Key Events Around the Globe: March 18

Japan Trade Balance Grows in Feb As Exports Rise More Than Expected

Japan logged an unexpected trade surplus in February, aided chiefly by strong exports as demand outside the U.S. and China remained largely strong. Japan posted a trade balance of 57.3 billion yen ($360 million) against expectations for a deficit of 485 billion yen, Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday. The country also logged a surplus after a 1.16 trillion yen deficit in the prior month. February’s surplus was driven chiefly by strong exports, which grew 4.2% year-on year against expectations for a 1.6% rise.

Us Gasoline Prices Soar Past $3.75 a Gallon As Middle East War Rages On

The U.S. national average price for gasoline surpassed $3.75 a gallon for the first time since October 2023 on Tuesday, GasBuddy data showed, as global fuel markets continue to reel under supply disruptions caused by the Middle East war. Surging pump prices are set to pinch consumers’ wallets and have soured voters on U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in attacking Iran ahead of November’s midterm elections that will decide control of Congress

US Crude Oil Inventories Surge, Surpassing Forecasts and Previous Levels

The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently released its latest figures on U.S. crude oil inventories, revealing a significant increase in stock levels. The latest data shows that crude inventories rose by 6.6 million barrels. This substantial rise in crude stocks comes as a surprise to market analysts and investors, who had forecasted a much smaller increase of just 0.6 million barrels

The unexpected surge in crude inventories is starkly different from the previous report, which indicated a decrease of 1.7 million barrels. This shift from a decline to a substantial rise in crude stock levels suggests a potential change in U.S. petroleum demand dynamics. Typically, an increase in crude inventories that exceeds expectations can imply weaker demand, which may exert bearish pressure on crude oil prices.

Brazil To Cut Tariffs on Capital, Technology Goods in April Where There Is No Domestic Output

Brazil’s government will automatically cut import tariffs in April on capital and technology goods affected by a duty hike earlier this year if companies claim there is no domestic production by the end of this month, a senior official said

JP Morgan Revises UK Forecasts, Delays BoE Rate Cut to 2027

JP Morgan on Tuesday revised its UK economic forecasts following sustained increases in energy prices, now expecting the Bank of England to delay rate cuts until the first quarter of 2027. The bank assumes oil prices will remain around $100 per barrel through the end of April before declining gradually toward $75 by year-end. Gas prices are projected to average close to €45 per megawatt-hour for 2026 based on recent futures curves.

JP Morgan now forecasts UK inflation to average 2.9% in the second half of 2026, up from a previous estimate of 2.2%. The bank estimates the direct impact on headline inflation will reach 0.6% by the third quarter of this year, with higher petrol and diesel prices accounting for 0.2% to 0.3% of the revision and domestic energy bills contributing 0.3% to 0.4%