India VIX Rises 9.28% to 13.43 as Oil and US Yields Lift Volatility

Mumbai, Sept 15: India VIX rose 1.14 points, or 9.28%, to 13.43 on Tuesday, compared with the previous close of 12.29. The volatility gauge opened at 12.28 and moved between 11.92 and 13.58 during the session. The rise came as elevated crude oil prices, US Treasury yields above 5%, geopolitical concerns and pressure in Indian equities added to market uncertainty. 

India VIX Hits 13.58 as Market Volatility Increases 

India VIX, which measures expected volatility in the Nifty 50, ended at 13.43, up from 12.29 in the previous session. The index touched an intraday high of 13.58 and a low of 11.92, showing a wide movement during Tuesday’s trading session. Its 52-week range stands at 8.72-28.90. The latest rise indicates higher near-term uncertainty around Nifty 50 movements, although the index remained well below its 52-week high. 

The movement also came against a mixed equity-market backdrop. Indian shares initially showed strength but struggled to retain their early gains as the session progressed. The Nifty 50 slipped to around 23,391.3, while the Sensex was around 74,799.16 during the reported session. Small- and mid-cap indices also declined, adding to the uneven market trend. 

Crude Above $107 Adds Pressure to India VIX 

Brent crude remained above $107 a barrel during Tuesday’s session, with reports placing prices around $106.98 and another reported intraday level near $108.4 after crude gained more than 2%. The elevated oil prices were linked to geopolitical developments involving Saudi oil infrastructure and wider tensions in the Middle East. 

The movement in crude remained important for Indian markets because India imports a significant amount of its oil requirements. Higher crude prices can affect import costs, inflation concerns, the rupee and corporate margins. The combination of elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty added to the factors surrounding Tuesday’s rise in India VIX. 

US 10-Year Yield Crosses 5% as Equities Face Pressure 

The US 10-year Treasury yield moved above 5% during the session, adding another source of pressure to global financial markets. Higher US yields can influence the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets and affect valuations across equity markets. 

For Indian equities, the move added to concerns around global interest rates, overseas fund flows and valuations. The rise in the US 10-year yield occurred alongside weakness in Indian equities, creating a broader risk-off backdrop during the session. The combination contributed to the higher volatility recorded by India VIX. 

Fed Meeting Nears as Rate Uncertainty Keeps Markets Uneasy 

Markets were also positioned ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting, making interest-rate expectations an important consideration during the Indian trading session. The rise in US Treasury yields and uncertainty around future monetary policy added to the factors affecting global markets. 

The Federal Reserve meeting was a forward-looking event risk during India’s session and not a rate decision announced during Tuesday’s Indian market hours. Its relevance to India VIX came from uncertainty around the potential effect of US monetary policy on Treasury yields, the dollar, overseas flows and equity valuations. 

FII Selling Reaches ₹930.90 Crore Despite DII Buying 

Foreign institutional investors sold Indian equities worth ₹930.90 crore during the session, while domestic institutional investors purchased shares worth ₹1,968.17 crore. The contrasting flows created a mixed domestic liquidity picture. 

The domestic institutional purchases provided support, while foreign selling added to the uncertainty surrounding market flows. However, the FII selling figure by itself does not establish a direct cause for the India VIX increase. Its relevance came alongside the broader movement in equities, crude prices, bond yields and global risk conditions. 

IT Stocks Gain 3.4% While Broader Market Remains Uneven 

The information technology sector provided support during the session, with the sector gaining 3.4%. TCS and Infosys rose around 5% each, while a weaker rupee supported the earnings outlook for IT exporters. Positive sentiment around regulated artificial intelligence development also supported the sector. 

The strength in IT stocks contrasted with pressure across other parts of the market, including financials, infrastructure and broader-market shares. This divergence contributed to an uneven trading environment even as some large-cap stocks advanced. HDFC Bank also recorded gains during the session, but the broader market remained under pressure. 

Geopolitical Risk Keeps Oil and Volatility Elevated 

Geopolitical developments involving Saudi oil infrastructure and Houthi attacks remained an important global factor during Tuesday’s session. The developments raised concerns about potential disruption to oil supplies and contributed to elevated crude prices. 

The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and higher oil prices added pressure to the wider market environment. For Indian equities, the developments remained relevant because a prolonged oil-price shock could affect inflation expectations, external balances, the rupee and operating costs. These concerns formed part of the backdrop against which India VIX moved higher. 

SEBI Derivatives Proposal Targets Expiry-Day Volatility 

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) also proposed changes to the derivatives settlement process on Tuesday. The proposal addresses volatility concerns associated with the recently introduced closing auction session. 

The alternatives include combining the final 30 minutes of regular trading with the 10-minute closing auction for settlement pricing, or temporarily returning to the final 30 minutes of regular trading. Other proposals include limiting order cancellations outside a 1% price range, reducing the post-auction derivatives trading window from 10 minutes to 5 minutes, and stopping publication of estimated index closing levels during auctions. 

Public feedback is open until 3 October, with implementation expected around October or November 2026. The proposal was a market-structure development rather than a confirmed cause of Tuesday’s India VIX closing move. 

Tata Sons Developments Lift Two Tata Stocks 

Tata Chemicals and Tata Investment Corporation also recorded sharp gains after reports that the central bank rejected Tata Sons’ move to deregister as a non-bank lender. The development increased expectations surrounding a potential listing of Tata Sons and affected the two companies. 

However, the movement was largely specific to the companies involved and did not emerge as a broad market volatility driver during Tuesday’s session. 

India VIX September History Shows Mixed Volatility 

Historical data shows that India VIX has delivered positive returns in 9 of 18 years during September. The maximum positive change for the month was 34.92% in 2018, while the average positive change was 19.13%. The maximum negative change was -26.10% in 2009, with an average negative change of -9.93%. The average September change stands at 4.60%. 

The historical figures provide context for September volatility but do not establish a reason for Tuesday’s movement. The current 13.43 reading also remains below the index’s 52-week high of 28.90. 

India VIX Rises as Oil, Yields and Equities Shift 

The rise in India VIX to 13.43 followed a combination of elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical developments, the US 10-year Treasury yield crossing 5%, uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and weakness in Indian equities. These developments occurred alongside FII selling of ₹930.90 crore, although domestic institutions bought ₹1,968.17 crore. The session also saw strong IT gains, creating a mixed market picture. 

India VIX closed at 13.43, up 9.28%, after moving between 11.92 and 13.58. Tuesday’s session was marked by elevated crude prices, US Treasury yields above 5%, geopolitical developments and uneven Indian equity performance. The proposed SEBI derivatives changes remain a separate market-structure development pending consultation and implementation. 

Source 

• https://www.nseindia.com/reports-indices-historical-vix