Gift Nifty Points to a Cautiously Positive Open on Thursday as Oil Stays Above $100

Mumbai, Sept 10: Indian markets look set to open cautiously positive on Thursday, even as the broader global backdrop remains distinctly unfriendly. Gift Nifty’s modest uptick comes despite a sharply weaker session across Asian and US markets overnight, a divergence that speaks more to India playing catch-up after three straight days of losses than to any genuine improvement in risk appetite. 

The dominant story remains oil, which crossed the $100 a barrel psychological threshold in the previous session for the first time since July. Brent crude
remained above $100 a barrel  after Iran and the US traded their heaviest wave of attacks on Gulf shipping since the six-month-old war began, with Iran
striking ten vessels near the Strait of Hormuz hours after US forces sank five Iranian oil tankers. For a market already digesting a three-month low, that kind of escalation in the world’s most critical oil chokepoint is not a headline traders can shrug off easily. 

Compounding the unease is a genuinely weak read from overnight markets. Wall Street closed lower across the board on Wednesday, and Asian markets are extending those losses into Thursday trade, as surging crude prices revive fears that a hotter inflation print could force the Federal Reserve’s hand on rates. That question gets answered soon: US inflation data lands on September 11, and it’s shaping up to be the week’s single most consequential data point for global risk sentiment. 

Put together, Thursday’s setup is a study in contrasts, a mildly positive Gift Nifty signal sitting atop a genuinely fragile global backdrop. Whether that cautious optimism holds through the session likely depends on how Gulf tensions evolve through the day and whether oil’s climb toward $100-plus stabilizes or accelerates further. 

Gift Nifty Figures 

As of 8:18 AM IST on Thursday, September 10, Gift Nifty futures for the September 29 expiry were trading at 23,495.50, up 78.50 points, or 0.34%, from the previous close. The move suggests a modestly positive opening for the Nifty 50 when Indian markets begin trading, a tentative attempt at stabilization after three consecutive sessions of steep declines. 

Iran War 

Iran said on Wednesday it had attacked ten ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers, marking the biggest wave of shipping attacks by both sides since the war began. At least one seafarer was reported killed and another listed as missing after a tanker was struck near Dubai. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it would sharply escalate its response to any further attacks and said it would soon release maps of a new, enlarged off-limits sea zone extending as far as Chabahar, near Pakistan. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen as low as 2 million barrels per day, according to Rystad Energy, down sharply from 8-9 million bpd just before fighting resumed on August 30. 

Asian Markets on Thursday Morning 

Asian markets are trading broadly lower on Thursday morning, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng falling 1.24% and Australia’s All Ordinaries down 1.52%, among the region’s steepest declines. Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 0.84%, while Malaysia’s KLCI and Pakistan’s KSE 100 fell 0.51% and 0.40% respectively. Vietnam’s HNX 30 and Thailand’s SET both declined 0.79% and 0.25%, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite was comparatively resilient, slipping just 0.07%. Asian markets declined on Thursday morning, tracking losses on Wall Street, as surging crude oil prices stoked inflation concerns and raised fears of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. 

US Markets on Wednesday 

US markets closed lower across the board on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 405.41 points, or 0.77%, to 52,380.66. The S&P 500 dropped 0.48% to 7,636.36 and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.64% to 26,253.34, as surging oil prices and escalating Gulf tensions weighed on sentiment ahead of Thursday’s inflation data. 

Oil Prices 

Oil prices remained elevated on Thursday morning, with WTI Crude up 0.19% to $96.23 a barrel, while Brent Crude eased slightly by 0.18% to $101.03 after breaching the $100 mark for the first time since July. Murban Crude was the standout gainer, surging 4.95% to $116.25, while WTI Midland jumped 3.97%, reflecting the broader surge in crude following the latest round of Gulf shipping attacks. 

Wednesday’s Close 

Indian equity benchmarks extended their losing streak to three sessions on Wednesday, falling to a three-month low as oil breached $100 a barrel. The Sensex ended 813.35 points, or 1.08%, lower at 74,764.23, while the Nifty 50 declined 203.60 points, or 0.86%, to close at 23,431.50. The Nifty IT index was the biggest sectoral drag, falling more than 3% as Infosys, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra and Wipro led the Nifty laggards. Metal and energy were the only sectoral indices to buck the broader weakness, offering limited support amid otherwise broad-based selling. 

Source

• nseindia.com
• https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-attacks-us-base-jordan-ships-near-hormuz-after-tankers-sunk-2026-09-09/
• https://www.oilprice.com
• https://www.reuters.com/markets/stocks/asia-pacific/