Gift Nifty Points to Flat-to-Marginally Weak Open for Markets on Tuesday as Crude Slide Offsets Iran War Risk

Mumbai, July 27:  Gift Nifty futures held largely range-bound through Monday’s session, pointing to a flat-to-marginally-weak start for Nifty 50 and Sensex when Indian markets reopen at 9:15 am on Tuesday, July 28, even as a sharp slide in crude oil prices offered some cushion against the risk of the Iran-US conflict resuming after the pause.

The near-month August 25, 2026 contract of Gift Nifty last traded at 24,034.5, down 7.5 points, or 0.03 per cent, on the day. Separately, the same contract was quoted at 24,068.00, down 6.50 points, or 0.03 per cent, moments apart, while the far-month September 29, 2026 contract held unchanged at 24,933.50. Both readings point to a broadly flat opening bias for Tuesday, with the modest overnight decline largely offsetting any lift from the pullback in crude prices. 

Gift Nifty Intraday 

The near-month contract opened Monday’s session at 23,900.5 and slipped to a low of 23,900.5 in early trade, before climbing steadily through the day to touch an intraday high of 24,050. It pared some of those gains into the close, settling near 24,034.5, still down marginally on the day. Support is placed at 23,900.5 (Monday’s low) and resistance at 24,050 (Monday’s high), with Indian benchmark indices likely to open in the 23,950-24,050 zone on Tuesday, tracking Gift Nifty’s late-session recovery. 

Iran War Updates 

The United States has paused its strikes on Iran since late Friday without any official announcement, while Tehran said it had halted retaliatory strikes and was engaging in talks with Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran separately warned Ukraine that its attacks on Iranian assets in the Caspian Sea “cannot go unanswered,” even as Tehran said Washington remained “stuck and struggling” in a war it did not choose. Despite the pause in direct US-Iran strikes, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed fresh attacks over the weekend on facilities linked to Saudi Aramco at the Red Sea ports of Jizan and Yanbu. The fragile calm between Washington and Tehran, now in its third day, has yet to translate into any formal ceasefire or resumption of diplomatic talks, and markets remain wary that either side could resume hostilities without much warning, as has happened repeatedly through the course of this conflict. 

Investors are also tracking political developments in Washington, where opposition lawmakers have stepped up efforts to cut off further war funding and press for a troop withdrawal, adding another layer of uncertainty to how the conflict eventually winds down. Analysts said markets are likely to stay headline-driven through the week, with any sign of the pause breaking down capable of triggering sharp swings in both oil and Indian equities. 

Oil Prices 

Brent crude fell sharply to $90.28 a barrel on Monday, down 8.23 per cent from the previous session, while the US crude benchmark slid 7.69 per cent to $83.51 a barrel, as the pause in US-Iran hostilities eased fears of a prolonged shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. Even after Monday’s sharp fall, both benchmarks remain up nearly 40 per cent for the month, reflecting the scale of the supply-side disruption triggered by the conflict since early July. The decline in crude, a key overnight positive for India given its heavy reliance on oil imports, comes even as shipping through the Red Sea remains clouded by the Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure over the weekend. 

Gift Nifty’s flattish close on Monday suggests Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open without a strong directional bias on Tuesday, with the sharp fall in crude oil prices providing some support even as investors stay watchful of whether the US-Iran pause holds through the week. Should the ceasefire-like calm break down or the Houthi attacks on Saudi assets escalate further, sentiment could turn quickly, given how sharply oil prices and equity markets have swung through the course of the conflict so far. 

Source

• nseix.com