Gold Slides 3.5% as Hawkish Fed Bets Push Treasury Yields Higher; Silver Falls Below $51

Mumbai, 14 November 2026: Gold and silver ended the week lower as persistent US inflation concerns, rising Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed rate hikes weighed on bullion. Spot gold settled at $3,915.31 an ounce, down 3.5% for the week, after hitting a low of $3,872 on Thursday. Silver fell to $50.27 from $51.94 a week earlier.

Hotter-than-expected October US CPI data pushed the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December to 89%, while the odds of a 50-basis-point increase stood at 11%. Higher rate expectations lifted bond yields and strengthened the dollar, limiting gold’s modest Friday recovery.

Gold Slumps 3.5% as $3,872 Thursday Low Triggers Friday Rebound

Spot gold began the week near $4,085 an ounce on Monday, 9 November, but selling intensified as investors reassessed the US interest-rate outlook. Prices slipped below $4,000 on Wednesday before falling to $3,872 on Thursday. The decline accelerated as crude oil rose amid fading hopes of a Middle East peace agreement, reviving concerns that energy costs could keep inflation elevated and delay monetary easing.

Gold lost nearly 4% on Thursday as higher yields, a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand weighed on prices. It recovered around 1% on Friday, trading at $3,915.31 an ounce by 0322 GMT. US December gold futures stood at $3,919.60. The $4,000 mark, previously support, has become resistance, while the break below $3,895 weakened near-term momentum.

Silver Drops 3% on Thursday as Solar Demand Concerns Weigh

Silver opened the week around $52.50 an ounce before weakening alongside gold. Prices fell about 3% on Thursday to around $50 as investors reduced precious-metal exposure amid rising US yields and a stronger dollar. Silver recovered 0.5% on Friday to $50.27, but remained below the previous week’s $51.94 close.

A research assessment published Friday projected total silver demand could decline 5% in 2026. Jewellery demand is expected to remain weak, while photovoltaic demand could fall 21% as solar manufacturers reduce silver use or substitute other materials. Industrial demand is projected to decline 3%. Lower-than-expected solar installations in China have added to concerns. Although mine supply remains constrained, weaker consumption expectations have limited silver’s ability to benefit from its precious-metal status.

MCX Gold Ends at ₹1,36,279 as December Futures Swing ₹1,185

On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), December gold futures settled at ₹1,36,279 per 10 grams on Friday, 13 November. The contract rose as much as ₹1,185, or 0.87%, to ₹1,37,420 intraday before settling lower. The movement reflected volatility in international bullion prices.

The December contract remained the key domestic futures benchmark, with activity influenced by volume and open interest as expiry approached. Gold Mini contracts broadly followed its direction. The rupee’s depreciation to 94.16 against the US dollar offered some support by making imported gold costlier in local currency. This partly cushioned the impact of falling international prices, but did not remove pressure on futures.

Also Read: Check list of Gold ETFs in India

MCX Silver Settles at ₹1,78,848 per kg as Demand Concerns Bite

MCX December silver futures settled at ₹1,78,848 per kilogram on Friday, remaining under pressure as international prices slipped towards $50 an ounce. The decline reflected broad precious-metal weakness and concerns about silver’s industrial demand. Its exposure to manufacturing, electronics and solar-panel production has made investors particularly sensitive to forecasts of lower consumption.

Silver Mini contracts also tracked the benchmark’s weakness. The rupee’s fall offered some support to domestic prices, given India’s dependence on imported bullion, but could not offset lower global prices. Traders remained cautious about fresh long positions as the demand outlook was reassessed.

24K Gold Holds Above ₹1.37 Lakh in Mumbai and Delhi

Retail gold prices in major Indian cities remained elevated despite the international correction. In Mumbai and Chennai, 24-karat gold was quoted at ₹13,849 per gram, while Mumbai’s 10-gram price stood at ₹1,37,620. Delhi’s rate was ₹13,864 per gram, or ₹1,37,380 for 10 grams.

In Mumbai, 22-karat gold was priced at ₹12,695 per gram, against ₹12,710 in Delhi. The corresponding 18-karat prices were ₹10,387 and ₹10,402. Domestic prices include import duties and taxes. The effective import tax burden is around 15%, comprising 10% basic customs duty and 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess. Banks also pay 3% IGST upfront, taking the combined burden to approximately 18.4%. Making charges and dealer margins are additional, so MCX futures cannot be directly compared with retail jewellery rates.

