’s Step-by-Step Guide (2026)

WTI Crude Oil tumbled below $70 per barrel, erasing all gains accumulated during the recent US-Iran tensions, while Bitcoin also crashed, highlighting a broad risk-off deleveraging across asset classes. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged to a 13-month high of approximately 106.0, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for foreign buyers and directly pressuring prices.

COMEX Gold Settles at $4,002.80/oz as Silver Closes at $55.77 on June 26

By Friday’s final settlement, COMEX Gold for August delivery closed at $4,002.80 per ounce, down $44.80 (-1.11%) for the day, with an intraday low of $4,001.20. COMEX Silver for July delivery suffered a steeper daily loss of 4.44%, settling at $55.77 per ounce, reflecting silver’s higher beta to market volatility.

Spot gold closed at $3,991.49 (-0.9%), while spot silver ended at $56.01 (-3.2%). However, a dramatic late-session reversal occurred on Friday following the release of US May PCE inflation data. The monthly PCE rose less than expected, while core PCE met forecasts, slightly easing inflation fears. This prompted a pullback in the US dollar from its 13-month high, allowing gold and silver to stage a short-covering rally, with spot gold turning positive to $4,032.18 and spot silver erasing all intraday losses, rising 0.93% to $58.148.

Gold remained on track for its fourth consecutive weekly loss, declining more than 3% over the week, while silver was headed for a weekly decline of nearly 11%, significantly underperforming gold.

MCX Gold Falls ₹15,000 Per 10 Grams in June as Silver Sheds ₹45,000 Per kg

The Indian bullion market mirrored the global sell-off, with domestic prices experiencing significant erosion over the month. MCX Gold fell by ₹15,000 per 10 grams (-9.73%) between 1 June and 26 June, while MCX Silver dropped nearly ₹45,000 per kilogram (-17%) over the same period.

Thursday, 25 June, witnessed extraordinary volatility on the MCX. Gold futures (August contract) opened at ₹140,672 per 10 grams, down ₹598 from the previous close of ₹141,270. The contract hit a low of ₹140,543 but rallied to a high of ₹142,548. By 5:20 PM IST, it was at ₹141,789, up ₹519 (+0.37%) on the day, with volume of 10,375 lots.

Silver futures (July contract) opened at ₹210,308 per kilogram, down ₹2,767 from ₹213,075. The intraday range was enormous – from a low of ₹210,043 to a high of ₹219,401 – a swing of over ₹9,000. By 5:20 PM IST, it settled at ₹216,368, up ₹3,293 (+1.55%).

On Friday, 26 June, MCX Gold (August) closed at ₹141,675, up ₹405 (+0.29%). 24K Gold spot in India opened lower by ₹10 at ₹141,320 per 10 grams, while 22K Gold spot traded at ₹129,540 per 10 grams. Silver spot declined ₹100 to ₹2,34,900 per kilogram.

Delhi Physical Gold Sinks ₹2,800, Silver Hits 6-Month Low at ₹226,000/kg

The physical bullion market in Delhi witnessed sharp declines on 25 June, with 99.9% purity gold falling by ₹2,800 to ₹1,45,300 per 10 grams (including GST). Silver dropped ₹5,000 to ₹2,26,000 per kilogram, hitting a six-month low.

The India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) reference prices for 25 June (ex-GST) stood at ₹1,39,873 per 10 grams for gold and ₹2,16,541 per kilogram for silver, representing the wholesale benchmark against which retail city prices include dealer margins and local taxes.

City-wise spot prices on 26 June showed 24-carat gold at ₹1,41,470 in Delhi, ₹1,41,320 in Mumbai and Kolkata, and ₹1,43,340 in Chennai. Silver traded at ₹2,34,900 per kilogram in Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata, while Chennai recorded ₹2,29,900.

Fed Dot Plot Erases 2026 Rate Cut Hopes, Markets Price Three Additional Hikes

The June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting kept rates at 3.75%, but the dot plot erased nearly all 2026 rate-cut expectations, with half of the officials now seeing at least one more hike. Chair Warsh’s comments reinforced this hawkish stance. Fed speakers, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams, all stressed that inflation remains well above the 2% target. CME FedWatch now prices in three rate hikes in 2026, with the September hike probability surging. Higher real yields crush non-yielding assets like gold, as the opportunity cost of holding bullion increases relative to interest-bearing instruments.

Dollar Strength and Geopolitical Flux Create Mixed Signals for Safe-Haven Demand

The US Dollar Index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, rising 1.4% to approximately 106.0, a 13-month high. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for foreign buyers, directly pressuring prices.

