Crude Oil Slides 2.4% to $95.41 as OPEC+ Output Surge and US Inventory Build Overpower Hormuz Risk Premium

Mumbai, 14 November 2026: Brent crude futures settled at $95.41 per barrel on Friday, down 2.4% for the week, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) December futures closed at $88.52, registering a weekly decline of approximately 2.5%. Rising OPEC+ production and an unexpected 4.66-million-barrel increase in US commercial crude inventories ultimately outweighed concerns about possible disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Both benchmarks recorded their second consecutive weekly decline. Brent touched a weekly low of $91.49 on Tuesday, 10 November, its lowest close since mid-September, before recovering towards the end of the week. The recovery remained limited as inventory figures and evidence of increasing global supply reinforced expectations that the physical oil market could remain adequately supplied. The week’s movement reflected the competing influence of geopolitical developments and underlying supply-demand fundamentals.

Brent Falls as OPEC+ Adds 1.96 Million Barrels per Day

Brent began the week under pressure following the previous week’s sharp correction. BMCE Capital Global Research, in its commodity weekly published on 9 November, reported that Brent had declined 10.68% to $93.76 per barrel, while WTI had fallen 10.10% to $86.83. These concerns continued to influence trading during the week ending 13 November.

OPEC+ output surged by 1.96 million bpd to 27.16 million bpd in October, strengthening concerns over rising supply. Saudi Arabia led the increase, with production climbing 26% month-on-month to 10.56 million bpd from 8.37 million bpd in September, slightly exceeding its OPEC quota and approaching pre-war levels. The rise heightened fears of additional supply entering the market despite ongoing geopolitical risks.

Brent’s weekly trading range extended from $91.49 on Tuesday to an intraday high of $96.21 on Friday. The largest daily gain came on Thursday, 12 November, when the benchmark rallied 3.3% to settle at $95.82. WTI also advanced during the session, gaining 2.55% to $88.74. Nevertheless, the weekly decline showed that investors continued to give greater weight to production trends and inventory data than to the temporary increase in geopolitical risk.

Hormuz Incidents and Stalled US-Iran Talks Trigger Thursday Rebound

Two supertankers were reportedly disabled by mine explosions in the Strait of Hormuz on 11 November, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy, raising concerns over the safety of a key global oil transit route. Verisk Maplecroft recorded 36 confirmed attacks in October, the highest monthly tally since the conflict began. Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and Yanbu facilities further heightened risks to shipping and energy infrastructure.

Diplomatic tensions added to the uncertainty, with the US signalling on 12 November that it would not pursue a near-term agreement with Iran. President Donald Trump said Washington no longer needed a deal with Tehran. Brent rallied 3.3% on Thursday on renewed geopolitical concerns but retreated on Friday as rising supply fears outweighed the risk premium.

Also Read: How To Invest In Crude Oil

EIA Reports 4.66-Million-Barrel Crude Build Against Expected Draw

The strongest bearish trigger was the EIA’s report of a 4.657-million-barrel rise in US crude inventories for the week ended 6 November, against expectations of a 1.1-million-barrel draw. This marked the first increase in six weeks. Gasoline stocks also rose by 1.799 million barrels, while distillate inventories climbed by around 4.07 million barrels, signalling that demand was struggling to absorb available supplies.

US crude production increased by 1 million bpd to 14.013 million bpd, while net imports rose by 32.4 million bpd week-on-week to 6.698 million bpd, adding to the inventory build. Further pressure came from Saudi Aramco’s decision to cut its December Arab Light selling price to Asia by $2 per barrel, taking the differential to its lowest level since May 2020 and signalling intensifying competition for market share.

MCX Crude Trades Near ₹8,437 as Rupee Weakness Cushions Global Decline

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the November crude oil futures contract, due to expire on 19 November 2026, traded at ₹8,437 per barrel on Monday, 9 November. This was ₹117, or 1.37%, below the previous close of ₹8,554. Its open interest stood at 7,898 lots, while trading volume reached 10,204 lots, indicating active participation as traders responded to supply developments and geopolitical headlines.

The MCX Crude Oil Mini contract broadly tracked the benchmark’s direction, although liquidity remained concentrated in the November expiry. Traders monitored international crude prices, currency movements and the expiry of the domestic contract while assessing the impact of the week’s developments on local futures.

The rupee’s depreciation to 94.16 against the US dollar by Friday, from 93.94 at the beginning of the week, offered a partial cushion to domestic crude prices. However, the decline in dollar-denominated oil prices was large enough to offset the currency weakness during the week. As a result, domestic futures did not necessarily mirror the full percentage decline in Brent and WTI.

Indian Crude Basket Falls to $89.29, Easing Import Cost Pressure

The Indian Crude Basket (ICB), the benchmark used to track the cost of India’s crude oil imports, fell to $89.29 per barrel by Friday, 13 November, compared with an average of approximately $120 per barrel in October, according to data tracked by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The basket averaged $100.01 per barrel in November, down 17% from October’s $119.91. It was quoted at $96.39 on 6 November.

India could benefit from lower crude prices as it imports around 85% of its oil requirements. With the current account deficit estimated at about 1% of GDP, cheaper oil could ease external pressures, although the impact will depend on import volumes, exchange rates and other commodity prices.

The RBI’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report estimated that a 10% decline in crude prices below its $85-per-barrel baseline could lower inflation by around 50 basis points and boost real GDP growth by 15 basis points. However, the benefits will depend on how quickly lower global prices are passed on to domestic consumers, factoring in refining costs, rupee movements, taxes and retail pricing decisions.

Petrol and Diesel Prices Remain Unchanged Across Major Cities

Retail petrol and diesel prices across India’s major metropolitan cities remained unchanged during the week ending Friday, 13 November. Oil marketing companies (OMCs), including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum, made no revisions under the daily dynamic fuel-pricing mechanism. Consumers therefore did not receive an immediate benefit from the decline in international crude prices.

In Delhi, petrol was priced at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20. Mumbai quoted petrol at ₹103.54 and diesel at ₹90.03 per litre. Kolkata’s rates stood at ₹113.51 for petrol and ₹99.82 for diesel, while Chennai recorded ₹107.74 and ₹99.55, respectively. Bengaluru quoted petrol at ₹110.93 and diesel at ₹98.80 per litre. In Hyderabad, petrol was priced at ₹115.73 and diesel at ₹103.82.

The differences between cities reflect the impact of state-level taxation, transportation costs and dealer commissions. Petrol and diesel remain outside the Goods and Services Tax framework, leaving states to apply their own VAT structures. Central excise duty also contributes to the final pump price, resulting in substantial differences between states despite a common international crude benchmark.

OMC Pricing Freeze Insulates Consumers from Global Crude Volatility

The transmission from international crude prices to Indian retail fuel rates remained limited during the week. Brent’s 2.4% decline and the rupee’s depreciation to 94.16 did not result in any revision in petrol or diesel prices. The overall reduction in the Indian crude basket indicated that the landed cost of crude had eased, even though currency depreciation partly offset the benefit.

Refining costs, central and state taxes, dealer commissions and OMC pricing decisions determine the final retail price. Since taxes make up a substantial part of the pump price, changes in the crude component do not translate proportionately into changes for consumers. This limits the immediate effect of international price movements on household fuel expenditure.

OMCs can also adjust marketing margins instead of passing every movement in international prices through to retail buyers. The unchanged rates during the week therefore reflected the managed and lagged nature of domestic fuel-price transmission. Companies may consider the broader movement in crude costs and their marketing economics before deciding whether a retail revision is warranted.

Dollar Strength and Fed Rate Expectations Add Pressure on Oil

The US dollar’s rise to 103.17 on the ICE US Dollar Index by Friday, 13 November, added another headwind for crude prices. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for buyers using other currencies and can weigh on demand, particularly in price-sensitive importing economies. The dollar’s movement also reflected changing expectations about US monetary policy.

Markets assigned an 89% probability to a December rate increase, while US Treasury yields moved higher. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.135%, raising concerns that tighter financial conditions could slow economic activity and fuel consumption. Higher borrowing costs can also affect investment and industrial production, adding to uncertainty about future energy demand.

The dollar remained firmly supported despite some stabilisation in crude prices on Friday. Geopolitical risks provided intermittent support, but the broader macroeconomic environment made it difficult for crude to sustain a recovery above the week’s trading range. The combination of a stronger dollar and concerns about slower demand reinforced the pressure from rising inventories.

China’s Demand Remains Cautious Despite Increased Atlantic Basin Buying

China’s crude imports recovered modestly as independent refiners used year-end quotas to buy Brazilian oil, supported by lower freight rates and improved vessel availability. Vortexa data showed laden VLCC and Suezmax vessels in East Asia rising 15% since early September. However, refinery activity remained weak, with China’s main refinery run rate at 73.53%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Shandong independent refinery runs stood at 53.85%.

The IEA, EIA and OPEC also lowered their 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts in November. OPEC projected growth of just 180,000 bpd, reinforcing concerns that demand may not keep pace with additional supply returning to the market as OPEC+ restores production.

Brent’s weekly decline reflects ample supply and softer demand outweighing geopolitical risks. Traders will watch OPEC+ production, US inventory releases and developments around the Strait of Hormuz. In India, the falling crude basket could eventually ease import costs, but rupee weakness, taxes and OMC pricing decisions will determine whether consumers see lower pump prices over the coming weeks and months.