India VIX Opens 4.39% Lower at 13.73, Returns to Pre-War Leve‌‌ls as US-Iran Peace De‌‌a‌l Eases Volatility

Mumbai, June 16: India VIX commenced Tuesday’s trading session on a lower note, falling by 4.39% to end at 13.73 from 14.35 seen at close of the previous session, amid ease of geopolitical concerns affecting volatility expectations in the markets. The volatility index touch‌‌ed a lo‌‌w of 13.01 after opening at 14.35, extending its decline from its recent high‌‌s and b‌ring‌ing it back to levels seen prior to the escalation in the US-Iran conflict earlier this year.  

However, the latest fall comes after India VIX declined 2.50% in the previous session from 14.72 to 14.35, suggesting a sustained decline in volatility over consecutive trading sessions. 

India VIX 13.73 Matches Pre-War Level as Volatility Continues to Ease 

India VIX, which is commonly referred to as the fear indicator of the Indian equity market, has now reverted back to levels seen prior to the beginning of hostilities between the US and Iran. India VIX closed at about 14.00 on February 27, 2026, before hostilities commenced, and the index was at around 13.73 in the early trading session on June 16. 

The decline represents an evident moderation in volatility expectations as compared to the higher readings registered during March and early April. The current level also places India VIX below the 14 to 16 range that prevailed for much of June, marking a nota‌‌bl‌‌e shift from recent volatility trends. 

Nearly 50% Fall from 28.90 Peak Highlights Sharp Three-Month Correction 

India VIX reached its 52-week high of 28.90 on 30 March 2026, as geopolitical uncertainty and global market concerns intensified. Since then, the index has undergone a broad-based correction, losing nearly half of its value over the past three months. 

Historical data shows that India VIX climbed from 22.80 on 19 March to 26.73 on 23 March, before advancing further to 27.89 on 30 March. However, the upward momentum faded in April as volatility pressures began to ease. The index subsequently moved below 20 and continued its downward trajectory through May and June. 

With the latest opening level of 13.73, India VIX has declined by almost 50% from its March peak, marking one of the most significant corrections in volatility levels during the current financial year. 

Early June Spikes Above 17 Levels Give Way to Sustained Cooling Trend 

Despite the latest decline, India VIX experienced several bouts of volatility during June. The index traded at 17.03 on 8 June, after rising sharply from 15.79 in the previous session. Earlier market stress also pushed volatility readings above the 17-18 range, with higher intraday spikes observed during periods of heightened global uncertainty. 

However, the subsequent sessions witnessed a gradual decline. India VIX fell to 15.58 on 9 June, remained around the 15.6 mark over the next few trading sessions, and then slipped to 14.72 on 12 June before closing at 14.35 on 15 June. 

The latest opening session decline to 13.73 extends this cooling trend and places the volatility index at its lowest level in several months. 

US-Iran Peace Agreement Ends 107-Day Conflict and Reduces Risk Concerns 

The latest movement in India VIX coincides with the reported peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which is expected to bring an end to a 107-day conflict that began on 28 February 2026. 

The conflict had fuelled concerns over regional stability, global trade routes and energy supplies, contributing to heightened volatility across financial markets. As diplomatic developments progressed and prospects of a resolution improved, volatility indicators began moderating across several markets. 

The reported reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy shipping route through which a substantial share of global oil supplies passes, has also contributed to easing concerns surrounding global energy markets. 

Sensex Surges 1,015 Points While Brent Crude Falls 4.55% 

The moderation in volatility occurred alongside strong gains in domestic and global equity markets. During the previous trading session, the Sensex advanced 1,015 points to 76,542, while the Nifty climbed 307 points to 23,930. 

Asian markets also recorded gains, with South Korea’s benchmark index rising nearly 6%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced more than 5%. Markets in China and Hong Kong also traded higher. 

Meanwhile, Brent crude oil prices declined 4.55% to $83.36 per barrel, reducing concerns over energy costs. The Indian rupee strengthened by 58 paise to 94.60 against the US dollar, reflecting the broader impact of softer oil prices and improving global market conditions. 

YTD Gain of 44.73% Shows Volatility Remains Elevated Compared With Last Year 

Despite the recent correction, India VIX remains significantly higher on a year-to-date basis. The index has generated a 44.73% return in 2026 so far, indicating that volatility levels remain elevated compared with the beginning of the year. 

The index also continues to trade well above its 52-week low of 8.72, highlighting the sharp swings that have characterised market sentiment during the past twelve months. 

June Seasonality Shows Negative Returns in 11 of 18 Years 

Historical seasonality data indicates that June has traditionally been a weaker month for India VIX. Over the last 18 years, the volatility gauge has delivered negative returns in 11 years in June. 

The month has recorded an average return of -7.25%, with the largest decline of -43.90% occurring in 2024. The average negative move stands at -15.42%, while the average positive gain is 5.58%. The current month’s performance is tracking within a broader historical trend of softer June readings. 

Neutral Technical Rating Keeps Focus On 13.70 Support Level 

India VIX currently carries a Neutral technical rating. Based on classic pivot calculations, the immediate support level is placed at 13.70, followed by 13.04 and 12.54. Resistance levels are positioned at 14.86, 15.36 and 16.02. 

Fibonacci pivot levels place support at 13.76, 13.49 and 13.04, while resistance is seen at 14.65, 14.92 and 15.36. Camarilla calculations indicate support levels at 14.24, 14.14 and 14.03, with resistance levels at 14.46, 14.56 and 14.67. 

The index remains near its immediate support zone after opening below the previous close, while broader technical indicators and moving average signals remain neutral. 

Current Reading Below 15 Reflects Lower Short-Term Volatility Expectations 

With India VIX trading below the 15 mark, the index is currently positioned within what is generally considered a lower-volatility range for the market. The decline from the elevated levels seen during March and early June reflects a moderation in short-term uncertainty compared with periods when geopolitical developments drove volatility sharply higher. 

 India VIX opened 4.39% lower at 13.73 on 16 June 2026, extending its decline from 14.35 in the previous session and bringing the index back to levels seen before the start of the US-Iran conflict. The volatility gauge is now nearly 50% below its 52-week high of 28.90, while remaining 44.73% higher on a year-to-date basis, reflecting a significant moderation in volatility after recent geopolitical developments. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix