Wholesale prices in India deflate by 0.58% in July

14 August 2025: India’s wholesale price inflation in July stood at -0.58% on year-on-year basis. On month-on-month basis wholesale price inflation in the month stood at 0.39%.  Negative inflation means wholesale prices in July 2025 declined in comparison to that in July 2024.

The negative wholesale inflation rate in July 2025 is mainly attributable to lower prices for food articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, and basic metals, etc.

It is anticipated that the WPI will decline further more (around -0.30) in the coming weeks. Even with spotty monsoons, a robust spring harvest has allowed India to keep food prices in check, extending the country’s longest disinflation episode in more than 10 years.

According to a government report this week, India’s retail inflation fell to 1.55% in July, its lowest rate in more than eight years, with food price declines contributing significantly to this trend.

 RBI’s Outlook

The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank suggested that the inflation is expected to rise in the last quarter of FY26 largely due to volatile food prices and uncertain global trade conditions. For the entire financial year, the RBI has forecasted 3.1% inflation rate, lowering the previous forecast of 3.70% (in June). The rate will be close to 4.9% in the first quarter of FY27, exceeding the 4% target.

RBI suggested that the risk to the projections and inflation outlook are moderate and equally balanced. The core inflation has been around the 4% mark, considered stable.

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Source:https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2156270#:~:text=Index%20Numbers%20of%20Wholesale%20Price,Base%20Year%3A%202011%2D12)&text=Month%2Dover%2DMonth%20Change%20in,provisional)%20in%20July%2C%202025.