Nvidia Earnings Set to Ripple into Indian Markets After Lifting HKSE, Korea, Japan Stocks

Mumbai, Aug 26: Asian stocks pushed higher on Wednesday as falling oil prices dragged bond yields down on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan up 0.85 per cent, Japan’s Nikkei gaining 0.7 per cent and the tech-heavy KOSPI rising one per cent, even as investors braced for Nvidia’s much-awaited second-quarter results. India’s own Nifty 50 had earlier been trading softer, down about 0.3 per cent, alongside weakness in the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and the Hang Seng, as tech jitters built ahead of the Nvidia report.  

Brent crude fell more than two per cent to $86.41 a barrel on prospects of more oil supply through the strait, which handled a fifth of global traded oil before the six-month Iran conflict began. That combination of softer crude, lower yields and Nvidia-driven caution has become the dominant cross-current steering Asian, and by extension Indian, trading desks this week.  

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) enters its results with analysts expecting an 82.8 per cent jump in third-quarter sales guidance to $104.20 billion and adjusted gross margins holding near 75 per cent, though J.P. Morgan analysts flagged the report was likely to be “supportive of the AI trade” without giving semiconductor stocks a material near-term boost. The stock has climbed only around 12 per cent year-to-date through late July despite record revenue, a muted gain that underlines how priced-for-perfection expectations have made even strong numbers hard to reward. Nvidia shares had already snapped a seven-day losing streak, closing up 2.2 per cent on Tuesday amid a broader rebound in semiconductor names including Marvell Technology. Options pricing suggests traders expect a smaller post-earnings swing than in previous quarters, hinting that the market increasingly treats Nvidia’s beats as routine rather than surprising. 

For Indian markets, Nvidia’s results function less as a direct earnings event and more as a global risk-sentiment trigger that flows through Gift Nifty, the Nifty IT index and broader FII positioning before Dalal Street even opens. Notably, when Nvidia rattles AI-linked valuations, as its recent 15 per cent price-hike announcement did, the fallout has typically triggered a relief rally in India’s software exporters, with the Nifty IT index edging higher on three of the last four sessions as investors rotate into “anti-AI bets.” That inverse relationship, where AI-capex anxiety abroad helps IT services names at home, sits alongside a more conventional correlation in which strong Nvidia numbers lift sentiment toward India’s own AI, semiconductor and data-centre-linked stocks. With US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium also due this week, Indian traders are likely to treat Wednesday’s Nvidia print as one input among several macro variables rather than an isolated catalyst. 

Probable effects on Indian stocks 

• Gift Nifty and opening tone: A strong Nvidia beat with confident guidance would likely support a firmer Gift Nifty and a positive opening for the Sensex and Nifty 50, mirroring the overnight lift already seen in the Nikkei and KOSPI; a muted or cautious guidance print could instead see index majors open flat to lower. 

• Nifty IT and services exporters: Infosys (NSE: INFY), TCS (NSE: TCS), HCLTech (NSE: HCLTECH), Wipro (NSE: WIPRO) and Tech Mahindra (NSE: TECHM) are the most direct read-through, both because they service US hyperscaler AI capex and, per recent trading patterns, because any AI-spending anxiety abroad has tended to redirect flows into these “safer” IT names. 

• Domestic semiconductor and AI-adjacent plays: Stocks such as Tata Elxsi (NSE: TATAELXSI), HCL Technologies’ engineering arms and smaller chip-design and electronics manufacturing services names could see sentiment-driven moves, tracking Nvidia’s tone on AI infrastructure demand even without direct revenue exposure. 

• Data-centre and power-linked names: Companies tied to India’s data-centre and power-infrastructure buildout, including Tata Power (NSE: TATAPOWER), Adani Power (NSE: ADANIPOWER) and NTPC (NSE: NTPC), could see incremental interest if Nvidia’s commentary reinforces confidence in sustained global AI infrastructure spending. 

• FII flow direction and the rupee: A strong Nvidia print supporting a “risk-on” Wall Street session typically encourages foreign institutional inflows into Asian and Indian equities and can offer marginal support to the rupee; a disappointing guidance number risks the opposite, pressuring FII flows and the currency in tandem with weaker US futures. 

• Broader index volatility around the Fed and inflation data: Because Nvidia’s results land alongside US inflation data and the run-up to the Jackson Hole symposium, Indian index-level reaction may be amplified or muted depending on how bond yields and the dollar index, currently near 98.934 and headed for a one per cent August decline, move in tandem with the earnings news. 

Overall, Nvidia’s report is likely to act as an amplifier rather than a standalone driver for Indian equities this week, reinforcing whichever direction crude prices, the Hormuz negotiations and US inflation data are already pushing sentiment in, while giving IT and AI-infrastructure-linked stocks their most direct, sector-specific cue.