City-Wise Gold Rates Diverge Across Mumbai, Delhi and Jaipur

Retail petrol and diesel prices across India’s major metropolitan cities remained completely unchanged through the week ending Friday, 13 November, with oil marketing companies (OMCs)—Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL)—making no revisions under the daily dynamic fuel pricing mechanism. In Delhi, petrol was priced at ₹102.12 per litre and diesel at ₹95.20 per litre; Mumbai quoted ₹103.54 per litre for petrol and ₹90.03 per litre for diesel; Kolkata stood at ₹113.51 per litre for petrol and ₹99.82 per litre for diesel; and Chennai recorded ₹107.74 per litre for petrol and ₹99.55 per litre for diesel. Bengaluru quoted ₹110.93 per litre for petrol and ₹98.80 per litre for diesel, while Hyderabad recorded ₹115.73 per litre for petrol and ₹103.82 per litre for diesel.

These retail prices include central excise duty, state-level Value Added Tax (VAT), dealer commissions, and transportation costs, and petrol and diesel remain outside the Goods and Services Tax (GST) framework, meaning state taxation differences are a primary driver of city-level price dispersion.Silver Retail Prices Stay Near ₹2 Lakh per kg Despite Global Slide

Retail silver prices in Delhi and Mumbai were quoted at around ₹1,99,900 per kilogram on Friday. The corresponding rates were ₹1,999 for 10 grams and ₹19,990 for 100 grams. These prices remained above the MCX December futures settlement of ₹1,78,848 per kilogram. The difference reflects costs involved in supplying physical silver, including import-related taxes, dealer margins and local premiums.

Other providers quoted approximately ₹1,85,052 per kilogram in Mumbai and ₹1,85,127 in Delhi. Variations can arise from calculation methods and whether taxes or levies are included. Ahmedabad, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Kolkata also showed regional differences, generally around ₹100 to ₹200 per kilogram.

Fed’s December Hike Odds Reach 89% After Hot CPI; Treasury Yield Hits 5.135%

US inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary were central to the bullion sell-off. After the hotter-than-expected October CPI release on 10 November, CME FedWatch showed an 89% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December and an 11% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Policymakers reinforced expectations of further tightening. New York Fed President John Williams said on Thursday that additional increases were likely, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated a 50-basis-point December hike might be necessary.

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported at least two more 25-basis-point increases. Goldman Sachs added a further hike in March 2027 to its expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.135%, its highest since 21 October and its steepest weekly increase since April 2025. The two-year yield rose 0.32 percentage points to 4.85%, its largest weekly rise since late 2024. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, which generate no interest income.

Also Read: How to Invest in Gold for Beginners: Simple Start Guide

Dollar Index Rises to 103.17 as Rupee Weakens to 94.16

The US dollar strengthened as markets adjusted rate expectations. The ICE US Dollar Index rose 0.3% to 103.17 on Friday, its highest since April 2025. It moved above 103 on Thursday, a level not seen since the period surrounding the US administration’s Liberation Day tariff announcement. Dollar gains made bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.

The rupee weakened to 94.16 against the dollar from around 93.94 at the start of the week. Higher US yields and crude oil movements weighed on the currency. A weaker rupee raises the landed cost of imported gold and silver, limiting how much international price declines are passed on to Indian buyers. Currency depreciation therefore cushioned domestic bullion prices even as global prices fell. The dollar’s reported 52-week range extended from 95.55 to 103.07, with 103.5 emerging as a level to watch.

China Adds 25.8 Tonnes of Gold in October, Extending Buying Streak

On the demand side, China’s crude oil imports showed only a modest recovery, with independent refiners rushing to use year-end import quotas and snapping up millions of barrels of Brazilian crude as freight rates from the Atlantic Basin fell sharply from record highs.

Vortexa data showed the number of laden mainstream very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and Suezmaxes in East Asia up about 15% since early September, improving vessel availability and pulling Asian buyers back to Atlantic Basin grades.

However, China’s main refinery run rate stood at 73.53%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, while Shandong independent refinery runs were at 53.85%, reflecting a still-sluggish domestic demand picture. The International Energy Agency (IEA), EIA, and OPEC all downgraded their 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts in November, with OPEC’s estimate unchanged at just 180,000 bpd for the year—a pace far too slow to absorb the recovering OPEC+ supply.

Gold and silver remain vulnerable to elevated US yields and a stronger dollar. Traders will monitor upcoming US inflation data and Federal Reserve communication for direction. The $3,895 gold support and $50 silver threshold are important levels to watch. In India, rupee depreciation, import costs and festival demand will continue influencing domestic bullion prices and retail premiums in coming weeks.