Geopolitical developments presented a mixed bag. Initial US-Iran ceasefire hopes boosted risk appetite, but the lack of progress on nuclear issues and the UN International Maritime Organisation suspending Strait of Hormuz escorts after an attack on a vessel revived supply fears. Meanwhile, Israel-Lebanon border tensions added uncertainty. However, these factors failed to support safe-haven buying because the dominant narrative remained Federal Reserve tightening.

PCE Data Offers Temporary Relief as Inflation Breaches 4% for First Time in Three Years

US May headline inflation broke 4% for the first time in three years due to energy costs linked to West Asia tensions. However, the monthly PCE came in below expectations, while core PCE matched forecasts, offering temporary relief to gold and silver markets late on Friday.

The collapse in oil prices, with WTI trading below $70 per barrel, eased input cost pressures. However, Brent crude climbed back above $75 per barrel and WTI rose above $71 on Friday after the UN suspended vessel evacuation plans following an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher oil prices can fuel inflation, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Carry Trade Unwind Triggers Forced Liquidation of Gold and Silver Positions

The unwinding of yen carry trades, combined with steep losses in US technology stocks, forced leveraged investors to liquidate gold and silver positions to cover margin calls. This created a vicious cycle of selling, exacerbating the downside momentum.

Technical breaks below $4,000 in gold and $60 in silver triggered automatic stop-loss orders and algorithmic selling, accelerating the decline. The broader precious metals index underperformed global equities significantly, highlighting the extent of the rotation out of bullion.

China Demand Weakens as Net Gold Imports Plunge 38% in May

Chinese demand, a crucial pillar of global gold consumption, showed signs of weakness. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong fell nearly 38% in May, signalling soft physical demand from the world’s largest consumer. Major Chinese banks restricted retail precious metals trading – halting new accounts, cancelling some services, and raising margin requirements. This demand-side weakness added to the bearish sentiment, as expectations of robust Chinese buying had previously supported prices.

Platinum and Palladium End Week in Red as PGMs Follow Precious Metals Sell-Off

The broader precious metals complex suffered across the board. Platinum spot fell 2.4% to $1,563.20 per ounce, while palladium spot dropped 1.6% to $1,165.93 per ounce. All platinum group metals ended the week in negative territory, reflecting the broad-based selling pressure affecting the entire complex.

Saxo Bank Warns ETF Outflows and Dollar Strength Key Headwinds for Gold

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that gold is down 8.4% year-to-date but remains 18.5% higher over 12 months, while silver is down 19% year-to-date but up 56% over 12 months. Hansen highlighted that ETF outflows and dollar strength are key headwinds, though speculative positioning is now significantly reduced, which may limit further downside.

Deutsche Bank offered a more cautious outlook, warning that if the market prices in three to four additional rate hikes, gold could fall to $3,800 per ounce. However, the bank noted that central bank buying – a record $38.9 billion in Q1 2026 – and US fiscal fragility provide a structural floor.

Prithviraj Kothari of RiddiSiddhi Bullions projected that after breaking $4,000, gold could test $3,600 in the near term, with silver, having lost $60, potentially probing the $50 region.

Carsten Menke of Julius Baer stated that the Fed’s inflation concern is far more intense than previously thought, and precious metals are facing a “harsh reality” check.

Central Bank Buying and Silver Deficit Offer Long-Term Structural Support

Despite the brutal sell-off, several underlying bullish drivers remain intact. Central bank buying reached a record $38.9 billion in official gold purchases in Q1 2026, led by emerging market central banks diversifying away from US Treasuries. The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, with the gap widening by 15% to 46.3 million ounces (~1,440 tonnes), driven by industrial demand, particularly from AI data centres requiring silver-based contacts and conductive materials.

US public debt is growing at approximately 8% per year, well above the Congressional Budget Office’s 6% long-term forecast, raising long-term inflation and currency debasement concerns. Mine supply constraints persist, with new projects scarce and production growth remaining stagnant.

The week’s price action underscores the dominance of Federal Reserve policy over traditional safe-haven demand. Key support levels to monitor include $3,850 for gold and $54 for silver, while resistance is seen at $4,100 and $60, respectively. Central bank buying and the structural silver deficit may provide longer-term support, but near-term direction hinges on Fed speakers and US payrolls data. ETF flow trends and geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain critical variables for price discovery.

Source

• https://silverprice.org/silver-price-india.html

• https://goldprice.org/gold-price-india.html