India VIX Rises 5% Volatility Spike as Oil Prices, Geopolitical Risks and Earnings Keep Markets on Edge

Mumbai, July 23: India VIX, the domestic equity market’s volatility index, traded at 13.14, down 0.15 points (-1.13%) at 09:59 IST on 23 July 2026, after witnessing a sharp rise of around 5% to 5.6% in the previous trading session. The index opened at 13.29, touched an intraday high of 13.53 and a low of 12.91, while remaining well above the levels seen earlier this month.  

The latest move comes as market participants continue to assess geopolitical developments, elevated crude oil prices, foreign institutional investor (FII) selling and the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, all of which have contributed to increased short-term market volatility. 

India VIX Holds Above 13 As Yesterday’s 5% Rise Carries into Today’s Opening 

India VIX remained in the 13-14 range during Thursday’s opening session after recording a gain of around 5% to 5.6% in the previous trading day. While some reports placed the previous session’s closing level at 13.29, others reported it at 13.49, reflecting a rise ranging from 1.46% to 5.6% depending on the calculation period.  

As of 09:59 IST, the volatility index was trading at 13.14, compared with the previous close of 13.29. During the session, it moved between 12.91 and 13.53, while its 52-week range stood between 8.72 and 28.90. On a year-to-date basis, India VIX has delivered returns of 39.45%, although its technical trend continues to be classified as Neutral. 

Oil Above $95 And West Asia Tensions Lift Volatility Expectations 

The recent rise in India VIX has been linked to multiple global developments that have increased uncertainty across financial markets. Escalating geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran, along with Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, have raised concerns over broader regional instability.  

At the same time, Brent crude oil climbed above $95 per barrel, marking a five-week high. As India remains one of the world’s largest crude oil importers, higher energy prices have added to inflation-related concerns and broader macroeconomic uncertainty.  

Alongside these developments, the ongoing Q1 FY27 corporate earnings season has kept traders focused on company-specific announcements, further contributing to heightened market volatility. 

Weak Market Setup and FII Selling Add to Cautious Trading 

Market indicators ahead of Thursday’s session pointed towards a subdued opening. GIFT Nifty signalled a weaker start, while several market previews noted that benchmark indices had already closed below important technical support levels in the previous session. India VIX moved higher alongside Wednesday’s decline in equities, reflecting increased hedging activity during the market sell-off.  

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers, offloading shares worth ₹819 crore on Wednesday, adding to the pressure across domestic equities. Meanwhile, the Indian rupee weakened to a two-month low against the US dollar as rising crude oil prices continued to weigh on the currency. Together, these developments have kept volatility elevated during the opening session. 

Nifty Slips Below 24,000 As Technical Signals Weaken 

The increase in India VIX coincided with weakness across the broader equity market. The Nifty 50 declined by around 0.8%, closing below the 24,000 mark during the previous trading session. Technical indicators also reflected softer market momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registering a bearish crossover. Alongside benchmark weakness, the Nifty Pharma index came under pressure following the announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding a phased tariff plan on imported generic medicines. The combination of sector-specific developments, global uncertainty and elevated volatility contributed to wider market fluctuations heading into Thursday’s session. 

July Trend Mirrors Seasonal Weakness Despite Strong YTD Gains 

Historical data continues to show that July has generally been a challenging month for India VIX. Over the past 18 years, the volatility index has delivered negative returns in 15 years during July. The highest positive July gain stands at 7.39% recorded in 2011, while the steepest decline was 24.22% in 2022. Average positive July returns are 4.47%, whereas average negative returns stand at 10.82%, resulting in an overall average monthly change of -8.27%. Despite this seasonal pattern, India VIX has recorded a 39.45% year-to-date gain in 2026, highlighting the sharp swings experienced during the year. 

Recent Volatility Swings Reflect Changing Market Conditions 

India VIX has witnessed significant fluctuations over the past several weeks. On 19 June 2026, the index surged nearly 8% after sharp declines in the Nifty and Sensex, driven by selling in heavyweight stocks, weakness in information technology shares and broader market pressure. Earlier in July 2026, India VIX fell below 12 for the first time since February 2026 as geopolitical concerns eased and domestic markets stabilised. Following the June futures and options (F&O) expiry on 1 July 2026, the volatility index traded within a relatively narrow 13.4-14.1 range, indicating comparatively subdued market volatility before the latest rise pushed it back above 13. 

Technical Levels Highlight Key Trading Range 

Technical indicators currently continue to assign India VIX a Neutral trend rating. Based on the previous trading session, the Classic Pivot Point stands at 12.81, with resistance levels placed at 13.90, 14.51 and 15.60, while support levels are positioned at 12.20, 11.11 and 10.50. Fibonacci and Camarilla pivot calculations also indicate a similar trading range centred around the current price levels. These technical reference points are calculated using the previous session’s trading range and serve as daily support and resistance levels for market participants monitoring volatility movements. 

India VIX remained above 13 during the opening session after a sharp rise in the previous trading day, with geopolitical developments, elevated crude oil prices, FII selling and the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season remaining the key factors highlighted across market reports. The index continues to be monitored as an indicator of short-term market volatility amid evolving domestic and global developments. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix