India VIX Falls 4.02% to 13.38 as RBI Signals, Easing Oil Prices and Equity Rally Calm Volatility

Mumbai, June 24: India VIX declined during Wednesday’s closing session, reversing a sharp surge recorded a day earlier, as improving domestic cues and easing global concerns helped moderate volatility expectations. India’s volatility gauge settled at 13.38, down 0.56 points or 4.02%, after touching an intraday high of 14.30 and a low of 13.29.

The index had opened at 13.94, unchanged from its previous close of 13.94 on 23 June, before gradually moving lower through the session alongside a strong recovery in domestic equities.

India VIX Drops 4.02% As Markets Recover

India VIX, often tracked as an indicator of expected near-term market fluctuations, witnessed a steady decline after remaining elevated during early trade. The index traded near 14 during the morning session amid weekly derivatives expiry-related adjustments and uncertainty in overseas markets before cooling in the second half of the day.

By the closing session, volatility expectations had eased considerably, with India VIX ending at 13.38, remaining well above its 52-week low of 8.72 but substantially below the 52-week high of 28.90. The index has delivered a 41.14% year-to-date return and continued to trade within a relatively moderate range compared with historical peaks.

Technical indicators reflected a neutral trend, while pivot levels placed immediate resistance at 14.64 and support at 12.83 under the classical calculation method.

Tuesday’s 8.55% Surge Set Stage for Volatile Start

Wednesday’s decline followed a sharp rise in India VIX during the previous session. On 23 June 2026, the index had advanced 1.10 points or 8.55%, closing at 13.94 from 12.84 recorded on 22 June, marking its biggest single-day gain in nearly two weeks.

The spike in volatility coincided with weakness in global technology stocks and broader risk aversion across international markets. Major US indices ended lower overnight, with the S&P 500 declining 1.44% to 7,365.46, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.21% to 25,587.04 as semiconductor shares witnessed selling pressure amid concerns over debt-funded artificial intelligence spending and expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment in the United States.

Regional sentiment also remained fragile after South Korea’s Kospi index plunged nearly 10% in the previous session. Additional uncertainty surrounding the proposed United States-Iran ceasefire and disruptions to tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz further contributed to elevated volatility expectations.

RBI Comments and Lower Oil Prices Ease Pressure

Domestic developments provided support to markets and helped reduce volatility levels during Wednesday’s trade.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that discussions around monetary tightening were premature and noted that inflationary pressures had not broadened across the economy. He also indicated that if the central bank intended to prepare markets for rate increases, its policy stance would have shifted from neutral to restrictive.

Crude oil prices also retreated, alleviating concerns over imported inflation. Brent crude traded below $77 per barrel at $76.73, while West Texas Intermediate crude slipped to $72.86 per barrel. Oil prices remained under pressure amid reports that more vessels stranded in the Gulf region could resume movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

The moderation in oil prices coincided with a recovery in overseas markets. South Korea’s Kospi index rebounded nearly 3%, while Asian equities stabilised following the previous session’s broad-based sell-off.

Sensex Gains 870 Points as Volatility Cools

The easing in India VIX occurred alongside a sharp rebound in Indian benchmark indices.

The Sensex climbed more than 700 points to 76,991.22, while the Nifty 50 reclaimed the 24,000 mark, advancing by 197.55 points. The recovery lifted the combined market capitalisation of companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange to nearly ₹477 lakh crore, adding more than ₹2 lakh crore in value.

Banking and information technology stocks led gains. The Nifty IT index rose 2.05% to 27,566.70. Among major gainers, Trent advanced 5.13%, InterGlobe Aviation gained 3.54%, Tech Mahindra rose 3.10%, and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories added 2.80%.

On the downside, Bajaj Auto declined 2.09% after reporting a ransomware attack affecting its systems and those of its subsidiary, Bajaj Auto Technology. SBI Life Insurance fell 1.56%, while Maruti Suzuki dropped 1.13%.

Trade Deal Talks and FII Flows Add Support

Sentiment also drew support from progress in discussions related to a proposed India-United States trade arrangement.

US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Bethany Poulos Morrison said both countries were “very, very close” to finalising a bilateral trade agreement. The development came ahead of reciprocal tariff discussions scheduled before the July deadline. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal also met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer as negotiations continued.

Foreign institutional activity remained positive. Foreign Portfolio Investors recorded net purchases worth ₹17.86 crore on Tuesday, while Domestic Institutional Investors bought shares worth ₹680 crore.

Meanwhile, GIFT Nifty traded 57 points higher at 23,867.50, indicating a favourable opening bias. Analysts noted that the Nifty found support at a rising trendline formed on the hourly chart, aiding the broader recovery.

Derivatives Positioning Keeps 24,000 in Focus

Derivatives data suggested that the 24,000 level remained an important reference point for traders.

Nifty futures for 30 June 2026 traded at 24,020, reflecting a premium of 15 points over the spot level of 24,005.

Open interest concentration remained highest at the 24,000 strike price, with 143.2 lakh call contracts and 152.6 lakh put contracts, highlighting continued activity around the key level.

Seasonality data showed that India VIX has generated negative returns in 11 out of 18 years during June. The month has historically delivered an average decline of 7.40%, with the steepest fall of 43.90% recorded in 2024 and the strongest gain of 9.45% seen in 2011.

India VIX ended the session at 13.38, reversing part of the previous day’s sharp rise as supportive domestic developments, softer crude oil prices and recovering equity benchmarks moderated volatility expectations. Despite remaining above its annual low, the index stayed well below levels typically associated with heightened uncertainty, indicating comparatively stable conditions at the close of trade.

Source

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix