India VIX Falls 2.2% as Crude, Rupee and Global Risks Shape Trading Session

Mumbai, Sept 29: India VIX ended the 29 September session at 13.34, down 0.30 points or 2.2%, after moving between 13.21 and 14.77. The volatility index opened at 13.63, against the previous close of 13.64, as Indian equities remained under pressure from crude oil prices, elevated US Treasury yields, rupee weakness, foreign outflows and geopolitical uncertainty. 

India VIX Ends at 13.34 After Touching 14.77 During Trading 

India VIX moved sharply during Tuesday’s session before easing towards the close. The index recorded an intraday high of 14.77 and a low of 13.21, before ending at 13.34. Its previous close was 13.64, while the opening level was 13.63. The index’s 52-week range stood at 8.72-28.90, while its year-to-date return was 40.51%. 

The session’s movement came as the Nifty 50 remained below the 22,700 level, with market-wide selling coinciding with higher crude prices, a weaker rupee and elevated US bond yields. The late-session decline in India VIX meant the index finished below its previous close despite the wide intraday range. 

Crude Near $107 Raises Multiple Risks for Indian Markets 

Brent crude moved to around $107-$107.40 a barrel during Tuesday’s session, with prices rising by roughly 2% as uncertainty surrounding Middle East energy supplies continued. The movement followed ongoing developments involving the US and Iran, while concerns remained around the availability of crude passing through the Strait of Hormuz. 

For India, the rise in crude was accompanied by concerns over the import bill, trade deficit, inflation, the rupee and corporate margins. The combination of higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty was also reflected in weakness across Indian equities during the session.  

US-Iran Uncertainty Keeps Oil Supply Risks In Focus 

US-Iran developments remained an important global factor during the session. US President Donald Trump confirmed that US negotiators had communicated with Iranian officials through intermediaries, while Iran maintained that it did not intend to negotiate directly with Washington and sought guarantees before talks. 

The Strait of Hormuz remained central to the oil-supply concerns. Oil exports through the waterway had recovered but were still reported to be around half of pre-war levels, leaving the market exposed to further supply-related uncertainty. 

US 10-Year Yield Above 5.27% Adds Pressure To Risk Assets 

US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year yield moving above 5.27%, its highest level in about 19 years, while the two-year yield remained around the 5% level. Market expectations of persistent inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates kept US bond yields under pressure. 

The rise in US yields occurred alongside a stronger dollar, adding pressure to emerging-market currencies. For India, this global backdrop coincided with higher crude prices and domestic equity weakness, creating several simultaneous pressures during Tuesday’s trading session. 

Rupee Falls Below ₹96 as Oil and Dollar Strengthen 

The Indian rupee breached the ₹96 per US dollar mark during Tuesday’s session and touched approximately ₹96.1475 before recovering part of the decline. Higher crude prices and a stronger US dollar contributed to the move, while the Reserve Bank of India was reported to have intervened to slow the rupee’s decline.  

Foreign portfolio flows also remained relevant. Foreign investors had withdrawn approximately $3.7 billion from Indian markets during September, with year-to-date outflows reported at around $19.6 billion. Monday’s data had shown foreign institutional investors selling approximately ₹5,353 crore, while domestic institutional investors bought around ₹5,189 crore. 

Nifty Near 22,600 Extends Pressure Across Major Sectors 

The Nifty 50 moved towards the 22,600 area during Tuesday’s session, with reports placing its intraday low around 22,569.65-22,606. The Sensex also moved lower towards approximately 72,180, while 14 of 16 major sectors were reported to be trading lower. 

Weakness extended across banks, financials, information technology, automobiles, metals, energy and broader mid- and small-cap stocks. HDFC Bank declined about 1.6%, while ICICI Bank fell around 1%, adding to pressure from financial stocks. 

The broad-based nature of the market decline coincided with the wide movement in India VIX during the session, although the volatility index ultimately closed lower at 13.34. 

September F&O Expiry Adds to Tuesday’s Intraday Swings 

The 29 September session also coincided with the September monthly futures and options expiry. Trading therefore took place amid expiry-related position adjustments and sharp movements in the Nifty around important market levels. 

The expiry did not by itself determine the direction of India VIX. However, it formed part of the day’s trading backdrop alongside the Nifty decline, crude movement, currency weakness and global bond-market pressure. 

Tata Sons Restructuring Adds Stock-Specific Pressure 

A separate domestic development involved Tata Sons, after Tata Trusts proposed a strategic reorganisation involving the merger of Tata Electronics Systems Solutions and Tata Consulting Engineers with Tata Sons. The proposal is intended to change the holding company’s regulatory classification and requires consideration by the Tata Sons board and approval from the Reserve Bank of India.  

Tata group stocks including Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Tata Investment Corporation, Tata Chemicals and Tata Consultancy Services came under pressure during the session. Reuters reported declines of around 2% in Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles and 2.1% in Tata Investment Corporation, while Tata Chemicals fell about 3.1%.  

Pharma Gains Provide a Partial Offset to Market Weakness 

The pharmaceutical sector provided a counterpoint to the broader market decline after US authorities exempted certain Indian specialty drugs from tariffs. Dr Reddy’s Laboratories gained more than 2%, while Mankind Pharma rose more than 3% during midday trading. 

The gains in pharmaceutical stocks provided a partial offset to weakness elsewhere, although the wider market remained affected by the combination of crude prices, global yields, currency movements and geopolitical developments. 

India VIX Holds 13.34 Despite a 14.77 Intraday Peak 

The day’s India VIX movement therefore reflected a wide intraday range rather than a sustained rise through the close. The index moved from 13.21 to 14.77, while the final reading of 13.34 was below both the intraday peak and the previous close of 13.64. 

Its technical levels for the session placed the classic pivot at 13.31, with resistance at 14.47, 15.29 and 16.45, and support at 12.49, 11.33 and 10.51. The technical rating was Neutral. 

India VIX September History Shows Mixed Monthly Performance 

Historical seasonality data shows that India VIX has delivered positive returns in 9 of 18 years during September. The maximum positive September change was 34.92% in 2018, while the average positive change was 19.04%. The maximum negative change was -26.10% in 2009, with the average negative change at -9.93%. The overall average September change was 4.55%. 

India VIX closed the 29 September 2026 session at 13.34, down 2.2%, after touching 14.77 intraday. The session was marked by crude near $107, US 10-year yields above 5.27%, the rupee below ₹96 and the Nifty near 22,600, alongside geopolitical and expiry-related developments. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix