HSL Prime Research Commodity Weekly Report: 27 July 2026

Global Market Round Up

Precious metals ended the week on a positive note despite facing significant macroeconomic headwinds. Although the market grappled with surging crude oil prices, rising inflation expectations, a stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields, and increasing expectations of tighter U.S. monetary policy, both gold and silver managed to post weekly gains, reflecting resilient investor demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Both gold and silver recorded their first weekly gains after two consecutive weeks of losses. The recovery was largely driven by value buying following the recent correction, while sentiment also improved after fresh evidence of China’s continued commitment to gold accumulation. According to Bloomberg and Chinese customs data, China imported approximately 173 tonnes of gold in June, the highest monthly volume since March 2024 and the third consecutive monthly increase, highlighting resilient physical demand from one of the world’s largest gold consumers.

Looking ahead, market attention will shift to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and, more importantly, the Fed’s forward guidance. A hawkish policy outlook could reinforce higher interest-rate expectations, triggering renewed selling and another round of correction in precious metals. Conversely, if the Fed adopts a more balanced tone and eases concerns over further policy tightening, the recent recovery in gold and silver could extend in the near term.

Energy markets posted strong weekly gains, with WTI crude oil rising 9.21% and Brent crude advancing nearly 11%, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Brent crude oil climbed to their highest levels since 25 May 2026 during the week, although prices retreated from their highs on Friday amid profit-taking after Pakistan signaled its willingness to resume peace talks. The near-term outlook for crude oil will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. While improving prospects for a ceasefire may encourage profit-taking after the recent rally, any deterioration in the geopolitical situation could tighten supply expectations and extend the upward momentum in oil prices.

Natural gas is expected to remain under pressure in the near term as ample supply continues to outweigh demand. U.S. gas inventories stood 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average as of July 17, while dry gas production in the Lower 48 states increased to an average of 110.4 bcfd in July from 110.0 bcfd in June.