Market commentary : Markets cautious as they await Indo-US trade deal

Markets await the outcome of imminent Indo-US bilateral trade deal. As President Donald Trump’s July 9 tariff deadline approaches, investor anxiety is also mounting over potential trade disruptions. President Trump announced on Thursday that his administration will begin dispatching letters to various countries starting Friday, detailing the import tariffs they must pay to access U.S. markets, if a bilateral trade deal is not reached by August 1^st.

At 2 p.m. Indian Standard Time, 7^th July, Nifty 50 is down by 11.20 points or 0.044%. Sensex is down by 30.45 points or 0.037%. Top 3 gainers at Nifty 50 at this time are Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consumer, and Jio Financial Services. Top 3 losers at this time are Tech Mahindra, BEL and Eternal.

Stocks of FMCG companies such as HUL are gaining today. This, after these companies gave out positive expectations regarding their June quarter results. BEL and some other defence stocks are seeing profit booking today after the gains of past 1 month.

All the broader market indices are in red at this time. Nifty Smallcap 100 index is the top loser at this time. It is down by 0.53%. Among sectoral indices, Nifty FMCG index is the top gainer. It is up by 1.53%. Nifty Media index is the top loser. It is down by 1.53%. Zee Entertainment’s stock seems to be seeing profit booking today.

Market breadth strongly negative

Market breadth is strongly negative at this time. 1067 stocks are advancing. 1742 stocks are declining. 112 stocks remain unchanged.

Markets expecting a trade deal between India and United States to happen soon

Round-the-clock negotiations between Indian and American officials in Washington have raised hopes of sealing a deal within 48 hours. However, uncertainty persists about when a comprehensive trade agreement will materialise. The tight timeline has heightened concerns about what the coming days might bring for bilateral commerce.

Adding to market pressures, robust U.S. jobs data has dimmed expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut, further dampening investor sentiment.

June quarter earnings season kicks off next week

On the domestic front, India Inc.’s first-quarter earnings season for FY26 kicks off next week, with IT giants TCS and Tata Elxsi scheduled to announce results on July 10, followed by retail major DMart on July 11.

Meanwhile, positive monsoon developments offered some relief. India recorded above-normal southwest monsoon rainfall in June 2025, with cumulative precipitation 8.9% higher than the long-period average. This has boosted kharif crop sowing by a robust 11% year-on-year.

However, regulatory action cast a shadow over market sentiment. SEBI barred U.S.-based quantitative trading firm Jane Street and four affiliates from Indian markets on July 3, impounding Rs 4,840 crore in alleged unlawful gains. The regulator’s 105-page order accused the firm of manipulating expiry-day movements in Nifty and Bank Nifty indices to mislead traders and profit from options positions.

Disclaimer : This content is only for informational purpose. It does not make any recommendation to act or invest.

Source: NSE